Les wrote:
It's going to be very, very hard. He would need to run nearly two full seconds better than his PR. Still, he might have the best 800 speed of any miler currently running, so he might have a shot at 3:26.
Which is precisely the problem these days - the 1500/mile has become a specialist event, where few people can do both a very good 800/1500m or even a 1500/5000. I think it requires very good 800m speed now, but these people no longer do the 1500m seriously and vice versa - that is why the event has stagnated. No one doubles in 800/1500m anymore. If a slow-ass guy like Steve Cram (weak 400 and NO weight-training program - I agree with Ventolin here that strength is important as it is what made Coe - although there were other weaknesses in Coes training program) could run 1.42.8 to run 3.29/3.46, then surely with the coaching of today people can do significantly better. Webb was on the right track at one point, but didn't do enough of the speed racing to be consistent (won't get into his tactical inadequacies), and went off on tangents of running the 10000 and 5000, which didn't suit him (even if was okay at them). I felt the same about Aouita (doping suspicions aside) that he was trying to be all things (greatest overall) instead of a focus on being faster - he could have run either 1500 or 5000 much better if he either did more 800's or 5000's. El G was obviously an endurance-oriented 1500m/miler and moved to the 5000 late in his career, after he had plataued at 1500/mile, much as Lagat has moved to 5000m as he has aged.