NXN At-Large Bids

I'm interested to see what Watchout has to say out of the teams so far who are on the bubble.

However, it's really hard to say who deserves to go until all the regional meets have been finished.

Watchout has already posted on Dyestat his thoughts on the possible at larges of the regions already ran.

It really depends on what happens at the rest of the regional races.

The committee has historically done a few predictable things, at least on the girls' side:

1. Always at least 2 at large slots to CA and NY combined. NY consistently proves that this is justified by performances at NXN, though CA teams consistently turn in performances revealing that they have been over-rated on the basis of fast times on track-like courses at sea level.

2. Often one more slot to CA or NY and one to the closest-third-place team across the other regions, or two slots to the closest third placers.

3. The rules now say that they pay attention to teams that have recently beaten other qualifying teams (a la NCAA) though they've not really done that in the past.

4. Correctly, in my opinion, they pay little or no attention to rankings, none of which are based on rigorous statistical methods.

That said, Utah clearly deserves some consideration on the boy's side this year!

Olympicbound wrote:

Hinsdale?

Hinsdale did win IL state this year over Sandburg (#1 in midwest) although Sandburg had their 1 bad race of the year that day. And hinsdale only managed 6th in the midwest, aka far away from qualifying (their #1 runner fell but thats at most ~20 points which wouldn't move them up much) While they were favorites for a qualifying spot ( i still had them #2-3 behind Sandburg and possibly Carmel)

I would personally actually rather see York (Kroy XC club) get the bid. they have had an absolutely unbelievable post season. tieing for 5th at their sectional and almost not qualifying for state then getting 6th in state and now 3rd in the midwest.. its some of that York magic.

As for the others I really only follow the midwest and can't say anything about the other regions.

I think California will get one at-large on the boys side. I think Great Oak, Saugus and Burroughs will all go. On the girls side, Great Oak and Saugus.

My bets are:

Boys: CA#3, NY#3 and then SW#3, CA#4, NW#3, and NY#4 fighting it out for two spots.

Kamakin had the chance to race SW#1, 2, 3, or 4 at Bob Firman and didn\'t, however they\'re still pretty strong and have beat NC. CA is impossible to predict as it\'s wide open right now. None of the CA teams ex. Great Oak have gone out of state tho. That being said nike always picks at least one at large from CA and I don\'t see anything stopping that this year.

Girls: NY#3, SW#3, and then wide open. I don\'t think CA #3, #4 are as strong as they usually are but we\'ll see these next two weeks.

Overall my opinion is that this would be a much better meet if there was a more open selection process.

I'm from Illinois, so may be biased, but I'd say the Palatine girls (NOT a team I have any connection to) are in a very very strong position. They finished just 6 points out of 2nd, and 16 behind winning Carmel girls. Carmel has been ranked very highly, and finished NXN very highly last 2 years. Palatine was also way ahead (76pts) of 4th place Birmingham Seaholm (MI - so previously unable to compete out of state let alone region), and ahead of OH champs and an overall very strong field.

I really can NOT see how they'd be left out this year, barring some very bizarre set of circumstances.

On the other hand, York boys are a tough call. They struggled most of season, and really rallied at Midwest meet. They still finished far back of 2nd, but they have a great record at past NXN meets.

NY #3 will probably be St.Anthony's and #4 should be Mendon.

I don't know if Mendon is strong based on how much they lost the Fed meet by.

Now- how much training are FM and Liverpool losing because of the snow storm? Syracuse got a lot of snow ...

Could that mess things up?

True the CA kids don't always run as well as they are potentially ranked, but much of that is because the CA kids have to race qualifying meets on 4 consecutive weekends. How many other states are asked to do that and turn in their best performance on the 4th weekend?

Weekend 1: Prelims

Weekend 2: Finals

Weekend 3: State

Weekend 4: NXN

No snow in Syracuse. Only impacted southern area surrounding Buffalo and did not hit city of Buffalo or Rochester area (Mendon).

gochi wrote:

I think California will get one at-large on the boys side. I think Great Oak, Saugus and Burroughs will all go. On the girls side, Great Oak and Saugus.

Agree re: the girls. Great Oak, Saugus and maybe Capistrano Valley.

For the boys, in D1 Great Oak (12th at State in D1 last season) has not looked like the same team of late. Their early-season #2 guy, Spencer Dodds, has had steadily declining performances in his past 3-4 meets after sustaining a concussion and getting bronchitis at the same time. Hopefully he'll rebound, as he's a phenomenal talent, but if he ends up outside of their top-5 Burroughs (didn't make state meet last season) and Madera South (2nd behind Arcadia in D1 last season at State) have a good shot at jumping ahead of them at the state meet. The nod goes to Madera since they have more experience in big meets and are less likely to get stung by nerves than Burroughs is.

