Cycling aficionados, how doped is this year's Tour de France?

~75% dopers.

20-40% of past fully doped tours

the top guys froome contador nibali are all doped

there is less team wide doping as its too risky

the UCI has a big say in who gets busted and who passes drug tests

corruption is s big part of it in cycling

its not just about passing tests

I am having trouble finding power numbers for a number of the top riders through the mountains. Typically anyone producing over 400 watts as an average throughout the entire tour is cause for some suspicion. Guys like Lance in 2001(something like 438 avg watts) or Contador in 2009(forget exactly but in that high 430 range) are consider extreme outliers.

One thing I do find interesting is this article about Nibali where he calls for the ban of power meters in races. This could be taken two ways: 1) He wants riders to have to race and not be able to know exactly where they are in relation to their physical limits or 2) He is a doper and doesn't want everyone to know it based on his numbers.

There's a section at the end of Tyler Hamilton's book that compares average tour times from the Armstrong era to the 2011 race. I don't remember the specifics but it was pretty stunning. The overall pace was 1-2 MPH slower (despite aero and material advancements) and he used Alpe D'Huez as an example where the fastest riders were 3-4 minutes slower than Lance when he crushed Ullrich on it in 2001. From a running standpoint it would be like the top marathoners doing 2:04 and then 10 years later running 2:05 high/2:06 low.

Here you go, highest speed was 2005 at 41.5KPH and from 2010-12 averaged around 39.5KPH. Obviously course and weather can affect this but it is a good comparison point.

Rick Grimes wrote:

he used Alpe D'Huez as an example where the fastest riders were 3-4 minutes slower than Lance when he crushed Ullrich on it in 2001.

I know they like to use Alpe D'Huez but the reality is that it's difficult to compare. How were the 100 miles leading up to that mountain? Constant attacks? What was the weather like? Big difference if 60 degrees or 85 degrees. How many domestiques did the leaders still have going into the mountain. Also, e.g. last year (or the year before?), Alpe D'Huez was done twice.

I doubt you would find anyone within the top 20 today that is clean.

Also, basically all coaches, doctors, team managers that are there today have been there 15 years ago...

Rick Grimes wrote:

http://bikeraceinfo.com/tdf/tdfstats.html

Here you go, highest speed was 2005 at 41.5KPH and from 2010-12 averaged around 39.5KPH. Obviously course and weather can affect this but it is a good comparison point.

when the wattage of the entire tour takes a big jump suddenly then you know.

or if new testing comes in and the entire tour's wattage drops then you know.

if a woman is sporting a beard suddenly, you know the testosterone is way up...

the top riders are as clean as radcliffe and rupp; not busted yet

just sayin wrote:

20-40% of past fully doped tours

the top guys froome contador nibali are all doped

You haven't been paying attention.

Nutella1 wrote:

...basically all coaches, doctors, team managers that are there today have been there 15 years ago...

This is all one really needs to know. It's a pretty non-specific assertion to say 'basically all' then not site details but knowing the sport that assumption is not far off the mark. All of these insiders know that talent, plus support, plus chemistry are how you put a guy on the podium in Paris. The prisoner's dilemma arms-race situation then forces their hand.

Nibali's charge through the mountains on state 14? was eerily similar to Froome's attacks last year. He was just sitting in the saddle looking around as he motored past guys that were falling to pieces. Great television but certainly a stretch in credulity that one man could be that dominant over the rest.

The "Cycling aficionados" on letsrun are the most retarded people I have ever heard. I tried making a thread, and all they would say is "you must not know very much about cycling" (been following cycling for almost 20 years), and then they would say something else that is completely wrong. It is painful how entitled these retards think they are.

lol.

"It is painful how entitled these retards think they are."

Truth.

While it's likely that there is significant cheating going on, the UCI has taken substantial anti-doping steps in the past year, having established an (supposedly) independent testing body and having instituted the biological passport for top tier professional teams. Whatever the current level of doping, it's probably at the lowest level in decades.

Today's climb on the Huatacam in historical perspective:

https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/492332409677828096

The only riders to breakthrough the outlier of the '94 and '96 fields are Armstrong in 2000, and now Nabali, and Nabali's win today was a solo effort after the final break.

As Nutella explained above, there are reasons why '94 and '96 were so fast up this climb. The stage was mostly flat those years and the riders had legs for the climbing. In 2000 Huatacam was toward the first week of the tour. If that's the case than Nibali's ride would stick out even further as an outlier.

My observations are only meant to support the idea that the culture of elite cycling has changed little since affaire Armstong. I still view it as a grand sport with incredible athletes, as I do with the track.

AHAHAHHAAHA wrote:

The "Cycling aficionados" on letsrun are the most retarded people I have ever heard. I tried making a thread, and all they would say is "you must not know very much about cycling" (been following cycling for almost 20 years), and then they would say something else that is completely wrong. It is painful how entitled these retards think they are.

YES!!!!!!!!!!!

hulksmash wrote:

the idea that the culture of elite cycling has changed little

THIS 100 times. The culture is still there, however, we have had much better doping controls in the past few years and therefore the athletes are a lot more careful. That doesn't mean they wouldn't go back to full dose EPO if they could. If they could, they would.

Although I'd like to believe differently, having been fooled too often the last 20-25 years as a fan of the sport I can't help but think this year's racers are not much different than racers from prior years. The one thing that has me somewhat optimistic is that it seems like we've seen more cracks than usual among most of the top contenders as well as the peloton in general. In the past, with Armstrong, Pantani, Ullrich, Contador a few years ago, etc etc etc it seemed like you had the superstar who blew everyone away (and we later found was likely doped to the gills), but then you had a large pack of riders just a tier below who were able to ride more or less strongly throughout the 3 weeks. Where they lost time, I'm talking the top domestiques here, not the upper level GC contenders, was the days they packed it in on purpose to save themselves for tomorrow. We still see that this year, but to my eyes it seems like more guys higher up on GC are having those same kind of difficult days. Today Valverde was the one. Earlier on Tejay and Talanski both had real bad days (Talanski before he crashed out).

My suspicion is that formal doping plans are still occurring, but that they are being managed on a more conservative scale and therefore aren't as effective as we've seen in prior years. For example, let's say the testing level for some compound is 50 parts per and usual presence in one's body is 30 parts per. In the past the doping programs have gone right up to that level for some riders, and they've gotten in trouble when things go wrong and their body turns say 49 parts per into 55 parts per. Busted. I feel like now they're limiting what they're trying to create to say 40 parts per...a boost, but not near the level where they'll be likely to get caught even if things go a little sideways in your body.

I could be totally off base on that, but that's what I'm feeling based on the racing I'm seeing.

I watched the NBC sports guys interview Nibali's coach before the race and they all seemed slightly uncomfortable. The dude seems like he would be doping his guys.