USA Olympic Marathon Team - 2016

Guys like Jason Hartman and Craig Leon

LDOPA

Talk about upsets all you want (I like the underdog too), but the 2016 US Olympic Marathon team will be Meb, Hall, and Ritz.

montee ball wrote:

Talk about upsets all you want (I like the underdog too), but the 2016 US Olympic Marathon team will be Meb, Hall, and Ritz.

Meb is getting old but still a contender. Ritz yes. Hall is pretty much done so I say DNS for Hall at the trials (if he actually runs a marathon to qualify)

Is there only one spot available?

Meb will be like 40 so no. Ryan hall has been spiraling downward since he did his little god coach me plan. Ritz will be there I believe but he's not that young either. Luke puskedra, Galen rupp, Chris Derrick always seemed like marathon guys to me. Ryan vail is easily sub 210 material and has been training like a marathoner since he set foot on campus. Someone is gonna surprise us I guarantee it.

What about Mo Trafeh? Does anyone know if he's running a fall marathon?

Ryan Hall is NOT done. Some of you guys on this board are soooooooo ridiculously stupid it's embarrassing.

Ryan ran 2:06:17 at the 2008 London Marathon, that was a legitimate 26.2 race, no tailwind to argue about.

I would LOVE to place a bet with one of you know-it-alls. Jason Hartmann has a pr almost 5 minutes slower than Hall. He's 32 years old, nothing wrong with that as Ryan is 31...but he's not finishing in front of Ryan at the trials.

Ryan ran 2:08:04 in the 2011 Chicago Marathon. I don't care about his no shows, the guy can run. How many Americans are capable of that and have come even remotely close?

Ryan Hall will make the 2016 Men's Olympic Marathon Team.

wild card trials picks (aside from flanagan, who is a lock)

1. rupp 2. derrick 3. leon

1. flanagan 2. bawcom 3. pritz

montee ball wrote:

Talk about upsets all you want (I like the underdog too), but the 2016 US Olympic Marathon team will be Meb, Hall, and Ritz.

People are always very good at predicting the recent past.

Most likely none of these three will make it. At most one will.

Chelanga? Rupp? Derrick? True? Puskedra?... The list of possible team members is pretty long and there is also a good chance that at least one will be someone that 'nobody' is currently thinking of.

Daniel Tapia has a shot.

I'd guess Rupp, Ritz, Hall. Hall is definitely not done.

"Some random sub-2:20 guy" is not going to make the team. It'll take at LEAST a sub 2-:13, even if things are terrible, and probably a sub-2:11.

It's amazing how weak the US is in the marathon. Ritz ran a bad race in Chicago yet will likely have the fastest time in the US in 2013. He also has to be the favorite for the 2016 Olympic team. Where is all the young talent? No Us runner other than the big 3 of Riz, Meb and Hall ahve broken 2:10 since in a very long time. The rest of the world is running under 2:05. I understand there are cultural and economic difference between the US and east africa but at this time our guys aren't even in the same league. Seems like the US runners have given up and stopped trying.

Graeme McDowell wrote:

No Us runner other than the big 3 of Riz, Meb and Hall ahve broken 2:10 since in a very long time.

Abdi broke 2:10 at the Olympic trial (Jan. 2012).

Raptured wrote:

I'd guess Rupp, Ritz, Hall. Hall is definitely not done.

Not saying it is impossible but I doubt either Hall or Ritz make it. It's another three years away and those two are definitely entering a phase in their careers when staying fit and healthy becomes more and more challenging.

I'd also add Vail to the list of strong possibilities.

So, here's my 'bet':

Zero come from this list:

Hall, Ritz, Meb

Two (or three) come from this list:

Chelanga, Rupp, Derrick, Puskedra, Lowe, Trafeh, True, Bumbalough, Mead, Braun, Fernandez

I'll try to remember to bump this thread now and then since I now have a prediction on the line.

When will Chelanga be a citizen? Puskedra could be a beast at the 'thon. German, I don't see how he can train for that distance. But you never know. Could be easier on his frame than 5k training, and didn't he jog a 1:09 in high school?

If we look at the history of American Marathoning, only 1 "favorite" will make the team. The other 2 spots will be taken by the "challenger" group.

I expect the favorites in 2016 to be Ritz, Rupp, and Hall.

Only one of those guys will make the team. The Challenger group will be Ryan Vail, Meb Keflezighi, and 3-4 solid 2:12-2:14 guys. Two from this group will make it.

Mark my words...

Here is an example, just what I'm saying, http://www.marathonguide.com/news/exclusives/usamenolympictrials_2007/MensOlympicTrialsMarathonFavoritesPreview.cfm