Balsdeepe wrote:
One last post before I get back to my parents' basement.
The buffs had a 20 seconds spread at prenats from 1-6. Below are the places for the runner 20 seconds behind 5th place each of the previous 4 seasons.
2013- 21st
2012- 15th
2011-8th
2010-13th
So basically, if they have a 20 second spread, they're going to put at least 5 in the top 20, possibly in the top 15.
They're definitely the team to beat, and by a wide margin. I agree with most points above, but this 20-second spread one is iffy.
Prenats this year was slow, tactical, and an 8k (duh). Just by pushing it to a 10k, the spread becomes 25 seconds. Nationals could be slow, but Prenats was abnormally slow this year, so the spread is larger than the 25 seconds indicates.
Also, we know a blow-up is possible. Winter was 28th at Prenats last year and 177 at NCAAs. Granted, their consistency and very strong 6th man makes that less likely.
I think a ~40 second spread at Nats is more realistic, see what that puts them at. Regardless, I don't see them losing this year.
I'm also curious if Saarel will be top guy come the end of the season or if Theroux will stay #1. Theroux was really impressive at Prenats.