How many U.S. runners will break 13:00 this year? What's the average PR of medalists?

Correction, I meant "...who could get in sub-12:50 shape by 2015 and 2016."

The phrase "he rabbited this puppy" sounds too much like a disgusting sex act to be used in high-class journalism.

Fastnbulbous wrote:

Correction, I meant "...who could get in sub-12:50 shape by 2015 and 2016."

U.S. men have a long way to go, but I think we've got at least 3 guys who could get in sub-12:50 shape by ...

That is not going to happen by 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, ....

Despite your convincing argument, I'm betting that yes, they do.

A 12:49.74 on the IAAF scoring table is 1248 points. Those points are also aligned with a 26:46.73 10,000, 8:02.26 SC, 7:28.68 3000, 3:29.80 1500 and 1:42.47 800.

If U.S. men continue progressing as they are, it's doable.

Fastnbulbous wrote:

Both Farah and Lagat never really ran for times, and were easily in at very least 12:48 shape when they won their medals.

Running for time is part of being in shape to run a fast time. If you're not a time-trialer, you're not in time-trial shape. Simple logic.

You're talking about a fantasy world where Lagat and Farah could push hard the whole way like Kipngetich Komen.

Lagat has obviously pushed the whole way in many races from 1500 to 3000, resulting in incredibly fast times. Farah has done so in a 1500. When they have been at peak condition, they have just focused on championship races. Most runners avoid doing longer races in the summer before the championships, as it's better to fine-tune speed than risk having to recover from a hard longer effort. And they just didn't happen to race in any even paced races after championships.

This summer will be a great opportunity to do just that. For Americans to get in a fast 5000 and not have to push the pace themselves, and sucked along to fast times courtesy a couple rabbits and a bunch of the world's best. I don't know what Farah is going to do, but it makes no sense to say he couldn't break 12:50 when he's beaten many men faster than that when it counts the most.

To answer first question, I predict two US men will break 13 this year. Lagat and Rupp. True and Mead will not run faster this year.

I think Lagat is a possibility. He is able to run pretty darn fast and still have a blazing kick. I just don't know how fast he can go when the pace is on the whole way, when he's redlined. As good as he is, he is past his peak and sub 12:50 may have escaped him.

Rupp, while he may not be able to outkick Lagat in 99% of competitive races at 5K, may be able to leave him in a 12:50 or better race. There is no reason Rupp cannot run a under 12:50 based on his outdated 10K PR, recent indoor, mile, 3000, 5000 performances and his 5K at PRE from 2012. It is certainly his least remarkable event over the years with some falls, doubles at intl champs etc. but that doesn't mean he does not have some good ones coming. I'd bet he's running in the mid-low 12:50s routinely this summer and if a race is going 12:48 he can go under.

True is the next current threat, but he needs to get under 13:00 first. Wouldn't be too suprised if he gets into a good Euro 5000 fairly soon that he can bury 13:00 in a race that goes 12:50-12:52. Under 12:50 may be another story this year. I have a feeling his best marks will be coming earlier this summer rather than later, but I hope I'm wrong.

Then we have Mead, Jager, Derrick, Hill and others who are knocking on the door at 13:00. I think Jager is the next best shot and he seems to be able to run more consistently at that high level. The problem is that with the steeple and maybe the 3000 he might only take a couple cracks at 5000 again this year. Mead looked really good, but doesn't he usually run his best marks early? Maybe this year is different. I can see Derrick potentially sneaking under 13:00 in a race that goes at 12:55 pace from the gun.

I predict Evan will throw down a Jager Bomb or two this year!!

5000 in 12:54-56

3K SC in 7:59-8:01

This all makes good sense. I would add that True stated in his interview after his race at Stanford that his goal is to break 13:00 at Pre Classic (coming up soonish, May 30-31). It's no easy feat, but he has a good chance if the pacing and weather are aligned, and he's healthy. If not, then probably this summer.

I've discussed elsewhere that Rupp's mile and 3000 PRs, along with the fact that his best even is the 10,000, indicates he's theoretically capable of even a 12:45. Again, just the matter of getting in the right race at the right time. I'm sure he'd love to get a sub-12:50 under his belt.

The others also have decent chances this summer, but yeah, with Jager's main event being Steeple and Derrick the 10,000, that might reduce the number of attempts they make at 5000. The hope is that if one athlete falters, there is enough talent now that another might have a breakthrough.

man oh man, it was so discouraging to see the results of the men's 1500 and women's 3000 this weekend, so many more Africans running top times! Our best would be lucky to finish in the top 10 of a race like that!!!!...Lucky only three are allowed in Championship races! Just look at those times! Shannon Rowbury best all time of 831 would be around TEN PLACE! Only chance we have is a tactical race with the ability to finish really really fast! On the plus side if our top runners get in these types of races hopefully we will see some big PRs!

Look at the startlist of DL Shanghai:

http://www.diamondleague-shanghai.com/en/Live-StartlistsResults/Overview/5000m-Men/

12 of the 20 have PBs of 13:12 or slower. Shanghai is a long way to travel, so I understand why Americans prefer to wait for the next one at Eugene. I hope this means we'll be able to load up the 5000 with most of the runners mentioned in this thread. Not sure how it works in getting invited to DL events.

Did the OP answer the question he posed? I'm guessing 3 this year.

george oscar bluth wrote:

Did the OP answer the question he posed? I'm guessing 3 this year.

I know, so many words. Yes, I went out on a limb and said:

As long as enough American men get the opportunity to race enough in Europe, I'd predict about five Americans breaking 13:00, and both Rupp and Lagat likely breaking the American Record.

It's an optimistic prediction, one that could fall apart if things starts going wrong, but we'll see. I'm sure the athletes want it. And in a non-championship year, the sport needs it badly.

Lagat, Rupp, Jager, and True. Centrowitz will get close.

Any reasons for the seeming lack of faith in Mead and Lomong?

Fastnbulbous wrote:

Any reasons for the seeming lack of faith in Mead and Lomong?

I overlooked Lomong, if he runs 3 or 4 5000's this summer he should go under 13:00 at a minimum. I don't think he'll be contending to win any races that are under 12:55 but he should be able to get under 13:00.

For me Mead needs to show the consistency. He certainly pops a great mark every now and again and looks to be in great shape now, but has yet to prove he can race big against the big boys in Europe. One to watch for sure.

I believe the American record is going to end up under 12:50 this summer and perhaps Lagats 7:29 if the right 3000 lines up.

include them as well.

yyy wrote:

Lagat, Rupp, Jager, and True. Centrowitz will get close.

13:20 was not bad for Centro in his maybe 2nd 5000? I'm just wondering if he'll actually race another one this season. He has hinted at going after the 1500 AR, which I would think would mean staying more speed focussed and probably getting in an 800, maybe a 3000 if he can. Who knows.

I'm wondering where these 5000's will occur outside of PRE. Looking forward on the diamond league website I didn't notice any as of yet.