When will the stock market crash?

Crash or correct? History tells us that there will almost certainly be a correction before year's end in the area of 19%. History also tells us the market will then bounce back in excess of 30%. I'm standing pat (mostly).

[quote]Big tooth investor wrote:

Crash or correct? History tells us that there will almost certainly be a correction before year's end in the area of 19%. History also tells us the market will then bounce back in excess of 30%.

Can you give us the details as to why you think history "teaches" us "..there will almost certainly be a correction before year's end in the area of 19%"? And that "History also tells us the market will then bounce back in excess of 30%"?

And why anyone would remain in the market for an almost certain correction of 19%?

I'm thinking October 2014 will be when the correction is confirmed

October 13th is the most likely day of the crash based on my models.

Given the level of central control of the financial system it would seem unlikely that a single day or a small span of days would see the percentage point drops necessary to be deemed a "crash." If there is an event of this historical magnitude that doesn't destroy the system wholesale (given the extreme leverage and absence of corrective market forces currently) then it is likely a "crash" being orchestrated/guided along by the central planners.

The real answer is that the so called "crash" is happening everyday as inflation accelerates and more of the free money we handed (and continue to hand) to the banker-crooks enters the "real" financial markets. As the government numbers shed even their last threads of plausibility you will still find the majority of Americans think that there is a recovery afoot. But, then again, the majority of Americans don't realize the globalist elites have 99% destroyed the America they idealize and hold onto. America is currently paying the price for being the legitimate adversary to the delusions of Marxists for most of the 20th century. All the good things that America has stood for, the things which resonate with true patriots and lovers of freedom, are anathema to the cynical ego-centrism of your typical globalist. Every effort is being made to socialize/sanitize the American cultural narrative to make Americans more willing to buy into the existential nonsense of socialism, which real Americans of past generations dismissed almost naturally.

When's the next time congress has to pass a budget? I'd guess it'll happen then.

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bubbadeeboo wrote:

When's the next time congress has to pass a budget? I'd guess it'll happen then.

Doubt it. The deficit has closed more than anyone projected. The next budget won't be that hard to pass, and Obama is doing whatever he likes instead of trying to work with the republicans. The publicans took a whipping after the last shutdown. They won't want that again.

It'll be a snowball effect for awhile. Market goes up, taxes taken in go up, more money is going around, jobs keep getting created. You'll see a few more years of this before the wheels stop turning.

I could see it dropping 5%. 19%? Possible but highly unlikely.

Not Obama-hating here, but the deficit will still be larger than the previous president's 2nd-worst deficit year.And I hope your sentence following the "snowball" sentence wasn't meant as a sequential cause and effect. If it was, you should move the taxes to the end, not the second position in the sentence.

Mrr82 wrote:

bubbadeeboo wrote:

When's the next time congress has to pass a budget? I'd guess it'll happen then.

Doubt it. The deficit has closed more than anyone projected. The next budget won't be that hard to pass, and Obama is doing whatever he likes instead of trying to work with the republicans. The publicans took a whipping after the last shutdown. They won't want that again.

It'll be a snowball effect for awhile. Market goes up, taxes taken in go up, more money is going around, jobs keep getting created. You'll see a few more years of this before the wheels stop turning.

I could see it dropping 5%. 19%? Possible but highly unlikely.

Is it any wonder wrote:

Big tooth investor wrote:

Crash or correct? History tells us that there will almost certainly be a correction before year's end in the area of 19%. History also tells us the market will then bounce back in excess of 30%.

Can you give us the details as to why you think history "teaches" us "..there will almost certainly be a correction before year's end in the area of 19%"? And that "History also tells us the market will then bounce back in excess of 30%"?

And why anyone would remain in the market for an almost certain correction of 19%?

In every midterm election year since 1962 the market has corrected an average of 19%. Following each correction the market has gained an average of 32% in the next 12 months. There's your history lesson.

As for why would anyone remain in the market, I'd say it's foolish to try to time things like this. Most who do try will get burned.

The NYSE will almost certainly "crash" quite literally when Russian- and Al Qaeda-backed operatives will crash the subverted MH370 777 jet into Wall Street in lower Manhattan

I have to think that the Israeli invasion of Gaza will quickly become a much, much bigger--multinational--conflict.

The simple reality is that the U.S. will get involved if it perceives any serious threat to Israel's (claimed) territory. There are just too many in Congress whose reelections depend on being perceived a friend to Israel.

[NB: I have *never* made a previous post of any kind about Israel. I'm not one of those ranters, nor am I an anti-Semite--just trying to look at the situation realistically, and its likely effect on the economy.]

As a result I think the stock market is likely to have a dramatic drop some time around the 10th of August. Fortunately, I'm not in the market at this time. Unfortunately, when the economy tanks my work (I'm a temp) typically dries up.

Huh????

You're saying it's going to go down 19% as a history has proven, but you'd be foolish to try and time it as you'll get burned? Um...which is it, and yes I'm serious.

In every midterm election year since 1962 the market has corrected an average of 19%. Following each correction the market has gained an average of 32% in the next 12 months. There's your history lesson.

As for why would anyone remain in the market, I'd say it's foolish to try to time things like this. Most who do try will get burned.[/quote]

econ guy wrote:

Not Obama-hating here, but the deficit will still be larger than the previous president's 2nd-worst deficit year.

Doesn't Congress control the purse strings, not Obama?

You seem to forget the 1,000 point drop in the Dow over a few minutes back maybe 5 years ago

Big tooth investor wrote:

[quote]Is it any wonder wrote:

[quote]Big tooth investor wrote:

In every midterm election year since 1962 the market has corrected an average of 19%. Following each correction the market has gained an average of 32% in the next 12 months. There's your history lesson.

That is clearly false.

As for why would anyone remain in the market, I'd say it's foolish to try to time things like this. Most who do try will get burned.

You are certain the marker will correct downward 19% this October but think it foolish to get out of the market? WTF?

Wonder wrote Stevie wrote:

Huh????

You're saying it's going to go down 19% as a history has proven, but you'd be foolish to try and time it as you'll get burned? Um...which is it, and yes I'm serious.

It is both. The history of the market as well as the history of those who try to time it are both etched in stone.

But if you try to time it and miss, aren't you more likely to be fine taking it out a tad earlier...versus waiting and losing 19%? The odds are you're not going to gain 19% 30 days before...unless you know something that I don't:):):):):):)

Big tooth investor wrote:

Wonder wrote Stevie wrote:

Huh????

You're saying it's going to go down 19% as a history has proven, but you'd be foolish to try and time it as you'll get burned? Um...which is it, and yes I'm serious.

It is both. The history of the market as well as the history of those who try to time it are both etched in stone.

arhrh wrote:

I have to think that the Israeli invasion of Gaza will quickly become a much, much bigger--multinational--conflict.

The simple reality is that the U.S. will get involved if it perceives any serious threat to Israel's (claimed) territory. There are just too many in Congress whose reelections depend on being perceived a friend to Israel.

[NB: I have *never* made a previous post of any kind about Israel. I'm not one of those ranters, nor am I an anti-Semite--just trying to look at the situation realistically, and its likely effect on the economy.]

As a result I think the stock market is likely to have a dramatic drop some time around the 10th of August. Fortunately, I'm not in the market at this time. Unfortunately, when the economy tanks my work (I'm a temp) typically dries up.

how could anyone else possibly get roped into this conflict?

That's like suggesting a full on war will break out over our current crisis at the US-Mexico border