The last K at Wisconsin is about 100 meters short. The sixth K (on the Men's 8K course) is maybe 25 meters short. The course is about 7875. That is my opinion.
I'm not sure about the Women's course. I think the last K is well short there as well.
None of this matters as long as the course is consistent in length year to year, which it is.
Races in September are September races and tell you very little. Look at what the NCAA winner did about that time of year.
In addition to A race, Hubbard won the B race in 24:24. However, that is probably misleading because he put all of his margin in after 6km. It was windy and the B race was thin at the front, so people did not want to go hard and either hang out alone in the front or break the wind for the others. The next several Syracuse guys also ran well in the B race, but Hubbard is probably their 5th man. Also, freshman Colin Bennie faded from the front group (three seconds off the lead at 6km) all the way back to 55th
The weather affected how the races were run; moderate pace for first 5km and then really hard to the finish. The last 2km is a bit short, probably about 70m, but they are also down hill, were down wind today and were very fast, with a number of runners dropping a lot of places.
For example, Atchoo back at 81st after being ten seconds back at 6km losing 25 seconds to the lead group. The same for Florida State who had a lot of guys up front well in to the race (Jack Goodwin was 10+ seconds up early and finished 48th). Luka Ndungu fell from 116 to 214 in that short 2km. Conversely, while Tyler Bryne did not place very high, he went from 141 to 102.
Finally, he is the place change of the top 5 (by finish) for each team; it can overstate the gain if a runner dropped out of the top 5 in that last 2km.
-108 Portland
-83 Washington
-69 Harvard
-65 Indiana
-45 Northern Arizona
-44 Arkansas
-43 North Carolina
-43 UCLA
-39 Lamar
-38 Wisconsin
-37 New Mexico
-29 Oklahoma
-26 Arizona
-26 Minnesota
-24 Providence
-19 Iowa State
-18 BYU
-16 Michigan State
-14 Illinois
-12 Iona
-11 Arizona State
-10 Boise State
-6 Weber State
4 Florida
8 Syracuse
12 Eastern Kentucky
18 Stanford
21 Georgia
21 Guelph
25 Texas A&M
29 Notre Dame
38 Columbia
41 Florida State
49 Princeton
56 William and Mary
57 Michigan
61 Dartmouth
Another attempt to squeeze the data. Four columns, average year of top 5, Change in scoring last 2km, Points (includes Guelph, sorry) and School. For Portland it is now or much later (all Seniors), while Wisconsin is 1.8 while Syracuse and Iona are just 2.6 (and Hubbard, who won the B race is only a Soph).
Yr Aavg, SR=4 Delta Places Score School
2.6 8 85 Syracuse
2.6 -12 158 Iona
1.8 -38 180 Wisconsin
4.0 -108 217 Portland
3.0 18 226 Stanford
3.6 -45 229 Northern Arizona
2.6 -43 242 UCLA
2.4 -83 275 Washington
2.4 57 303 Michigan
3.0 41 305 Florida State
3.4 -24 336 Providence
3.0 -37 346 New Mexico
3.0 -18 387 BYU
2.6 -65 406 Indiana
3.4 -16 411 Michigan State
2.4 -44 428 Arkansas
2.6 -29 432 Oklahoma
3.0 21 462 Guelph
3.4 -43 470 North Carolina
2.4 -19 498 Iowa State
2.8 -26 500 Minnesota
2.2 12 547 Eastern Kentucky
1.6 -10 548 Boise State
2.8 49 607 Princeton
2.6 61 639 Dartmouth
2.2 -11 643 Arizona State
3.2 -69 683 Harvard
3.0 38 689 Columbia
3.6 -14 695 Illinois
3.2 -39 706 Lamar
3.0 29 745 Notre Dame
3.4 -6 777 Weber State
2.4 -26 790 Arizona
3.2 25 984 Texas A&M
1.6 21 1027 Georgia
1.8 56 1056 William and Mary
2.0 4 1125 Florida
Women's race video:
WTFartlek wrote:
FLOTRACK COVERAGE -
Not only a technically poor production but consistently poor color commentary. Trackmeets.com was doing this more than 15 years ago.
At 6k -
"...there must be a chip error (with Syracuse in front)..."
This. I can't believe that after two years of forcing people to pay for live coverage, Flotrack's production hasn't changed one bit. What a joke.
The Course wrote:
The last K at Wisconsin is about 100 meters short. The sixth K (on the Men's 8K course) is maybe 25 meters short. The course is about 7875. That is my opinion.
I'm not sure about the Women's course. I think the last K is well short there as well.
None of this matters as long as the course is consistent in length year to year, which it is.
This was discussed last year. When the Flotrack speed ratings came out, there was only one second difference between the Pre-Nats men's course and the Wisco men's course.
If someone wants to wheel the men's course in some verifiable fashion and report, I'll pay attention. Until then, while everyone can have an opinion, there is no objective basis to assert that the Wisco men's course is short.
And yes, Korolev could close that fast off a slow pace if the last 2k is flat or slightly downhill.
