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| Sir Lance-alot |
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Vipam
HE'S(Vipam) and IT'S( 'the thread') BACK!!!! Vipam, this has been debated before. Many of us think that El G running 3 heats in the 1500, and especially a grueling, emotional final, just a day before 5000 heats began is equally fatiguing as Kenny B running a single 10,000 final SEVERAL days( a week?) before the 5000 heats began. Especially this last time, where Kenny B waited until the last lap in the 10,000 and then showed he had a ton left with his final blazing 400. But either way, I think the analysis of which was a more fatiguing schedule prior to the 5000 final (El G's or Bekele's) is a moot point. THE POINT REALLY IS: if Bekele continues to wait until the last lap in the 5k (ESPECIALLY like he did in the Olympics this year), and turn the race into a miler's dream-come-true, he will CONTINUE to lose to El G, whether or not they are both fresh or both tired. And it is equally true, that if he runs a SMARTER TACTICAL race in the 5k, going out from the gun, pushing the pace the whole way with teammates, I think he can beat El G in the 5k, again, regardless of who ran what before the 5k. In short, Bekele losing twice to El G in 5k's in the last 2 years had a LOT LESS to do with him running a supposedly harder double, and a LOT MORE to do with his poor tactics in BOTH races (but especially in the 2004 Olympic final where he apparently believe what many of the LetsRun crowd were saying: that he could outkick El G even off a slow pace. I thought it was ludicrous to think so then, and of course still think it is ludicrous). Don't blame "your boy's" losses on tough doubles, BLAME THEM ON TACTICS. |
| Sir Lance-alot |
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For all the credit that Vipam has received for his great predictions on Bekele destroying the 5k and 10k world records (and he has gotten credit, and it is WELL deserved!), I do think we should point out that in this very first post of his on this thread, he made the following comment:
If one is going to give credit for great predictions, one must also point out wrong predictions. Vipam, Bekele is 0 for 2 against EL G in 5k finals. And the reason for that is because he, as I already pointed out, did not take your (and many others) advice and "force the pace" (well at least not enough. In 2003, he did for awhile, but then decided to wait for the kick. And then he got caught by surprise, and ran extra steps to get back in the mix....but it was too late. In 2004, he barely "forced the pace" at all). These tactics cost him 2 golds. So you have always been correct about Bekele's unparalled talent, but did not consider possible poor tactical decisions that young runners sometimes make......especially the ultra-talented ones. |
| tktrack |
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Racer 1 wrote: "Ah, others may break it, but Bekele will take it back!" Give me a break! El Guerrouj is a 3:43 miler. Anything Bekele runs can be surpassed by El Guerrouj, simply because he has so much more speed. If Lagat or a healthy Ngeny ever worked up enough strength, they would also blow away anything Bekele runs. It is only because El G is an especially strong miler that he happens to be the one able to do it. i suppose we should then conclude from this post that gatlin will be making an attempt on the marathon record? just because you have more speed does not make you better at events longer than your primary one. do you think that wariner could beat el g in the mile? i think not. |
| okay you are ok |
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i think he will get some records OK!!!!!! |
| Yowsa |
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Yours is an exceptionally stupid statement. El Guerrouj is moving to an event one tier above his primary one, after already having run it in his past (1992 13:46 as a junior). Gatline moving to the marathon is not even close to being comparable. It's OK, though; most people do not think so well under the influence of controlled substances. |
| Bekeledebut |
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Bekele signs up for Edinburgh Cross Monday 29 November 2004 Kenenisa Bekele, the World and Olympic 10,000m champion has confirmed his entry for the Great Edinburgh International Cross Country – IAAF permit race – which will take place in the city’s ancient Holyrood Park on 15 January 2005. This is the first race of the current season in which Bekele, 22, the three-time double World Cross Country champion has agreed to participate. David Hart, Marketing Director of the event, said: "We've always had a great relationship with Kenenisa and three years ago, he scored the first of his two consecutive Great North International victories." "We actually gave Bekele his first opportunity to run on British soil although he was virtually unknown outside of Ethiopia. But he quickly became a well known athlete when three