What mile PR in high school, on average, will lead to a lifetime PR of sub-4 (in the mile?) Other qualifications (raw speed, aerobic capacity, etc.)?
What mile PR in high school, on average, will lead to a lifetime PR of sub-4 (in the mile?) Other qualifications (raw speed, aerobic capacity, etc.)?
About 1 in every 20 million people have actually broken 4. I don't think that there are hard minimum requirements, but you have to be very good and very lucky to break 4. Did Bannister go faster than 4:40 in high school?
Good luck with that. I think it would be an awesome set of data to look at - lifetime sub 4 PR and corresponding U19 PR for the few thousand or so people who've done it.
I guess it will probably average out to somewhere between 4:10 and 4:20 for older generations and between 4:05 and 4:10 for newer generations (with HS coaches getting better recently).
Here's one data point for you:
3:59
4:17 (1600)
Minimum 400 speed is probably :54 or so. Not sure how you'd measure aerobic capacity.
Brooks Launch wrote:
Good luck with that. I think it would be an awesome set of data to look at - lifetime sub 4 PR and corresponding U19 PR for the few thousand or so people who've done it.
I guess it will probably average out to somewhere between 4:10 and 4:20 for older generations and between 4:05 and 4:10 for newer generations (with HS coaches getting better recently).
Here's one data point for you:
3:59
4:17 (1600)
Minimum 400 speed is probably :54 or so. Not sure how you'd measure aerobic capacity.
54?? are you crazy? that's about what you need to break 2 in the 800. try like 50 ...
crete wrote:
54?? are you crazy? that's about what you need to break 2 in the 800. try like 50 ...
Nope. If you're an aerobic best you can do it with that speed. Ritz is probably like 53 / 3:57.
Not crazy. I could probably make a case for that claim.
HardLoper wrote:
crete wrote:54?? are you crazy? that's about what you need to break 2 in the 800. try like 50 ...
Nope. If you're an aerobic best you can do it with that speed. Ritz is probably like 53 / 3:57.
This cannot be accurate.
What we do know is that Ritz has run 12:56 for 5k. This is basically 62s flat per lap, 12.5 times.
So you suggest that in peak mile form he could only manage 59s per lap 4 times?
I'll buy the idea that Ritz is more "strength" opposed to "speed", however properly trained as a professional and no doubt Ritz is closer to 3:50 than he is to 4:00.
Professor Longhair wrote:
About 1 in every 20 million people have actually broken 4. I don't think that there are hard minimum requirements, but you have to be very good and very lucky to break 4. Did Bannister go faster than 4:40 in high school?
Over 100 billion people have walked this planet. 5000 people have gone sub 4?
Bannister ran 4:24.6 at the age of 18, on 90 minutes training er week.
dR Trollingwood wrote:
Over 100 billion people have walked this planet. 5000 people have gone sub 4?
Holy cow this statement is absurd.
oh please wrote:
I'll buy the idea that Ritz is more "strength" opposed to "speed", however properly trained as a professional and no doubt Ritz is closer to 3:50 than he is to 4:00.
no no no no no
A lot of potential sub-4 milers are running the 400m or playing soccer instead, so that's not even how it works.
how many have run it ... with some serious training?
oh please wrote:
HardLoper wrote:Nope. If you're an aerobic best you can do it with that speed. Ritz is probably like 53 / 3:57.
This cannot be accurate.
What we do know is that Ritz has run 12:56 for 5k. This is basically 62s flat per lap, 12.5 times.
So you suggest that in peak mile form he could only manage 59s per lap 4 times?
I'll buy the idea that Ritz is more "strength" opposed to "speed", however properly trained as a professional and no doubt Ritz is closer to 3:50 than he is to 4:00.
No I mean NOW he is probably more like 3:57 / 53.
To answer the question, something close to 4:30 1600m in HS.
Slower if injury problems or 400m focus in HS, or less than 15-20 miles/week in training. Something close to 5 flat off of zero training.
I would guess 98-99% who go sub 4 are sub 4:24 1600m in HS.
Something like 52 as a minimum 4x400 split capability.
Lenny Leonard wrote:
dR Trollingwood wrote:Over 100 billion people have walked this planet. 5000 people have gone sub 4?
Holy cow this statement is absurd.
By "this statement" do you mean the one you wrote?
The figure is closer to 1 in 100 million.
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/fire-in-the-mind/2013/08/11/how-many-people-ever-lived/#.UwAJXu69KSNhttp://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2002/HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspxhttp://trackandfieldnews.com/archive/worldS4.pdfSteve Scott proved you can go from 4:16 to 3:47 as long as transfusions are legal.
dsrunner wrote:
To answer the question, something close to 4:30 1600m in HS.
Slower if injury problems or 400m focus in HS, or less than 15-20 miles/week in training. Something close to 5 flat off of zero training.
I would guess 98-99% who go sub 4 are sub 4:24 1600m in HS.
Something like 52 as a minimum 4x400 split capability.
False. Jim Ryun was around 5:30 WITH training. There is no minimum time in order to eventually run sub 4. You either do or don't.
I think about 10 billion is the correct number.
There is no set time that you should run in high school to run a sub 4 . Don't let anyone tell you there is.