rupp certified-bumby rage
MO FARAH NYC HALF PREDICTION THREAD 2/28/2014 6:49AM Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I believe that if Mo stayed on the track, he would've been way faster than Rupp's indoor times. Like WR (i) for the mile, two mile, and a damn quick 5k in the 12:50-12:53 range.

Since that's not the case, he ran a solid half in NYC in 2011, another one in early 2013, and against Bekele/Geb after the WC. Now that he is actually training for the marathon, I don't see why he couldn't run faster than his PR easily and (as a benchmark) Hall's AR. Has the speed, now has the endurance, why not.

59:00!!
fpole
RE: MO FARAH NYC HALF PREDICTION THREAD 2/28/2014 6:53AM - in reply to rupp certified-bumby rage Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
1:02:37
Jockey
RE: MO FARAH NYC HALF PREDICTION THREAD 2/28/2014 7:36AM - in reply to rupp certified-bumby rage Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
If he is training with the likes off Geoffrey Mutai and William kipsang. Like was posted some time ago if i remember correctly.
I think needs too easy go sub 60 min, in a well paced race with good weather.
If the conditions are good, he will need this kind off half marathon speed too even stay with the main pack in the marathon on London.
I predict 59:30 for him, because New York isn't the fastest course on earth. But i am giving him a great chance at running faster then the 59:43 off Ryan Hall.
Ralph Wiggum
RE: MO FARAH NYC HALF PREDICTION THREAD 2/28/2014 8:07AM - in reply to Jockey Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
With the winter we have had in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The weather conditions could be pretty harsh for a fast time.
NotAustin18
RE: MO FARAH NYC HALF PREDICTION THREAD 2/28/2014 8:11AM - in reply to rupp certified-bumby rage Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
In good weather on a faster course like RAK I think he'd run 585x. But for NYC half considering the slower course and the weather this time of year, I peg him at somewhere between 60:30 and 62:00 depending on the weather on the given day of the race.
Wow Unbelievable
RE: MO FARAH NYC HALF PREDICTION THREAD 2/28/2014 8:15AM - in reply to NotAustin18 Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I believe he ran 1:00:23 in NYC in 2011. The course has been changed, but I doubt they'd make it tougher. I'll predict 1:00:08.
erik
LRC web guy
RE: MO FARAH NYC HALF PREDICTION THREAD 2/28/2014 9:48AM - in reply to Wow Unbelievable Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
in 2012, a couple people dipped under 60 (Kirui and Merga, not Imane)

I'll give Farah credit for sub 60 if weather is good. 59:58
mako
RE: MO FARAH NYC HALF PREDICTION THREAD 2/28/2014 10:00AM - in reply to rupp certified-bumby rage Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Are you all serious? Do you know the times of the top marathon guys when they run a tune-up half-marathon few weeks before the marathon? It's never that fast, more like 61-62.
NYCRunner2
RE: MO FARAH NYC HALF PREDICTION THREAD 2/28/2014 10:01AM - in reply to erik Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
A couple of remarks:

- the course is net downhill and was changed twice since Mo ran here last in 2011 (to include the tunnel and part of Harlem)
- the Westside highway stretch is usually quite windy. Hard to predict this time of the year, could be head or tailwind. 2011 was tailwind.
Chris Wasnetsky
RE: MO FARAH NYC HALF PREDICTION THREAD 2/28/2014 10:27AM - in reply to mako Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

mako wrote:

Are you all serious? Do you know the times of the top marathon guys when they run a tune-up half-marathon few weeks before the marathon? It's never that fast, more like 61-62.


I agree. I think he will go at predicted marathon pace for London and pick it up at the end. I'd be surprised if he goes under 61.