Yes, both courses are a bit short (probably more the women's course than the men's). I have heard 70m enough to think it is likely and having caught a couple of times at 6/7 and then 7/8, it is probably all in 7/8 (note 6/7 would have been very fast today because it was net down hill and down wind and the race was really winding up at that point with a lot of place differentials occurring according the posts a bit above).
Men's race video:
No, everyone is wrong. They have fixed the course length this year by moving the finish line, and bumping out the final turn (which is run 2x during the race, right before 4k, and right before the finish). It has added ~60m to the course. Gone are the days of 23:00 on this course.
Haney ran 23.54 to get 2nd unattached earlier this year only a half second behind John Gregorek He is going to be a beast for Oregon this year just a guess. GO DUCKS
Watch the video at the 8:45 mark. That is supposed to be the 7k mark. They are not running 4:16 pace. It looks more like 4:50 pace at that point to me.
So anyone saying the last 2k is accurate is way off. It must be at least 15-20 seconds short.
Congrats to Syracuse and Korolev for a great run today! That being said I hope that no one is misled by today's race.
While it was a little windy that was one of the more perfectly manicured cross country courses without many steep inclines that you will ever see.
The times today were SLOW!!!! No one took the pace. No one with any serious credentials forced the issue. While Syracuse ran great with an amazing 15 sec spread for 1-5, keep in mind that this was a very, very weak race today.
I don't want to try to take away from The Orange's performance today, but all this race did was show how weak all these teams were. If I could ask one person about their feelings on how the Wisconsin Adidas Invite reveals anything about what will happen at NCAA's......it would be 3rd place finisher Aaron Nelson from Washington.
Aaron Nelson is the perfect sort of PAC 12 barometer for what we can take away from today's race. Every member of Colorado's top 7 has either beaten or run right with Aaron Nelson before. While Syracuse had a great race today Colorado would have crushed them. Colorado would have placed their entire top 7 in the top 15 today and scored around 30 points in this meet. The only real revelation today was how weak Stanford and especially NAU's 4-7 are.
Comparing the Rocky Mountain Shootout times to this course today is definitely apples to oranges but just indulge for a moment. Colorado's 1-7 had a spread of 29 seconds. Take first place Blake Theroux's time of 24:23 and adjust for terrible terrain, steep hills and Oh..... 6,000ft of elevation and a time of 23:30 at the least would fairly adjust to this course. Then factor in a spread of 23:30-23:59 and you get the picture.
Can't wait to see tomorrow's Pre-Nats. Colorado will dominate and run away with Nationals again in November.
Chump2 wrote:
One top athlete running poorly each of those years (thus eliminating them from podium potential) isn't exactly foreseeable. If you would like me to break that down, I'd gladly do so.
The aszhole answer is that by the 3rd or 4th year in a row, it is forseeable.
But thats not my agenda.
We agree, but you're missing my point. 4 years of individuals' failiures (all in the same way) amounts to a team or mangement faliure. My goal is not to say that SU is overrated or whatever. They can be a great team. My point is that in order to get to the top they need to fix the syatematic bonking. My point is that, this result needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt with regards to predicting nationals, because of the team's history of an individual bonk.
I find it amazing how many people think 5 straight top 15 finishes at NCAAs is a failure. Look it up and see how many teams have that streak. The coaches that I know are really impressed with the Syracuse program because they know how hard it is to build a sustainable program and in the patient, home grown manner that they have done it. It appeared Syracuse was close last year finishing 10th but maybe the Wisconsin meet demonstrates they are ready for the single digits consistently.
If Syracuse's fault is that they aren't Colorado, Wisconsin or Northern Arizona and that only determines success, like most things on this board, is distorted.
It was windy, numbnuts. Of course no one wanted to take the lead.
Hi 26mi235, Do you have any idea what is happening with Addison DeHavee and Kai Wilmot? Redshirt?
Justyn Knight has huge potential - he was a real steal for coach Fox. With his wheels he seems to have at least the ability (or maybe more) of Mo Ahmed, as there is no way that Mo could have run 1.52 for 800m at that age. Given that he is really only 3 years into serious training - didn't start until his Junior HS year (was a basketball guy until then) - he has such a huge upside. I see sub-13.45 for 5k in the spring. While he is no Cheserek, he will throw down some pretty good times within the next year.
they call me flopro wrote:
With Haney running Oregon could have 3 in before Colorado first with Cheserek and Jenkins and Haney. Man I can't wait for the race tomorrow between the 2 best Men's teams in the Country OREGON AND COLORADO. GO DUCKS
so... about that...
Wisco Fan wrote:
Hi 26mi235, Do you have any idea what is happening with Addison DeHavee and Kai Wilmot? Redshirt?
Can you contact me over on the Track and Field News site with the same handle? You might have to register to do so, but you are a pretty knowledgeable guy(?) and would be a good addition there as the threads on college track and especially XC could use some more posters.
Dehaven and Wilmot are both huge talents but both were injured last spring. I am guessing Mick is easing them into the program. You will see those guys do great things for wisconsin but not this year. It was no surprise to see Hardy and McDonald as #3 and #4 this week. Those two were clearly ready for D1 this year. Expect both to be in or near top 10 in the big ten meet.