Do I have any shot at sub-2:32:00?

If you "Kip" the course! ;). Just kidding, couldn't resist.

I have no idea, but you're training sounds rock solid. Some of the experts probably can help dissect a good goal time from that.

Yeah, I think you're close to 2:32. The half time definitely indicates that and the 22 miler with pick ups puts you in that ball park.

bump

What's your prior PR? Have you got some marathon demons that always seem to show up on the wrong day? Based on your post you should be able to do it. But my experience is there are some people that come marathon day just seem to fall apart. If that's not you, you should be sub 2:35 and maybe 2:32 easy.

Your race times say you're in around 2:32 shape.

The workouts are nice to know but I find that relative race times are a better indicator.

Prior experience at the marathon distance needs to be explained before anyone with a clue can comment.

2:32 sounds realistic to me.

I think 2:30 is realistic. Maybe even a bit under.

I base that off #3 and #4.

Your training looks on-par with what I was doing in the lead up to my spring marathon. I ran a 1:12 HM tune-up on a flat course 6 weeks before the race. I followed that up with a 2:33 on a hilly course. I was shooting for 2:30, which in retrospect was unrealistic. On a flat course like Chicago you might be able to shoot for 2:30-2:32 as long as you're in a front corral.

I would've felt more confident if you had some 24+ runs in there, but if #1 is comfortable for you as you say, then I'm sure you'll be fine.

The lack of a marathon PR is telling. If this is your first marathon or you're struggled in the past, stick to a 2:40 goal through 20 miles. Clearly you won't make up the difference in the last 6 miles, but you're not likely to bonk either. Bonking SUX! Been there, done that. It can be a hard thing to get over mentally, especially if you start getting injured or bonk again next marathon. Sub 2:40 is pretty awesome, especially if it's your first. And finishing your first marathon strong helps build confidence for the next one. The marathon is a fickle bwitch; don't piss it off your first try.

bored troller wrote:

The lack of a marathon PR is telling. If this is your first marathon or you're struggled in the past, stick to a 2:40 goal through 20 miles. Clearly you won't make up the difference in the last 6 miles, but you're not likely to bonk either. Bonking SUX! Been there, done that. It can be a hard thing to get over mentally, especially if you start getting injured or bonk again next marathon. Sub 2:40 is pretty awesome, especially if it's your first. And finishing your first marathon strong helps build confidence for the next one. The marathon is a fickle bwitch; don't piss it off your first try.

I don't like to list the PR because I always feel the need to put an asterisk next to it, explain myself, and blah blah blah. Since you asked…

Long story short - I recently became re-addicted to running when my oldest daughter hit middle school. This was when I was 37. I dropped my marathon PR from 3:00 - 2:43 over the course of 4 races and 1.5 years. The 2:43 was in Boston '13. At that time, I was only in 1:16 - 1:18 half shape.

BlasterMaster wrote:

At that time, I was only in 1:16 - 1:18 half shape.

How do you know? If you didn't race a half before last year's Boston, you don't. I'd bet a lot of money you were faster than that. Middle aged guys don't go from 1:18 to 1:12 in just over a year.

Anyway, knowing your marathon history I'd advise going out at 2:34-:36 pace, if conditions are favorable. Going for an 11 minute PR is far too aggressive.

I raced 3 halves in the winter leading up to Boston, all on the same course. The race series is in my hometown. I was 1:17:2X in the January race, 1:15:HI in the February race (the course was short, some dumb volunteer set one of the turn arounds up too early), 1:19 at "marathon effort" in the March race. It was cold (teens) and snowy for the first 2.

Have you lost a significant amount of weight?

greenstone wrote:

Have you lost a significant amount of weight?

Depends on what you'd call significant. I am 5'8" and was at 136-8 for Boston. I am now 132.

BlasterMaster wrote:

greenstone wrote:

Have you lost a significant amount of weight?

Depends on what you'd call significant. I am 5'8" and was at 136-8 for Boston. I am now 132.

In our demented world I'd consider that significant.

I still don't change my answer, 2:34-6 would be a huge PR and a great performance. If those fitness gains are real, they're not going away. There's always the next marathon. Hell, even if you feel like you left a lot of the course find another in 5-8 weeks. Easy to do this time of year.

I think there's a happy medium...go out at 11630, but do NOT run a single mile faster than 545, try to stay on 550s as close as you can...better to run 555 than 550.

If you go out at 11630 and feel great, you can still run 231-32, but it isn't so fast that you will crash big time. 114 or 115 might be ok, but puts you at a bigger risk of bonking.

As mentioned previously, bonking sucks.

Yes, 2:32.