In D2, it will be extremely hard for Saugus (they did win D2 at State last season) to get ahead of Canyon (4th at State D2 last season), Ventura (didn't make it to State meet) and especially Jurupa Hills (won D3 at State last season). Jurupa Hills comes on very strong at the end of the season and are looking better than Great Oak right now, as they look to be just trying to hold on.

In D3, Brea-Olinda (second at State D3 last season) is favored to win state over strong teams from Agoura (not at State last season) and Palos Verdes (third in D3 state last season).

My guess for the boys: Madera South from D1, Jurupa Hills from D2, Brea-Olinda from D3. Not sure who'll need the at-large.

over rated or over raced? wrote:

True the CA kids don't always run as well as they are potentially ranked, but much of that is because the CA kids have to race qualifying meets on 4 consecutive weekends. How many other states are asked to do that and turn in their best performance on the 4th weekend?

Weekend 1: Prelims

Weekend 2: Finals

Weekend 3: State

Weekend 4: NXN

This is correct, plus anyone who calls California Courses "track like" has never run a Southern Section lead up to state. Mt. Sac is simply brutal and two of the final three weeks are run on that course. Woodward is not an easy course for the state meet. Illinois and Washington are two courses I can think of off the top of my head with easier state courses than Woodward. For the record, I'm a coach, but not from California. I have been to the California courses though, in addition to the others mentioned here.

over rated or over raced? wrote:

True the CA kids don't always run as well as they are potentially ranked, but much of that is because the CA kids have to race qualifying meets on 4 consecutive weekends. How many other states are asked to do that and turn in their best performance on the 4th weekend?

How many teams are truly national class one weekend (CA State, in your example) but not the next?

Every state has its own challenges in getting to the line ready to go on the day, and no truly national class team has to race all-out just to advance to their state meet.

Dead Sea Legs wrote:

This is correct, plus anyone who calls California Courses "track like" has never run a Southern Section lead up to state. Mt. Sac is simply brutal and two of the final three weeks are run on that course. Woodward is not an easy course for the state meet. Illinois and Washington are two courses I can think of off the top of my head with easier state courses than Woodward. For the record, I'm a coach, but not from California. I have been to the California courses though, in addition to the others mentioned here.

I am also a coach (not high school) and have raced on the Mt Sac course. I would not call it brutal. More than half of the course is fast as a track... that is just a fact.

If CA believes having an extra week in their schedule would help, they are free to add it.

I might be a little biased seeing as I am from the Washington. But how does Kamiakin not get in? They were just 14 points from the winner and 10 points from second place? York was waaaaaay far back from qualifying at sixth at state.

I am NW'er wrote:

I might be a little biased seeing as I am from the Washington. But how does Kamiakin not get in? They were just 14 points from the winner and 10 points from second place? York was waaaaaay far back from qualifying at sixth at state.

Honestly yes they were far back from getting 2nd although Sandburg and Carmel were in a different league that day, but the fact that they got 6th at state is almost in my mind a bonus. they just beat Hinsdale (#1 at IL state), Neuqua Valley (#4 at IL state), Lyons Township (#3 at IL state), essentially finishing 2nd at IL state during that meet. It shows that their team is absolutely on fire right now. After being ranked pretty lowly (in the state) and then almost failing to qualify for state (tied for 5th at their sectional) they proceeded to get 6th at state out of no where and then continued it into a 3rd place at NXN midwest beating 4 out of the 5 teams they finished behind at the state meet.

Unionville.

They were ranked #1 in the nation for a long time last year, but a few girls got mono. Even though they lost their top three runners, I think they'll make it.

runn wrote:

NY #3 will probably be St.Anthony's and #4 should be Mendon.

I don't know if Mendon is strong based on how much they lost the Fed meet by.

Now- how much training are FM and Liverpool losing because of the snow storm? Syracuse got a lot of snow ...

Could that mess things up?

Mendon is solid this year and are the favorites for #4, but they'll have to race much better than they did at Feds to advance. Overall, NY drops off pretty hard after St. Anthony's. 4-10 are all pretty close, IMO. Shen beat Mendon in the states merge but raced poorly at Feds, so who knows.

And at this point, I don't think the snow would make a significant difference seeing as there is only a (presumably) light training week remaining.