Posted a similar reply in the DIII thread, but I edited it to fit this NESCAC one. (regional finish in parentheses)
1) Williams - (Placed 1st, return 3 of 5) Cotton and Mazaheri could go 1,2 in the region. Inde, Ford, and Townsend (if he can stay healthy for once) will make a solid top-5. Plus, they're deep and always bring in a solid freshmen class. Lastly, they have home-course advantage. They will be extremely hard to beat at regional.
2) Colby - (Placed 6th, return 5 of 5) Chelimo and Hale has great outdoor seasons. Chelimo is my dark horse to challenge Cotton for the regional crown. The only question regarding Colby is the status of Silas Eastman. Where has he been??
ABOVE: Teams that will contend for the title
BELOW: Teams that will contend for third place.
3) Tufts - (Placed 4th, return 2 of 5) Tufts loses a lot--Shapero (12th last year), Wallis, and Norton. But their depth will carry them to a top five finish.
4) Amherst - (Placed 8th, return 4 of 5) This is a wildcard pick really. They return a solid, experienced core led by Crowley (18th last year). Really just think that Middlebury, Bowdoin, and Bates lose too much to be able to pull off a top 5 finish.
5) Middlebury - (Placed 2nd, return 1 of 5, 3 of 7) Midd loses a lot, but return a great senior leader in Kevin Wood. Sebastian Matt also had a good race for them and will greatly improve next season. They have home-course advantage at NESCACs, and the ability to train in the hills for the regional course. On paper, they place no higher than 5th. But knowing their past ability to surprise and compete when it matters, don't ever count Midd out.
6) Bates - (Placed 5th, return 2 of 5, 4 of 7) Stansel will lead a very young and inexperienced Bates squad that loses a strong senior core. Due to the fact that they do return 4 of 7, they have more upside than Bowdoin.
7) Conn College (12th last year) Obviously they are taking a hit losing last season's individual champ, LeDuc. However, they return everyone else from what was a young conglomerate. They need to work on getting that pack to drop about 20-30 seconds. If things go well, I could see them placing as high as fourth.
8) Bowdoin - (Placed 7th, return 1 of 5, 2 of 7) I can't believe I'm saying this, but Bowdoin coming in is the 8th best team in the conference. They greatly under-performed last season, and with a large conglomerate of seniors graduating, I don't see them doing anything special. They lose Horowitz, Seekins, and Saba. They return Hoose, who had a great outdoor track season and will compete among the NESCAC's best. The fact of the matter is that for the past 2-3 seasons the same 4-5 people had been running varsity. They need to get these young guys lots of race experience if they want to compete for a chance to go to nationals come November.
9) Wesleyan - Returns a strong group of young runners.
10) Hamilton - Led by NCAA qualifier Adam Pfander, Hamilton should be a lock to beat Trinity, but no one else.
11) Trinity - Hoagland had a good outdoor track season and will most certainly compete for a top-35 finish.