US Men's Marathon Development?

So Cal Pride wrote:

1 Meb Keflezighi 36 2:09:08

2 Ryan Hall 29 2:09:30

3 Abdi Abdirahman 33 2:09:47

4 Dathan Ritzenhein 29 2:09:55

5 Brett Gotcher 27 2:11:06

6 Andrew Carlson 29 2:11:24

7 Fernando Cabada 29 2:11:53

8 Nick Arciniaga 28 2:11:56

9 James Carney 33 2:12:23

10 Jimmy Grabow 27 2:12:29

Only Meb who is getting a little long in the tooth and Dathan who has a tough time staying healthy have run significantly faster. 80% have no improvement.

Only Meb, Cabada and Arciniaga are fit enough to run a Fall Marathon. 70% failure rate.

Over 50% have not run within 3 minutes since.

Completely normal rates. Look at the top Kenyans from 2.5 years ago and you will see about the same thing. When you run really fast, it is very hard to stay there.

So Cal Pride wrote:

I was excited in January 2014 about the future of the Marathon for Americans. but it has been a rough few years since.

1 Meb Keflezighi 36 2:09:08

2 Ryan Hall 29 2:09:30

3 Abdi Abdirahman 33 2:09:47

4 Dathan Ritzenhein 29 2:09:55

5 Brett Gotcher 27 2:11:06

6 Andrew Carlson 29 2:11:24

7 Fernando Cabada 29 2:11:53

8 Nick Arciniaga 28 2:11:56

9 James Carney 33 2:12:23

10 Jimmy Grabow 27 2:12:29

Only Meb who is getting a little long in the tooth and Dathan who has a tough time staying healthy have run significantly faster. 80% have no improvement.

Only Meb, Cabada and Arciniaga are fit enough to run a Fall Marathon. 70% failure rate.

Over 50% have not run within 3 minutes since.

Hall is done. Poorly managed

Abdi is way past done.

Gotcher is a 2:15 guy now.

Carlson retired.

Carney retired.

Grabow is done.

That leaves

Meb who is too old

Ritz who is too injury prone.

Cabada who is too drunk.

Arciniaga who is no better than 2:11.

Anyone who can break 2:11 in 2016 will be an Olympian.

Maybe Eggleston or Vail or Teg or Curtis. Nobody currently jumps out.

Trials are only 17 months away.

Not one of them will make the Rio team.

FRESH START wrote:

Not one of them will make the Rio team.

Someone will make the team. One foot in front of the other and they will do it.

Farkengruven wrote:

Someone will make the team. One foot in front of the other and they will do it.

Right you are. Just not anyone that was a top 10 finisher in 2012.

Interesting Observation that is almost embarrassing when you look at a world listing of times.

We have no marathon development to speak of or anything in the pipeline.

You would have hoped with Meb's Boston win something might have surfaced , nothing really , shoe company teams still doing the same old thing.

The world gets faster , we stay the same.

Americans know that a sub 2:11 always puts you in the hunt. No need to ever strive to be competitive amongst the World. The US getting excited about the Marathon Trials is like a D3 National Meet. Someone has to win.

Sad state of affairs wrote:

You would have hoped with Meb's Boston win something might have surfaced , nothing really , shoe company teams still doing the same old thing.

Like what????

Vail, Arciniaga, Ritz.

Rio.

Anyone think Puskedra could be a wild card for the team? Debuting at NYC this year.

Meb, Vail, and Eggleston.

pending injury or sickness, Vail is a lock.

After that its a toss up. Maybe Solinsky gets his stuff together? Maybe Cabada hits his goal of sub 2:10 at Berlin? Maybe Hall returns to the Hall of old? Maybe Matt Llano tears it up in his debut in Chicago? there's no way to tell. It's gonna be fun to see what happens this fall marathon season.

Maybe I will go top 3 and pull a Bruce Denton.

Here is an easy way to understand the US Marathoner. He is in it for more than the money. It is pride, accomplishment, etc that drive him. Even winning a Marathon Major (a dicey prospect at best for anyone) is not going to set up an American for life. A Kenyan can get 3rd in a Major and retire in relative luxury.

So, the Kenyan/Other 3rd world runner is much more willing to:

A. Kill himself in training because he only needs one good one.

B. Cheat (PEDs) because even if he is caught, he'll already have bought a plot of land and a bunch of cows, so good luck getting that back. His reputation is soil, but that's all he was after anyway.

The American needs longevity to make a career so (A) and (B) are out. His future earnings are too important to him.

Just look at Marathon time progression of the past 15 years and it is clear that something unnatural is going on. Before that, Marathon times world wide were very steady for 20 years. The money was there all the time. The difference is now there are better pharmaceuticals.

Yes. Luke Puskedra is the real deal. He's flying way under the radar.