Predict my marathon time

3:02:53

You won't go sub-3 which is your goal.

I think you go 2:56.

Curious, what's your goal and what did you go in your first marathon?

sf32r2 wrote:

3:02:53

You won't go sub-3 which is your goal.

Probably right. Why a 20 miler at marathon pace? That makes no sense.

3:02:52 is my prediction. the long runs are being done too fast.

Long runs too fast, tempo runs too slow. Noticed you didn't mention anything about pace or track work which makes me think you have not been developing your anaerobic endurance sufficiently.

I think you already raced your best marathon during your workout and will perform sub-par on the real race day. You will have a great race up to mile 20 or 21, crash and walk/jog the remained. 3:27:44.

I think I agree with this guy. If you don't blow up around 2:58.

you can still keep your long runs that pace just begin to adjust your tempo pace as you improve. keep the long run where it is until your tempo pace is somewhere around 6:15

Pretty bad training. Plus you didn't mention taper, which one can assume you will get wrong as well. I say 3:15, major blow up.

Okay, 6 weeks ago, my goal was 3:03 (enough cushion to ensure bq). But to be honest I do not know what my current capabilites are. That is why my long runs have been so fast relative to my other workouts. Trying to test the waters and see how that pace feels for extended times. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't thinking about going out at 3:00 pace.

I was doing some 0.5-1 mile repeats for speed work up until about 4 weeks ago. These kept resulting in little nagging injuries that interfered with the next workout, so I replaced them with more tempo runs. I seem to have no problem recovering from any of my current workous by the next day. I honestly think I have the speed, it's just a matter of keeping it up after 20 miles as you've suggested.

I understand your desire to test the waters, and so your training does not look that bad to me, especially since the race is still a month away. Thus, I do not think you have done damage. I also cannot see why one would predict a blow up. Sure, If you do not strategize and cannot control your pace, you (or anyone) runs the risk of blowing up. The 17:40 shows good fitness, and if I had run the 20 miler you did, it would give me confidence. I see you right around 3:00. You could posssibly go a bit under 3:00. I wish you well.

Going over your comments again, I cannot see a reason to think you could not be 2:59 or even 2:58. That 20-miler is a strong run. I would not go out at that pace, though. If I were running it, I would go out at 3:02-3:03 pace, and then let the race come to me. What is your PR in the half?

What is the point of testing the waters in a workout? Other than being the top dog on your team in training running group?

Your long run pace should be 7:30 MAX, ideally closer to 7:45 or even 8:00.

People like you have no business self-coaching.

'20 miles @ 6:52

- 5k race 5 weeks ago: 17:40'

------------------------------------------

Well I'd say that shows you have the speed and endurance to make it worth trying to break 3 hours unless the race is too hot or hilly

I agree with others that your long runs are too fast and 20 at sub-3 pace is ridiculous and even stupid. But I think the more important question is how are you recovering from those long runs? If you're wiped out from those long runs then back off quickly as you might have left your best effort in training. But if you're recovering well from workout to workout I see no reason why you shouldn't go for sub-3. My advice would be to jump on a real, structured program for the last month like McMillan or Daniels or whatever you like and for the race try to be at the half around 1:31, hold 6:50-6:52 until mile 20k and go all out the last 10k. Report back with results

I really like this race plan, Big Dubs.

lol @ 5:40 wrote:

What is the point of testing the waters in a workout? Other than being the top dog on your team in training running group?

Your long run pace should be 7:30 MAX, ideally closer to 7:45 or even 8:00.

People like you have no business self-coaching.

Don't listen to this clown. If you run your long runs that slow, you will be slow. You should ease off a little bit though. Start out at 7:30 for the first 5 and then slowly work your way down to just under 7:00. Do a twenty your next two weeks like this and then a 2 week taper. If you have a month to go, pick out a canova type workout found here and substitute for your one of your tempo days. 3*3 miles at 6:45 to 6:35

If your long runs are truly at a training effort and not a race effort then I think you can easily get under 3. When I do my long runs around those times, I run under 2:50 to 2:55. I do a weekly Canova workout + tempo + long run and max out at 65 miles.

Recovery has been pretty good from the long runs. I run 7 miles easy on Sat., long run Sun., then 4-5 miles really easy on Mon. By Tuesday I'm feeling rested and ready to run harder again. I was planning another 18 mile run, and another 20, then a two week taper. I have no doubts a more structured plan would leave me more prepared, and I will probably do that next time around. Race day strategy is pretty similar to what you laid out. Go out conservative first half, then adjust by feel from there, and then again at mile 20.

I could not agree more--progression has been a key for me, perhaps *the* key for me. I used to go out too fast in both training runs and races, and now I do not fall into that trap. I run a lot of progression, and it has paid massive dividends.

I don't see how any of you could say his Long Runs are too fast when you don't know his fitness level ..

IMO -- a guy running 17:40 & running that fast consistently should be well under 3 on race day.

So, to the OP, 3 hours should be cake.

Close to 3:00, but no sub 3:00 on this attempt. Let us know what happens.