I posted this in the 'conspiracy' thread, but wanted to see if I could get some knowledgeable discussion on it specifically.
Doesn't seem like anyone has really compared the splits of all the relevant runners, so I wanted to contribute what I found on the Boston Marathon Results website. Feel free to check there yourself and please correct me if I've made a mistake on the stats.
Here is a summary of the race:
Everyone is together at 10k in 30:29
In the next 5k, Meb and Boit pick up 10seconds on the field by running a 15:18.
In the next 5k (that is, 15k - 20k), Meb gains an additional 22sec on the field by running another 15:18 - this means the field ran only a 15:40 on this segment, shortly after seeing Meb get away. (!)
20k-25k Meb runs 14:55 and gets another 19-26sec on the field.
25k-30k Meb runs 15:10 and gets another 23-30 sec.
30k-35k - Chebet closes 30sec on Meb this 5k, running 14:57 to Meb's 15:27
35k-40k - Chebet runs a blistering 14:29, 4:40 pace, to reduce Meb's lead 8seconds.
40k to finish. Meb runs 5:00 pace this segment, while Chebet slows to 5:01 pace.
The main concern to me in these statistics is from 15k to 20k. I am not familiar with the terrain in this segment, but was under the impression it was downhill. It therefore suprises me greatly that an elite field ran only a 15:40, almost "purposely" letting Meb get out of sight (That is a pro-conspiracy interpretation).
Also worthy of note is Chebet's heroic closing efforts that seemed to end once he approached Meb - however, I think most can agree it is grasping at straws to include this as evidence of some fixing of the race. It is not a huge surprise that he could not close well after his 14:29 effort in closing the gap.
Thoughts?
Read more:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5750594&page=8#ixzz2zl5pgDS1
The main thing I think worth discussing is that after Meb and Boit got away with a 10second lead, the elite field slowed to a 15:40 from 15k to 20k. As far as I know this is a downhill portion of the course.
So, the question is how does this compare to past Boston Marathons? It does seem unusual for such an elite field to run a 5:01 downhill 5k, just after seeing someone make a slight break. Anyways if anyone has the time or knowledge to compare this stat with other editions of the race I think it might contribute to a non-biased understanding of what happened this year at Boston.