Can someone tell my why Mary Cain is running 3000 not 1500 at World Juniors?

Cain's been quoted as saying it was a way to do World Juniors without having to run rounds [either at US Juniors or at World Juniors.]

Not the most compelling explanation I've ever seen, but that seems to be the official story.

Now let the "Cain is ducking Efraimson and Cranny" deluge begin.

I'm not sure and I could be wrong but I think it's because she wants to.

Maybe Alberto and Mary think that the 3000m is a good race for her. She raced hard at the U.S. Championships in the 1500m and now she wants to move up a distance. In the long run, she may end up being a 5000m runner, so the 3000m is a good transition to the longer race.

As a collegiate 1500m runner, I use to get burned out of running a bunch of 1500's by the end of the season. I would have liked to move up to the 3000 outdoor, but it was not an option except for the steeplechase. I remember once talking to Coach Geiger at N.C. State and he said "never turn down an opportunity to race the flat 3000 outdoors". I doubt Salazar is talking with Geiger, but I do agree that it is a fun race that is rarely contested outdoors at the championship level.

3K is probably just a better fit for her season. Its likely she will get a very good race at World's. The bonus is that all three girls get a spot on the world team. I am sure she will get plenty of good 1500's later in the year.

She wants to recapture 3k bragging rights over Alexa. Looking for the USA Junior record at World's. Also, she still has the USATF Junior meet record for the 1500, and has added the meet record in the 3k.

Getting gold at World's is a challenge in either event.

The 3k WL (Jr) is 8:41.54 (Defar ran 8:40.28, Dibaba 8:41.26 as juniors, so the current world lead is very respectable). There are two Ethiopians and one Kenyan under 8:50 this year. So Cain is going to have big trouble getting to the podium.

The 1500 WL (Jr) is 3:59.53. Alexa is number 3 in the world according to IAAF and has a shot at the podium.(actually number 4 if you count Cain's time at USATF). Elise has a shot also, obviously.

She isn't running it because AlSal is afraid she might not win. Not necessarily to Efraimson or Cranny, but someone else. Now, if she loses the 3000, they can just say it isn't her main focus. Not that she will lose, but it is a good excuse. It is okay for her to lose to Simpson and Uceny because she is supposed to at this point. But she isn't supposed to be losing to another junior in the 1500.

My best guess is it is her best chance.

Global depth is weaker in the 3000m. Better chance of winning.

If Juniors holds form with Seniors, most likely the pace will set up for a 1500m runner. If someone sets a hot pace from the start, she will have trouble. But if it unfolds like an Olympic 5000, she will be perfectly tuned to rock the final third of the race. It will probably favor someone who could run the 1000m really well.

i will try to answer that in 2 words.

dawit sayeum

Lantern wrote:

I'm not sure and I could be wrong but I think it's because she wants to.

Cain said in her interview because there's only one round, and she wants to be sharper a month from now.

What a load of crap. Whoth all the mileage they do and at such a young age she couldn't recover from 3 rounds of a 1500 or 2 rounds of a 3000 in a month? Come on!

J.R. wrote:

Lantern wrote:

I'm not sure and I could be wrong but I think it's because she wants to.

Cain said in her interview because there's only one round, and she wants to be sharper a month from now.

don't pay attention to HS wrote:

I don't pay attention to the junior ranks and say she ran the 3000, not the 1500?

Can someone explain that? Is it easier to win gold?

Has Alberto offered an explanation?

I heard that's it's because who gives a sh*t, it's her career and she can run whichever races she wants. Just what I heard, though.

May be looking to peak later in the season at 1500m. Wants to get in some over distance racing and transition to more speed endurance, sharpening with shorter speed intervals later in the summer. May want to avoid the intangibles of the 1500m - kicking off a slow pace with faster runners, running in traffic with a group of faster runners etc. She will do well in the 3K.

you are overthinking things.

nn wrote:

May be looking to peak later in the season at 1500m. Wants to get in some over distance racing and transition to more speed endurance, sharpening with shorter speed intervals later in the summer. May want to avoid the intangibles of the 1500m - kicking off a slow pace with faster runners, running in traffic with a group of faster runners etc. She will do well in the 3K.

qleen qanteen wrote:

I heard that's it's because who gives a sh*t, it's her career and she can run whichever races she wants. Just what I heard, though.

The same reason Usain Bolt runs the 100M. He's just dodging all the 1500M competition and figures it easier to win gold in the 100M.

dkny64 wrote:

Cain's been quoted as saying it was a way to do World Juniors without having to run rounds [either at US Juniors or at World Juniors.]

Not the most compelling explanation I've ever seen, but that seems to be the official story.

Now let the "Cain is ducking Efraimson and Cranny" deluge begin.

LOLOLOLOL. Nobody is this stupid at this point. Efraimson is clearly better than Cranny, and Cain just annihilated Efraimson to take 2nd in the 1500 US championships, while Efraimson couldn't make it out of the heats. Nothing against Efraimson, who is becoming a great runner, but Cain was about as close to Simpson as anyone else was to her. Cain is, on any given day, in any given race scenario, one of the top 3 women in the country at 1500m. I'm guessing that if she was in Simpson's 3:57.2 race, she'd have snuck under 4.

Ok, I'll chime in. To begin with, I think too much is probably being made of this. Put yourself in Cain's shoes (with Salazar in the shadows behind her) and it's not too hard to understand the possible reasons. Any one of us who has been a competitive runner knows it's not uncommon to make racing decisions for multiple reasons rather than one.

As for the potential reasons, first, as was said just above, Cain is clearly much better than Efraimson at 1500m at this point, as demonstrated at USATF Seniors. So I don't attribute running the 3000m at Juniors to ducking. And at the other end of the ducking scale, against the Ethiopians and Kenyans, either event is going to be equally loaded.

Second, if you were a 1500m runner, would you *really* want to run nothing but 1500s all outdoor season long other than a couple of early 800s? C'mon. We've all been there. Variety is the spice.

Third, Cain has gotten a late start to the outdoor season and doesn't appear fully speed-sharp yet. At the same time, as someone else already said, the 3000m may be more likely to turn into a sit-and-kick affair, in which case that situation would likely be easier for her to use her speed when she is not fully sharp with it off of a fast pace.

Fourth, why not do something that would be different for her right now and thus be fun. Cain said as much during a recent interview and I see no reason to doubt that. She obviously still likes having a lot of fun, and did so gabbing with the high school girls in the 3000m. Thankfully she seems to be able to remain fairly relaxed about things.

Fourth, as she also said in the interview, no rounds in the 3000m enables training through at this point in the season. While one can't always take things at face value, at the same time it's just one more reason among others, none of which seem mutually exclusive.

In any event, which reasons may or may not apply, I say more power to her. The fast/hard 1500s are going to come later in the season. Patience.