what's the 5k potential for a "normal" person?

I say sub 2:45 or Sub 2:40 is possibly for someone with a little bit above average talent and high mileage. Keep your plan simply with easy runs, doubles, long run, and at least one tempo and you could run some pretty good times with consistency and hard work. Good luck and keep your eye on the prize!

Aiming to run 100+ mile weeks is okay -- with a proper buildip; however, it's inadvisable to try to hit that mileage from scratch within a year. Similarly, a sub-2:50 marathon on a single year of training is pretty unlikely unless you're really talented. Two to three years seems like a more reasonable timeframe for that goal.

Why not aim for a Boston-qualifying time first?

Running sub 2:50 is ambitious. But OP seems like you are asking two questions, 5K potential and what you can do for a marathon.

Either way take it a step at a time. You haven't indicated your current mileage. Low 19 off of just a month of training shows some pretty good potential. Take a couple months to build to 50 miles a week. Do some races 5K-10 mile, maybe cap off a fall season with a half marathon. Take a short break, assess where you are, and build up to 50-60 mpw. Plan to build to 60s and 70s for eight to 10 weeks leading to your first marathon.

To run 2:50 you probably need to be at least mid-low 17 min 5K shape, if not a ways under that (i.e., 16:40s).

Thanks for the advice everyone! I've been running 50-60 miles per week for the last month plus backpacking 30-40 miles per week. the 19:17 5k was two pretty hard workouts in a 3 day period. I've done 100 mile weeks in the past while training for ultras but that was mostly just plodding along at 9-12 min pace, with one track day and one tempo per week. I know I'm building up too fast and risking injury, but I've been able to do it in the past without injury so I'm going to do it again until I start feeling a twinge. I'm just that stupid.

Good luck

I have no talent, and have run under 17 for 5k and 1:22 for half marathon on a slow course without competition.

You're more talented than me, so I'd say 1530 potential for 5k if you train exclusively for it. 240 potential for marathon (you seem more talented at 5k than marathon). If you train high mileage for marathon, after a couple years I could see you running 1630s 5k and 240s marathon.

To give the simple response:

"run twice a day every, except Sunday(long run), and do 2 hard workouts a week. For about 120-140 miles a week." - frank shorter

Only problem, is taking a couple years to safely build up to that volume.

agc5k wrote:

I have no talent, and have run under 17 for 5k and 1:22 for half marathon on a slow course without competition.

You're more talented than me, so I'd say 1530 potential for 5k if you train exclusively for it. 240 potential for marathon (you seem more talented at 5k than marathon). If you train high mileage for marathon, after a couple years I could see you running 1630s 5k and 240s marathon.

To give the simple response:

"run twice a day every, except Sunday(long run), and do 2 hard workouts a week. For about 120-140 miles a week." - frank shorter

Only problem, is taking a couple years to safely build up to that volume.

Nah, son. 15:30 future potential no way. For one, he's already 28. And 19:17 or whatever for a 5k after a month of training and past running history is really not that good. I ran faster than that as a 15 year old that just came out for cross country and before a big growth spurt.

My friend that had the same HS prs as me continued training after HS relatively intensely at 60-100mpw with workouts and is down to about a 15:10 5k. The OP could probably get down to 16:30 or so. Maybe 16:00 if he plays his cards right or responds really well to training.

90% of all male runners between the ages of 19-29 in America, never break 17 min.

Me in real life wrote:

90% of all male runners between the ages of 19-29 in America, never break 17 min.

99% of all male runners between ages 19-29 in America never break 17

I doubt that even in Kenya more than 5% of male runners in that age group can run sub 17

I would estimate 5k potential for "normal" 19-29 y.o. male runner in US to be 21 mins

Slowpuke wrote:

Me in real life wrote:

90% of all male runners between the ages of 19-29 in America, never break 17 min.

99% of all male runners between ages 19-29 in America never break 17

I doubt that even in Kenya more than 5% of male runners in that age group can run sub 17

I would estimate 5k potential for "normal" 19-29 y.o. male runner in US to be 21 mins

Why

Slowpuke wrote:

Me in real life wrote:

90% of all male runners between the ages of 19-29 in America, never break 17 min.

