Predict marathon time based on following info.

I am at the momement able to do all the workouts (probably a little faster), run 70-85 miles per week and have still 6 weeks to my goal marathon and I am sure that I am not (and won't be) in 2:50 shape. I guess anything between 2:55 and 2:58 is more realistic for you.

Somewhere in the 2:45 to 3:30 range.

3:04 - Good workouts but you don't have the miles. Is this your first marathon? How old are you?

Forgot to mention that the previous two weeks before this training cycle didn't go too well as I was out for 8 straight days with an injury and then took a week of easy running. Then I proceeded with the above three sessions within two weeks, along with a 20-miler. I get into fitness really fast and typically do well off 50-55 range with these types of workouts and progression-style longer runs.

I am in my mid-30s and have run more than 20 marathons. I posted this question to see what kind of responses I would get as I prep for Chicago. I completed similar sessions, though faster (ex. the 3 x 3 miles workout @ 6:10-pace) and ran 2:52 three years ago. My last marathon was last year, a 2:59 off of terrible preparation as I missed four straight weeks two months before the marathon due to a knee injury. Before that injury, though, I was in the best "marathon" shape of my life and most likely could have run sub-2:50 at that point.

I'm thinking about going out at 6:30 miles (roughly 2:50:30 pace) and see what happens in the second half or slow the pace to 6:40s.

I ran almost the exact same workouts when I ran 248. I was very fit before I started this block though. I ran a low 120 half marathon just prior. I just looked them up:

Session 1: 2*3 at 630 pace with 3 min jogs

Session 2: 3* 3 mile at 626 pace with 3 min jogs

Session 3: 5 @ 622; 3@610; 1@610; 1@600 with 3 min jogs

You might be a little light on the long runs though. I had 5 20 milers and 2 18 milers in my build up. I averaged closer to 710 to 700 on the later ones. The early miles were 720ish and then worked my way down. Three weeks before the race I did 10 easy and 10 at 630 pace.

I would target 252 pace and take it from there.

At the moment it is hard to say what shape you are. Your last workout was very well. I don't know how much time you have left for your marathon but you could do maybe 4-2-4 next time? If you have enough time left you could run a little longer long run?

But it's better to change not too much now.

Do you have a recent half time? Other distances? If you want to run 2:50 you have to get it with a negative split I think.

Race day is three weeks from this Sunday. My plan is a 20-miler this weekend (the first 10 miles @ 7:30s and second 10 miles @ 6:45), 4-3-2-1 workout next week (targeting 4 miles @ 6:25-pace, 3 miles @ 6:15-pace, 2 miles @ 6:05-pace, 1 mile @ 5:55), early the following week 18 miles total including 12 miles tempo @ 6:30-pace, and then sometime of dress rehearsal workout of around 5 miles 5-6 days before the race.

As of now, I'm going to aim for 6:30-6:30 miles in the early stages of the race, try to come through the half at the 1:25:30-1:26:00 range and then see what happens.

In my view, you'd be better off doing at least the second half of your 20 miler at marathon pace. Last time I was healthy for a marathon, I extended that marathon pace mileage at the backend of the long run until I was at the last 13M of 21-22 at 6:02 in the heat but no hills, and I averaged 6:05 with hills in the marathon three weeks later. So, whatever pace you can do in the last 13 of your 20 should probably be a good indicator of your actual marathon pace. As it is, you are not practicing marathon pace for a long enough stretch. Even if you just went out and ran 12M at marathon pace with a short warmup, that would be more indicative.