I think I'm in 3:15 marathon shape, prove or disprove

That 2x6 mile interval seems quick for your 5k time. But I know people with similar 5k times that have run sub 3:15 on less mileage.

You got this! 3:15 should be doable. Dial it in and run it.

did 3:20s on less mileage, old, and clydesdale.

Please post back.

You are right there.

I ran a 19:10 last weekend, have a PR of 1:26 in the half (not during marathon training) and ran 3:16:high last November.

On less mileage (40-45 mpw).

Ran up to 16 mi long runs @ 7:30 (only twice).

6 x 1 mile at 6:15 there is no way in hell I would have done or be able to do. Hell 6 x 800 at 6:15 pace would have hurt.

Good luck on the marathon. Go out in 1:35 at the fastest. Who knows you may not be too far from 3:10, or split 1:35/1:40.

Hmm, I'm hoping to run 3:15-3:20 in a couple weeks here, and I'm kinda behind where you are.

Only 35 mpw over the past 18 weeks, but closer to 50 mpw for the past 5 weeks, with a peak of 53.

1:33 recent half marathon, hilly course with a small, nagging injury.

19:15 5k that didn't feel like peak effort.

Recent 20 miler averaging 7:58 with a negative split and the 20th mile at 7:08

Slo guy, you are in 3:20 shape.

7:15-7:20 pace.

With a 1:29 half plus the mileage and workouts you're doing, I would expect you to run about 3:10, maybe even a bit faster. I ran 3:15 last year with slightly less mileage, a weekly long run of 2 to 2 1/2 hours (one 3 hour run) and mile repeats once a week around 6:35-40. As far as racing goes, I ran a 1:33 half marathon 8 weeks out and a 40:33 10k the week before the marathon.

If you pace yourself well, 3:15 should be a breeze.

runner who advices wrote:

Slo guy, you are in 3:20 shape.

7:15-7:20 pace.

3:15 is 7:27 pace

3:20 is 7:38 pace

Slow fat & old, I think you're in a great position to run a 3:15 Marathon or better. I recently ran a 3:15:10 Marathon on less mileage and no workouts (other than pushing myself a bit on every run). I had 2 20 milers, one @ 8 min pace, and the other at 7:40, and 5 med long (12-14) and averaged 38 mpw (total mileage averaging around 7:30) because of a bad June. I definitely struggled the last 3 miles, but came close to my 3:15 BQ goal. You look solid to me!!

SFO, you're doing everything right. Keep it up and go for it on race day.

Appreciate all the responses. Still going to run 3:15 pace for the first 14-16 and then see how I feel. Have no desire to stumble home like last year. I learned the hard way that marathon pace is tough to predict!

maybe, maybe not.

I was training about as much as you but my half time was about 7-8 mins faster. My 5k was about a min faster. Were you "racing" that half?

I think your last marathon time, based off your wpm indicates that you should be around 3:15. weather/nutrition/health permitting

Run the first mile or two in 8:00 then get into the 7:27s.

You proved last year that you can't bank time.

From your profile it looks like you can do it and have enough speed to easily make up the extra 66 seconds or even 66 seconds and a bathroom stop at the end.

How much rest for the 1-mile repeats?

I did 2x3200m at 7:14 pace but it felt more like a threshold workout and I only had 30s rest between the first and second set. However after the workout was done I wasn't out of breath at all...just was trying to keep it all very consistent and smooth.

If I did 6x1600 at 6:50 w/60s standing rest would that be enough?

Old thread, but I would have liked to see what OP actually did. There were a few good replies, but Dan Moriarity had possibly the strongest IMO. Looked to me as though 3:10 would've been very doable for OP with 3:15 very likely to be a breeze. Multiple online calculators bear this out, and I've seen similar results for myself and some other runners I've talked to (a little hazy on remembering info from them though). The argument against that might be the way 45 mpw for the previous marathon translated to lower fitness than I would have expected and maybe points to OP being better suited for shorter races. Don't know weather or course, or a bunch of other possible variables for that, though. My guess is that OP was probably in shape to run 3:22-3:24 for that previous one and got crushed by going out in 1:38; hence that very rough second half. But even if he (? assuming he) was still adjusting to the marathon or was not suited to it, I'd be willing to bet that he wound up running at least a little bit faster than 3:15 if he followed his stated race plan well and weather was fine.

FWIW, for a comparison to the info provided, I was able to go under 3:10 with similar mileage and relatively similar fitness. Those races were well into my 40s. Just a little bit slower for 5K and don't think I would've been able to do that 6 x mile workout during those builds, and certainly not without racing the workout. But I could do decent workouts basically in line with 3:05-3:10 expectation, and a solid long run workout would be 10 easy + 10 averaging 7:00-7:10 (depending on how far below 3:10 I was at that time) on elevation change similar to that of the race.

As for 6x1600, jecht, I'm not sure how Dan Moriarity did them, and I'm not sure about what you mean by "be enough." Is that just "enough" rest for that kind of workout now based on your threshold reps? Or do you mean "enough" to be an indicator of 3:15 shape? If the former, I'd check your overall volume and workout progression prior to going into 6 x 1600, but maybe you already know that.

Just for the kind of workout now based on my threshold reps. Still trying to figure out my speeds/paces I need. I have a 1/2 in August. I am trying to be smart about my training. Overall volume is 38-45 mpw consistently and 540 miles on the year. TY again!

I would stick to threads that aren't 2+ years old when asking for help Jecht

They are still useful.