99% of all male runners between ages 19-29 in America never break 17

I doubt that even in Kenya more than 5% of male runners in that age group can run sub 17

I would estimate 5k potential for "normal" 19-29 y.o. male runner in US to be 21 mins

The issue isn't what average people run, it's what they could run, getting the most out of their ("limited" or "normal") potential. Low-mileage high school kids who are semi-serious seem to run like 18-19, continuing into prime years would probably get down to 17-18. Bumping up mileage (we ran about 20 mpw in HS--let's assume getting up to 80mpw and following a standard pattern), I'd say a normal person should definitely be able to break 17 within 5 years of specific training, most people could probably get around 16 flat.

(bump) From my experiences, the benchmarks I consider at minimum attainable by "the average person after at least a year of dedicated training" is as follows:

1600- 4:40

5000- 16:45

Half- 1:25

Full- 3:10

Would love to hear your opinions as well.

running bc why not wrote:

From my experiences, the benchmarks I consider at minimum attainable by "the average person after at least a year of dedicated training" is as follows:

1600- 4:40

5000- 16:45

Ugh, not this again. Average trained person won't get close to those times:

I think people are ignoring the fact that the results you'll see in low mileage high school kids with average potential or just average runner are likely already statistically above average. These people were probably good among people that knew outside of track already, which is why they tried running in the first place. Thus any of these times you see in these samples of people cannot be attributed to the whole population to represent average runners' potential. I would guess that an average person with statistically average health and fitness could at the least probably never break 5 mins or any other mid distance to long distance time equivalents.

I have very little talent. More than 20 freshman were better than me at my high school freshman year. Couldn't make the team until I trained hard. Did have natural stamina but no speed. Ran 14.09 in college for 5000m. You'll need to be pig headed and super disciplined. I raced my workouts with a chip on my shoulder but ran slower than most of the team on my recovery days.

again??? wrote:

running bc why not wrote:

From my experiences, the benchmarks I consider at minimum attainable by "the average person after at least a year of dedicated training" is as follows:

1600- 4:40

5000- 16:45

Ugh, not this again. Average trained person won't get close to those times:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=1819792http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4676786http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=7050897

There needs to be a clear distinction between average person, and average runner. Average person is the US is 5'9" 196lb man or 5'4" 166lb female. (And growing) so a year of dedicated running would be necessary just to develop a suitable runner's form. Average person doesn't posess that kind of work ethic, average athelete might. So times you predict will be for average athletic person who is dedicated, and possesses some talent for running. ( or else they would quit). Your sample size just shrunk by 90%. So the plain answer is the average person can run 1600 - slowly, 5k - only on a bet, and even slower.

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned that you need to do some speedwork to run to your potential over 5K.

Everything from miler workouts (10 @ 400 at mile race pace) to repeat miles (5 @ 1 mile a bit faster than 10K race pace).

If you want to race fast, you have to get used to running fast. If you don't do some super-bad interval workouts, you'll never know how fast you can run a 5K.

Off your current running, I'll say you can break 18. Do a couple months with two interval sessions per week, you'll break 17. If you ever break 17, then you can build up volume for further improvement.

To run a fast 5K, at your level, you do not need to run more than 60 miles per week. Sure, if you plan on doing marathons, build it up to 100 miles. But c'mon, have some common sense! Run fast to be fast.

Your potential is incredibly high if you have the mindset of being able to out the high work in. Its not enough to just run junk miles of 100mpw. You have to be prepared to push yourself hard in intervals. But after that I see no reason why you can't run a respectable club runner time (14:xx). If you want to maximise your 5k potential though you won't be trying to train for a marathon at the same time...

I believe that I am no more talented than average, but have ran for a low profile D1 school and my PRs were the followings:

5k: 14'48

10k: 30'32

HM: 68'47

My average mileage was consistent around 90/w since my junior year of college.

Hard work, perseverance and believe in what you do is the key.