Congrats to Iona's Kate Avery for her 32:33 pb - 4th place showing at Commonwealths, is she favorite for 2014 NCAA xc?

not kara goucher wrote:

Yes she was 23 seconds from bronze but that's still a good showing.

Now it's time to get ready for xc. She was third last year. Abbey D is gone. Is Avery the favorite? Who could beat her?

Emma Bates. Remember her? 2nd last year in xc and the NCAA 10k champ. Bates has a better pb as well - 32:20.

Bates is the favorite but Avery may benefit from being British and not even having started to train yet. The pressure to win isn't as great for her. Brits don't care as much and i think she has another year left as well.

Avery's got a good shot.

Avery was just named to the team last week:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/commonwealth-games/28402729

Does anyone know if she was training for this or not? pretty impressive.

Here is an article on the race:

http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/athletics/england/glasgow-2014-commonwealth-games/news/englands-avery-never-expected-pb-in-10000m_168081.html

She used to be coached by the great Bob Ashwood (RIP). A very talented young lady - I hope she goes on to many further successes.

My money is on Aisling Cuffe

Most impressive thing about this race was Florence Kiplagat almost winning in a pair of marathon shoes (Streak 5's I think).

The girls run 6k and there is a 15:11 5k girl in the field. Could Cuffe break the Foot Locker curse?

Should be a great battle between cuffe, bates, and avery. I also am not counting out Shelby Houlihan. Women's NCAA's is a completely different beast from men's because it's so much shorter, 1500m standouts are just as close to their comfort zone as 10,000m specialists

Moneyyy wrote:

The girls run 6k and there is a 15:11 5k girl in the field. Could Cuffe break the Foot Locker curse?

This ^^^

Are you kidding me? Aisling Cuffe all the way...

These girls are running 6k, their 5k times are going to be more of a factor, and you also have to think, although Aisling hasn't made her 10k debut yet, she's more of a 5k-10k type than 1500m-5k type anyways, Aisling with a 15:11 5k PR would crush 32:33, she could probably run AT LEAST 31:32 (Jordan Hasay has 31:41 w/ a 15:28 5k PR)... Milten at Stanford will have her nice and sharp for NCAA XC's, I can't see her not winning this...

Sarah Baxter wins!

Dewey_Runner wrote:

Most impressive thing about this race was Florence Kiplagat almost winning in a pair of marathon shoes (Streak 5's I think).

+1

Got to love Sarah Baxter chances she has what lost one Cross Country race ever??/

Avery, Bates, Cuffe, Houlihan, Santisteban (Cal) . . . all top-10 returnees.

Agreed with Baxter being up there.

But, in that case, have to consider . . . Cranny.

Cuffe & Cranny . . . one of best xc duos ever? . . . we'll know when they face Houlihan & Santisteban at Pac-12s . . . which Cal hosts this fall . . . then again at Stanford for the West Regionals . . .

NOP Skeptic wrote:

Aisling with a 15:11 5k PR would crush 32:33, she could probably run AT LEAST 31:32 (Jordan Hasay has 31:41 w/ a 15:28 5k PR)

IMHO, that isn't the best comparison. Hasay is much more of a strength-oriented runner than Cuffe, so she may excel in the 10k but probably never run 15:11 herself. And just for the record, Jordan ran 31:39 earlier this season.

Of the younger element..........Erin Finn.

All good choices...

I'll throw in Leah O'Connor as well. Good speed, hell of a track season, and a pretty solid team around her.

Well she lost to a high schooler last year so I doubt it.

Oh yes, Cranny and Cuffe is going to be a DANGEROUS combination, and I could see Cranny a lock for top 10 at least...

Also, to another above poster, I would say Hasay and Cuffe's strength are fairly similar, because in addition to Aisling being a 5k/10k type, she also doesn't have raw speed either, Hasay can run 4:07, Cuffe can only run 4:16.6 (split time), yet Aisling has better 5k time (15:11) by a reasonable margin, so I'd have to say, yes Aisling would beat Hasay in a 10k... Hasay has a tap of speed, while Aisling is strictly an aerobic monster...

Speaking of the Pac 12, don't forget Cal recruit Bethan Knights, who I saw beat Baxter in a 3200 on the track. Looking at the names others have listed, starting with Bates and Cuffe, with Finn as a still young contender, and Cranny and Baxter coming in, I can't wait for the season to start.

Slightly off topic, has there been a full listing of college recruits yet? The Milesplit site is incomplete. Thanks!

OP

Your sister ran a great race. However, xc typically shows different results due to the terrain, and there are some that had no interest in going to these games that might be a little faster than her.