Reed, I'm not sure if you even read my entire post before disagreeing with me. I said 6:15 for a HARD run pace. When did I say that for easy days? I said specifically "and 7:00 for normal/recovery runs."
Basically what I was saying was that 71/72 4x8 with 1:30 break workout wasn't necessarily a hard workout. Especially not for someone running sub 17. And for someone going 16:12, it would hardly be a workout at all.
For reference, my PR is 17:10 from last XC season. Insanely close to the number I predicted for him.
I've never run a 2 mile, but my 1 mile PR was 4:41, and I'd estimate my 2 mile time somewhere around the OP.
I'm not saying this to brag, I'm just saying it so you can see where I'm coming from.
-----------------------------
Assuming your a sub 17 runner, here are my thoughts / comments. Take them with a grain of salt. I'm not a coach, I'm just a fellow HS runner (going into senior year). It's also going into season, so your workouts will definitely change when meets begin.
1. Your long run is a bit too long. Assuming you're doing around a 1 mile warm up and 1 mile cool down that is. I think it may be more beneficial to speed up your pace a bit and drop your long run by 2ish miles.
2. Recovery / Normal run days seem too slow. None of the days in that week really need a recovery run, except maybe monday (assuming you did a distance run the previous sunday). None of the runs were too strenuous, and although the tempo run was fast, it was only 2 miles.
3. A longer speed run may help. You don't really have any distance speedwork, such as a long tempo run to help you keep your pace in a race. Something such as 5 miles at 6:05-6:15 pace.
I still hold that your time will be 17:00-17:10 for your first meet. You could easily end up peaking as a sub 16 runner by the end of the season if you work hard, but don't over work it in the next month and a half.
I'd love other comments in response to mine, and in response to the OP, as it helps me improve my knowledge and everyone who reads this.
Best of luck.