Rupp WILL not break 26:48

Thanks for saying what he won't do.

Now tell us what he will do, and I will be more impressed if it comes true.

Isn't that the easy prediction?

If someone says they are going to try and run faster than any American has ever run, arent the chances greater that they dont, rather than that they do?

So yeah, way to go out on a limb there dude.

80sRunner wrote:

Isn't that the easy prediction?

If someone says they are going to try and run faster than any American has ever run, arent the chances greater that they dont, rather than that they do?

So yeah, way to go out on a limb there dude.

It depends on whether or not the race gains the all-important last-minute Rupp-Certification (TM).

well all the fanboys wish to say he will break 26:48. He will run 27:02.

BOOM!

backwater wrote:

80sRunner wrote:

Isn't that the easy prediction?

If someone says they are going to try and run faster than any American has ever run, arent the chances greater that they dont, rather than that they do?

So yeah, way to go out on a limb there dude.

It depends on whether or not the race gains the all-important last-minute Rupp-Certification (TM).

The Rupp Certified joke was funny the first 3000 times, but not anymore.

Actually the 3,001 time has been the funniest to date.

I agree, he won't break 26:48. Sometimes athletes have that one special race that is like an outlier of their career and they never run close ever again. For Solinsky it was his 2659. For Rupp his 2648. For Alan Webb it was his 3:46.91 mile.

The thing is if you run long enough you just get that special day where the heavens align and God gives you strength and everything goes perfect. But its just that, that ONE special day. Rupp will never break 27 again. Suck it up and accept it and carry on.

NotAustin18 wrote:

I agree, he won't break 26:48. Sometimes athletes have that one special race that is like an outlier of their career and they never run close ever again. For Solinsky it was his 2659. For Rupp his 2648. For Alan Webb it was his 3:46.91 mile.

The thing is if you run long enough you just get that special day where the heavens align and God gives you strength and everything goes perfect. But its just that, that ONE special day. Rupp will never break 27 again. Suck it up and accept it and carry on.

Was his 26:48 really better than a 7:30, 8:07 or 13:01 indoors? Better than a 12:58 for 3rd at PRE? Better than a silver medal at the olympics? I'd say it's right in line and not an outlier. I'm sure Ventolin can give us some equivalents.

The biggest factor for 10K is opportunity. There are just not many chances to run a good 10000 these days. Partly because Bekele knocked it out of the park and the chances for setting a WR are slim-none so there is not as much motivation to set up good 10,000 when people have no shot of seeing a WR or even close to it. Partly because guys like Rupp and Farah, who can run under 26:40 don't chase a fast 10K in a championship year because they view the championship as the most important.

There is no indication that Rupp is not as good, if not much better than 2011. He just hasn't raced in a fast 10000 since then. In fact, this will be the fastest 10000 he's raced in since 2011.

stick with eharmony wrote:

He's a great runner but he's not in 26:48 shape. sorry

He was a great runner. Still a good runner, but not a threat to the AR any longer.

well., wrote:

The Rupp Certified joke was funny the first 3000 times, but not anymore.

So cries the fanboy. Rupp fans have to accept the Rupp's best times are in the past. He can still drop a decent time, but fans have to stop assuming that slow-steady progress can continue forever. Rupp is getting older in age, and is getting quite old based on high-intensity mileage. Athletes have a limit. Rupp is not immune to that limit.

NotAustin18 wrote:

I agree, he won't break 26:48. Sometimes athletes have that one special race that is like an outlier of their career and they never run close ever again. For Solinsky it was his 2659. For Rupp his 2648. For Alan Webb it was his 3:46.91 mile.

The thing is if you run long enough you just get that special day where the heavens align and God gives you strength and everything goes perfect. But its just that, that ONE special day. Rupp will never break 27 again. Suck it up and accept it and carry on.

well webb also ran 3:30.54 extremely similar to a 3:46.91 mile which equates to a 3:30.25 for 1500 (iaaf table), depending on the conversion tables used the 3:30.54 is actually slightly better than the 3:46.91 mile by some tables

douglas burke wrote:

NotAustin18 wrote:

I agree, he won't break 26:48. Sometimes athletes have that one special race that is like an outlier of their career and they never run close ever again. For Solinsky it was his 2659. For Rupp his 2648. For Alan Webb it was his 3:46.91 mile.

The thing is if you run long enough you just get that special day where the heavens align and God gives you strength and everything goes perfect. But its just that, that ONE special day. Rupp will never break 27 again. Suck it up and accept it and carry on.

well webb also ran 3:30.54 extremely similar to a 3:46.91 mile which equates to a 3:30.25 for 1500 (iaaf table), depending on the conversion tables used the 3:30.54 is actually slightly better than the 3:46.91 mile by some tables

Those are 2 races out of an entire career, and were run pretty close to each other. Those are the outliers I was talking about.

NotAustin18 wrote:

douglas burke wrote:

well webb also ran 3:30.54 extremely similar to a 3:46.91 mile which equates to a 3:30.25 for 1500 (iaaf table), depending on the conversion tables used the 3:30.54 is actually slightly better than the 3:46.91 mile by some tables

Those are 2 races out of an entire career, and were run pretty close to each other. Those are the outliers I was talking about.

I'd also add in the 1:43 he ran the same summer, as well 3:53 as a High Schooler! Maybe his 27:3X out of nowhere. Webb was talented and physically capable all the while, it was his head and inconsistency with a program that got the best of him. Leo Manzano?!

Those are 2 races out of an entire career, and were run pretty close to each other. Those are the outliers I was talking about.[/quote]

"These aren't the droids you were looking for." :)

There are also 1:43.84, 13:10.86; 27:34.0. Rupp will have other great races, I assure you.

There once was a runner wrote:

Rupp fans have to accept the Rupp's best times are in the past. He can still drop a decent time, but fans have to stop assuming that slow-steady progress can continue forever. Rupp is getting older in age, and is getting quite old based on high-intensity mileage. Athletes have a limit. Rupp is not immune to that limit.

Try telling that to Lagat. The guy has set PRs into his late 30s in the 5k, and routinely thrashes athletes who are almost half his age.

Jubilation T. Cornpone wrote:

Rupp will have other great races, I assure you.

How do you ass sure such a thing?

Seyta wrote:

Try telling that to Lagat. The guy has set PRs into his late 30s in the 5k, and routinely thrashes athletes who are almost half his age.

Lagat runs 50-60 mpw, and touches on 70 in base. He runs once a day 6 days a week. His only cross training is core work once a week.

Rupp runs 110-120 mpw with an extra 20 mpw underwater and lifts twice a week. Rupp ran 1337 the summer after HS on 50-60 mpw! Why in the world does he increase his volume? Seriously!!!! He should have kept his training the same as HS senior year and just continued to do the workouts faster each year as he improved, like Lagat!

Comparing their workload, of course Lagat's been around a long time and of course Rupp's time is limited.

NotAustin18 wrote:

Rupp's time is limited.

Rupp is not ageless. That has nothing to do with actual age. It has everything to do with physical age. Rupp trained for an AR in the 10k and got it. Rupp has not been trained for longevity like Lagat. Rupp's best times are in the past.