Sorry, but he's only going to win in NYC if Mutai and Kipsang absolutely implode. Mutai's NYC CR and Kipsang's 2:03:23 are both vastly superior to a 2:04:45 at Dubai, which is probably the fastest course in the history of record-eligible marathon courses. Desisa needs to be more than a minute faster on the Dubai course to be mentioned in the same breath as Mutai and Kipsang. There's a reason people with fast times at Dubai never replicate them elsewhere. My guess? He goes out too fast, fades, and gets passed by Meb (and others) a few miles from the finish, if he even makes it to the finish.