Galen Rupp's 5000m Ceiling

Neva Leave wrote:

What makes you think he actually left?

He never did, he's probably the one referencing himself as some type of genius predictor of Rupp's ceiling in this thread. He seems to have gone by many disposable handles before "Jesse was indeed a friend" and after.

Not Jesse's Friend wrote:

Why is Jesse even getting mentioned. He is supposed to have jogged away with his tail between his legs many years ago because of posts like this.

Jesse was indeed a friend

Galen Rupp Has NO CHANCE At Lagat's 2 Mile AR 2/9/2012 3:58AM

This is why Galen Rupp bothers me, although maybe Salazar talks him into this stuff. He has ZERO chance at running 8:10 and it is obvious to the intelligent. He will be fortunate to run 8:15 if everything falls into place. He has absolutely no chance at running faster than 8:15. I will NEVER post here again if Rupp runs faster than 8:15 this weekend.

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&thread=4442164&id=4442164#4442164#ixzz3brbpkqkH

Those were bold predictions. When a guy goes out on a limb like that, he stay there and not come back.

Galen Rupp Fanatic wrote:

I guess that Cliff Clavin is right about Galen Rupp's 5000m ceiling. He is now 28 years old and he has had many cracks at the 5000m, and he has indeed brushed up against a ceiling right around 13 minutes, just as Cliff said he would. He has broken 13 minutes one time. He does a good job at 10,000m though.

Cliff was brilliant in terms of ceilings.

Geneer wrote:

Galen Rupp Fanatic wrote:

I guess that Cliff Clavin is right about Galen Rupp's 5000m ceiling. He is now 28 years old and he has had many cracks at the 5000m, and he has indeed brushed up against a ceiling right around 13 minutes, just as Cliff said he would. He has broken 13 minutes one time. He does a good job at 10,000m though.

Cliff was brilliant in terms of ceilings.

Depends. Can't remember how he worded it. If he said Rupp would never run faster than 12:55 then I would agree he was spot on.

If he said Rupp couldn't run faster than 12:55, as in that was not possible for him under any conditions, then he would be wrong.

What I find most interesting about Rupp though is his 5000m career in general. The guy had all the tools to beat everyone, w/exception of Farah, looked at individually, but almost never (5000m USA 2012 trials being the exception) could put them together to win. The best I can speculate is that Rupp raced inefficiently and ended up spending too much of his anerobic work capacity such that when it came time for kicking he didn't have enough left to win/medal.

The thing is, Rupp was at his best on the track in 2012. He ran his 12:58 at Pre amid a training block without a taper. Many of the Africans he beat in that race went on to run 12:46-12:50. Had Rupp run in THAT perfect setup, well-rested, he probably was capable of 12:50.

As it stands, he never came close and only broke 13:00 once, but at least he did it. He has a stellar resume, regardless of what he "could've run."

Silver & Bronze,... wrote:

The thing is, Rupp was at his best on the track in 2012. He ran his 12:58 at Pre amid a training block without a taper. Many of the Africans he beat in that race went on to run 12:46-12:50. Had Rupp run in THAT perfect setup, well-rested, he probably was capable of 12:50.

As it stands, he never came close and only broke 13:00 once, but at least he did it. He has a stellar resume, regardless of what he "could've run."

Without a doubt he was capable of running 12:50 give or take in the right race. Unfortunately with running that's the challenge, a decent race might come around once a year and the "right" race only comes around a few times a decade...unless you're setting up a WR, but nobody is good enough for that (track distance) in the past couple decades.

That said, I still think Rupp underperformed at 5k, given the tools he had. If you look at all the components individually Rupp looks like he should have been a top 5 in the world, maybe even Farah Lite, at 5000m. Actual performance Rupp was mostly just filler, in the sense that he rarely was threatening to win or podium circuit 5000s. I I'd really love to know why. He rather reminds me of the Tom Danielson of 5000m running. One of the best on paper, never quite put it together.

I'd say Rupp has a respectable to very good 5k resume (international/US), and very good to GAAT/incredible (international/US) 10,000 resume.

Pretty excited to see what he can do with the marathon now. Would be pretty cool if he was even more substantially GOAT American at the marathon than he was GOAT American at the 10,000