months after his first Newcastle win, he claimed the World junior cross country title a day after finishing second in the senior short course race. His career since then has, despite the odd injury, been phenomenal and already despite his youth, he is acknowledged as one of the all-time greats." Indeed this year, as well as his third World Cross short and long course double, Bekele on the track set a World Indoor 5000m record, and then outdoors established 5000 and 10,000m World records, before capturing the Olympic 10,000m title and a silver medal at 5000m on the heels of Hicham El Guerrouj’s victory. The women's race in Edinburgh already includes Benita Johnson, the Australian winner of this year’s World Cross Country long course title in Brussels last March. |
| Bekeledebut |
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Poll from www.iaaf.org RESULTS: If Kenenisa Bekele and Hicham El Guerrouj clash in the short course race at the 2005 World Cross Country Championships in St Etienne - St Galmier, France in March: who would the winner be? Kenenisa Bekele 72.29% Hicham El Guerrouj 27.71% whoa not too many people have faith in Hicham ability in x-country where anything could happen. |
| trackhead |
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it's not a lack of faith in El Guerrouj -- it's the belief that Bekele as no equal on a cross country course |
| Chombe |
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I agree, I would also add that Bekele should make the case that in 1-to-1 race with EL G, he indeed is unbeatable - XC or/and Track. Taking on El G in France next March and winning the short course makes up the loss he suffered in Athens. Then on the planned ambition of EL G attacking the WR of 5K, Bekele needs to step up to the plate and defeneding it, even improving it. Accomplishing those will, in my judgement, clearly establish that Kenenisa Bekele indeed is the next big thing in distance runner that could fill in the great Haile Geb shoe. |
| Vipam |
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I agree that in a single Short Course matchup Kenenisa would easily dispatch Hicham and in a single 5000m Championship on the track. The only problem is that Kenenisa loves to double and that may create another difficult obstacle to overcome in 2005. Kenenisa plans to improve the Ethopian 1500m indoor NR and run a few outdoor 1500m to combat Hicham's speed and improve his own to further enable him to break more records. I hope I'm wrong but if Kenenisa TRY the DOUBLE at this year X-Country Championship he may very well find incredibly strenuous competition from few Kenyans (John Korir, Eluid Kipchoge, and Sammy Kipketer) and few young Ethopians. 2005 is the year for Kenenisa to focus on single race Championships to best improve his chances of beating Hicham and keep fresh for World records shortly before and after World Championships. It would be the greatest race in many years if Hicham and Kenenisa meet in a 5000m outdoor World Record attempt, I would love to see if Hicham could hang with sub 12:35 pace in a race (not time trial)? VIPAM |
| FtWorthStridder |
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Kenenisa have lost to Hicham twice in their two meetings and that should be the primary focus of his 2005 to avenge his loses before Hicham retires. If Kenny B. don't beat Hicham in 2005 it will be a big boost for Hicham's career and a big stain for Kenny B's. I really hope to see them race twice once on the European circuit and once at the World Championships to see who is the best? |
| Yowsa |
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Thank you Vipam, I think you make it quite clear that in your opinion Bekele can do no wrong. Sorry to say, though, that there are other athletes out there that can beat him and take his records (El G, Shaheen, Kipchoge, Sihine). (Cue Vipam falling to the ground ripping out his hair as he contemplates physical retribution towards me for daring to suggest his idol can be beaten. The hero worship at time borders on ridiculous.) |
| Californian |
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"It would be the greatest race in many years if Hicham and Kenenisa meet in a 5000m outdoor World Record attempt, I would love to see if Hicham could hang with sub 12:35 pace in a race (not time trial)?" Bekele's PR is 12:37. And that was in a time trial. He also hasn't proven that he can hang with sub 12:35 pace in a race. |
| Yowsa |
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Shhhh. Don't confuse Vipam with logic. It might interfere with his daily ministrations lying prostrate on the floor humming Gregorian chant and meditating on Bekele's quadriceps muscles. |
| Ksing |
