Couple quick thoughts...
- Yes, "good deal" for Nike (almost regardless of long-term parameter assumptions), but recall that sponsoring USATF is essentially an act of goodwill/charity for Nike, and probably even value-destroying for Nike's equity regardless of how aggressively you assume a "halo effect" for their brand in consumers' minds.
- Escalators / adjustments based on measurable performance indicators might be in place, and that could change the math.
- If the "In-kind" support (uniforms etc.) is $3-4 million a year (I'm just making up a number and trying to aim high), that's $13-17 mn per year of purely financial support. Not having studfied any USATF financial statements recently, if I recall right, that would be something like 90% of USATF's annual operating budget. 3 observations here:
(1) Any additional sponsorships, if they come, are pure gravy.
(2) That would bring USATF off the cliff's edge annually, allowing more reources for more constructive development and less fretting over keeping the lights on, and
(3) If USATF was corrupt before, the extra loot loosens a constraint and the temptation increases.
- Tangential to that last point, there's a non-zero probability that USAT&F is dissolved before the contract expires. That would REALLY change the math.