What Kind of Times Indicate Sub 3 is a Realistic Marathon Goal?

I'd say you're right on the edge. According to McMillan's calculator, which is always a good place to start, your half time is right on, 3:00:15. Your 10k and ten miler times translate to slightly slower - in the 3:03-3:05 range. On the right day...good weather, favorable course, good taper, no stomach issues, etc...I think you break 3:00. But you need to have things go right, this is certainly not a slam dunk. That's what makes this sport fun, you gotta put in the work and then go chase down your goals!

The training you've done, if your MP and LT workouts have gone well that is a big key.

FWIW, when I first broke 3:00 my HM time was pretty similar to yours, 1:26 low, but my 10k and 10 miler pr's were faster (~37:15 and 60:50). I went 2:58:03 off that. Your weekly mileage is higher than mine was, and your long runs are longer than mine were (I was closer to 50-55/week and long runs in the 15-16 range, no MP workouts but lots of LT). I had 3 marathons under my belt before I broke 3, all in the 3:01-3:12 range. That's primarily what I base my "you can do it!" assessment on - I think you're better prepared than I was.

You got it no problem. It's a cake piece.

Those are just about the times that I ran while attemping to break 3 hours. The best I got was 3:03 in New York, but I ran into toenail problems at 18 miles and had to slow down plus got jammed up at the start and lost 2 minutes there. On a flat course, with no problems, I feel 95% sure I would have gone sub 3. Pick a fast course, hope for good weather and no nagging problems during the race, and you should have it in the bag.

I ran a very hilly 1/2 in 1:26 and broke 3 by a smidge that year. That was my 3rd sub 3 attempt. The previous two were 3:03 and 3:02. The next year I ran a flat 1/2 in 1:21 and ran 2:55.

You should definitely take a shot at it given your PR. You are in the neighborhood. However, it may take a couple of tries. It really depends on what your overall trajectory is like. For me, I was in the middle of a bit of a plateau when I was trying to break 3. I finally got on a good trajectory of improvement and started shedding lots of time after I ran 2:59. I think that may be because I was actually in better shape than 2:59, but was getting tied up with the "barrier" and not running as well as I could.

Lesson to be learned: just keep at it if you do not hit it this time. It can take a couple of tries and you may need to be in shape to run a good bit faster to get it done.

Have you improved 12 seconds a mile since you set your PR? That is quite a lot to gain unless your PR was set on a tough day or course. But at the very least you are one marathon wiser and should be able to plan your race better. Good luck and hope you have a cool day on a flat course.

For the record i ran mid 34 for 10K, low 76 for the half and still only managed 3.01 (twice) in 3 attempts before deciding it just wasn't the event for me - so maybe see it as a tougher target than it really is.

i'm a bit of an outlier...did several sub-3:00's in my 40's with a half marathon best well over 1:26.

as someone else said above, appears you're right on the edge.

is your endurance improved? how have the long runs gone? how did you feel at the end and maybe most importantly, how did you feel the days after?

do any fast-finish long runs?

what pace did you run for MP? IMO 6:45 should feel sustainable or sub-3:00 is going to be very hard.

2x40 minutes with 5 minute recovery at 6:40 pace. If you can do that workout, you're in with a shout.

I set my PR yesterday. In it, I ran my ten k and ten mile PR.

The course is Philly. I've run it before and thought it was pretty flat, but I have a bad memory with things like this. :)

Since my last marathon, I've gone from a peak of 55 to 70.

My last marathon I peaked at 9 miles at MP and two 18 milers.

This time it will be a 75 mile peak, with 5 20s (I've done two so far, with the last one at 7:35 overall pace, with the last 10 at 7:20 pace).

All my LT work has been like 2 x 3 miles or 3 x 2 miles at about 6:30 pace and it was comfortable hard. I am always able to recover quickly enough to run about 9 the next day, and 8 - 10 miles at MP on the track, before the Sunday long run.

We'll see I guess!

The last MP workout I did was 7 miles at 6:42 and it wasn't bad at all.

Heck even in the last cycle before the 3:05 I did 9 at 6:45 no problem.

I ran 2:54:17 in Boston off of 40 MPW. I ran 17:10 5K three weeks before and I was in about 1:20:00 half shape.

Can you run sub 3 with a 1:25 half PR? Sure. Is it a lock? Far from it.

My suggestion: don't waste your time trying for sub 3 until you've nailed a 1:22/1:23. Then it should be easy and achievable in "one shot".

fall marathon wrote:

one at 7:35 overall pace, with the last 10 at 7:20 pace).

All my LT work has been like 2 x 3 miles or 3 x 2 miles at about 6:30 pace and it was comfortable hard. I am always able to recover quickly enough to run about 9 the next day, and 8 - 10 miles at MP on the track, before the Sunday long run.

We'll see I guess!

what pace have you used for MP?

I always try to keep 6:50 as the reference point. The last time I hit around 6:44 I believe, which was a little faster than planned for 7.

Heck, I'd even be happy with getting a first BQ (sub 3:05, but really sub 3:03 to lock in actually being able to run).

fall marathon wrote:

Hi,

Well, the subject says it all.

I've run recently:

40:10 10K (in the middle of my half PR)

65:29 ten miler

1:25:39 (5:50 last mile)

Peaking at 70-75 and an MP and LT workout a week besides the about 5 20 milers.

PR is currently 3:05:45 after four attempts. My half was 1:26:55 before that one.

Thanks!

I would say it is certainly possible. When I ran 2:57, all of my times were slower than yours and my max mileage was 10 miles less. I think what helped me is I paced a buddy through the half who was shooting for 3:05 and I negative split a marathon for the first time.

I think you can do it! I ran my second marathon this past summer sub-3 hours and that was with my PR in the half previously being 87 (which you've run faster than). I wish you the best! :)

fall marathon wrote:

I always try to keep 6:50 as the reference point. The last time I hit around 6:44 I believe, which was a little faster than planned for 7.

Heck, I'd even be happy with getting a first BQ (sub 3:05, but really sub 3:03 to lock in actually being able to run).

if 6:44 felt sustainable in the middle of training, that's a good sign. with a proper taper, you should be able to hold that on race day.

and on race day, be ready to stay under 6:50... with the inevitable extra distance (impossible to run the perfect tangents in a race like Philly) and slowing a bit for fuel and fluids, you will need to be running faster than 6:50's

good luck!

You're close. Someone posted in another thread that you need to be in 5 min better shape than what your goal may be. So if all the running calculators have you running 2:55:00, you should be spot on.

Good luck, dont go out too fast, remember you can always run faster if you're feeling good.

I ran a 1:24 low half before my goal marathon where I was going finally break 3. The day was hot, sunny and humid from the start so I had little shot. Ended up struggling mightily to a 3:03, so with good weather you're right there. Never ran as fast again, and have transitioned into other sports now so never will. Good luck.

Thanks everyone!

I think it'll be close. I'll go out no faster then 6:50 pace maybe... and then make a move at 20.

The last marathon I was pretty happy with only positive splitting by about 75 seconds, so I'd hope to do the same.