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....Then on the planned ambition of EL G attacking the WR of 5K, Bekele needs to step up to the plate and defending it, even improving it. Well well well, Bekele vs. El G going to duke it out on XC, that is going to be an interesting match up - though as the poll indicates and I believe too that he would easily show his prowess of the mud, singing in the rain and sailing home easy, just like he did the past three years. But the most important race of the year would be the 5k World Record face off between him and EL G. As many of you already pointed out, Bekele not only defending his coveted world record of 5K but also need to make it clear that in a single race he indeed is the sole champion. As EL G eyeing the end of his career soon, Bekele need to accept the challenge posed by EL G and make up for the loss he suffered by winning in world record time. What makes the Haile Gebreslassie great is that, in his prime time, not only broke record after record, but he took the challenge from his fiercest rivals and humbled them all. |
| gav800 |
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poor tactics are what cost Kenny the 5000 olympic gold and the 03 WC 5000 gold. correct. however, talking about tiredness becuase of doubles. HOW DUMB ARE ELUID KIPCHOGE AND THE KENYANS!!!! kipchoge had 2 other kenyans in the race with him, together the 3 of them could have forced the pace to suit kipchoge as he was perfectly fresh and running against 2 tired athletes. Kipchoge has run -12:50 so his ability to run fast is unquestionable, stupid mistake from him. I think the only way that kenny b could outkick elguerrouj is if it was a WR pace, and even then they would both be shoulder to shoulder on the last lap, i cant imagine either of them being dropped at say 3500m on a fast pace race. the thought of someone running away/breaking guerrouj or bekele is just ludacris, wouldnt happen. |
| Vipam |
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--Yowsa Yes I think Kenenisa is phenomenal talent as well is Hicham. It is my opinion as it is others that Kenenisa is capable of beating Hicham in a championship or world record attempt. I just think that he will have to run one event in order to do it; otherwise, he may suffer the same fate if he chooses to double again. Hicham is a supreme talent and one that will force Kenenisa to end his doubles in order to beat him on the track or again get beat. You think thats why he's running 1500m in 2005 to improve his speed for his double/clash with Hicham, Shaheen, and Eluid in the 5000m? --Californian I know that Kenenisa pb (5000m world record)is 12:37.35 but the reference to sub 12:35 is what I think he will run in 2005. In order for Hicham to break the world record or retain it (if he breaks if before Kenenisa) he will need to think sub 12:35. Kenenisa race was a solo time trial which is alot different in the 5000m than the 1500m; therefore, it is highly probable that he could go much faster with better rabbits or if forced in a world attempt/race. I think Hicham have the ability to run sub 12:40 but he will need the rabbit to go further than Kenenisa's did in his WR run. Can Hicham get the 5000m record if he is alone after 3000-3200m? VIPAM |
| Vipam |
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What kind of time will Kenenisa run in the 1500m if he runs at least 3 IAAF Grand Prix races? I say under 3:31 at the least! What kind of time do you think Kenenisa could run in a Super Grand Prix race with good rabbits? If he does run the 1500m successfully will this enable him to handle Hicham with success in the 5000m? VIPAM |
| Yowsa |
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Then why do you post as though you know with certainty Bekele will win every time? Do you think it a coincidence that MANY people hav called you on showing near IDOL WORSHIP towards this athlete? And where do you come up with these predictions? You attempt to guess his time to the hundredth of a second. You were pretty close once, way off the next time, and all of a sudden you know his 1500m time? The world must be full of fortune tellers who know everything about their favorite athlete. |
| Californian |
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"--Californian I know that Kenenisa pb (5000m world record)is 12:37.35 but the reference to sub 12:35 is what I think he will run in 2005. In order for Hicham to break the world record or retain it (if he breaks if before Kenenisa) he will need to think sub 12:35. Kenenisa race was a solo time trial which is alot different in the 5000m than the 1500m; therefore, it is highly probable that he could go much faster with better rabbits or if forced in a world attempt/race. I think Hicham have the ability to run sub 12:40 but he will need the rabbit to go further than Kenenisa's did in his WR run. Can Hicham get the 5000m record if he is alone after 3000-3200m? VIPAM" Then why didn't you originally pose the question: "Lets see if El Gerroudj and Bekele can hang at sub 12:35 pace in a race?" Because neither has done it yet. You may think that Bekele is more capable of doing it, but the fact of the matter is that it is an unknown qunatity as to whether he can do it. |
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