Ghost of Igloi wrote:
"The market is way overpriced.
That's why we've made money over the past 4 years, while you've sat there like a dumbo singing your song of doom and gloom.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
"The market is way overpriced.
That's why we've made money over the past 4 years, while you've sat there like a dumbo singing your song of doom and gloom.
Correction: two years. Hope you hold on to your money.
"The market is way overpriced."
Relative to what?
Equity pricing is not reducible to future earning stream, it also reflects risk, which perception reflects zeitgeist, which is driven by a great many factors, often in a feedback loop.
These are all concepts that appear to elude the overblown Shiller.
"It's not as intellectual as people would think" Correction: it's more complicated than Shiller can understand, or accept.
He sounded like a moron in this piece.
With respect Igy, that's just a collection of tired cliches from a bygone era.
Although I do sincerely hope that there is a massive correction, so that I can BTMFD.
Maserati wrote:
With respect Igy, that's just a collection of tired cliches from a bygone era.
Although I do sincerely hope that there is a massive correction, so that I can BTMFD.
Respectfully, as well, just reinforces my view.
From the same Bloomberg piece:
"For Hersh Shefrin, a finance professor at Santa Clara University and author of a 2007 book on the role of psychology in markets, the rally is just another example of investors’ remarkable penchant for tunnel vision. Shefrin has a favorite analogy to illustrate his point: the great tulip-mania of 17th century Holland.
Even the most casual students of financial history are familiar with the frenzy, during which a rare tulip bulb was worth enough money to buy a mansion. What often gets overlooked, though, is that the mania happened during an outbreak of bubonic plague.
“People were dying left and right,†Shefrin says. “So here you have financial markets sending signals completely at odds with the social mood of the time, with the degree of fear at the time.â€'
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Correction: two years. Hope you hold on to your money.
To suggest people get out of the market today may prove to be good advice.
But, justify suggesting over the past 2 years that being in the market has been a mistake.
Correction: I never have said get out of the market. I have said stocks and bonds are overvalued and people should adjust their portfolio to risk preference and cash flow time horizon.
This from the guy who routinely dismisses the intelligence of others here?
Oh, the irony!
Your overused cliché is your intelligence marker.
Irony Mann wrote:
This from the guy who routinely dismisses the intelligence of others here?
Oh, the irony!
He's a snake oil salesman.
But Bob Pisani, Jim Cramer and J.K. Kinahan are your Gods.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Cash is King.
From 2 years ago.
This guy is a joke. Along with a liar.
Cash is still King, especially today. Money market going up, while stock are going down.Liar, um funny coming from you.
mellon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Cash is King.
From 2 years ago.
This guy is a joke. Along with a liar.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Cash is still King, especially today. Money market going up, while stock are going down.
Liar, um funny coming from you.
mellon wrote:From 2 years ago.
This guy is a joke. Along with a liar.
I'm sure your cash has made you and your clients a lot of money over the past (2) years.
What Shefrin is quoted as saying is utterly ridiculous.
"So here you have financial markets sending signals completely at odds with the social mood of the time, with the degree of fear at the time.â€
Really? Bullcrap.
US financial markets are up, just like US consumer confidence, which just hit a 15-year high.
NOT TO MENTION that there has always been great debate as to whether or not there actually was a tulip bubble, and if so, just exactly how it looked.
Shefrin. I neither know the guy personally, but what he apparently said is moronic on its face.
"DON'T know the guy personally"
bad edit
Stocks are going down? Maybe for day traders, but not for the rest of us.
Maserati,
OK, I think your opinion represents the consensus view, for the most part.
However, stock market performance, consumer confidence and peak employment are all lagging economic indicators.
Igy
In other words, when things are high, they're going to eventually go down. Please tell us something we don't already know, Chicken Little.
Helloooooo? wrote:
In other words, when things are high, they're going to eventually go down. Please tell us something we don't already know, Chicken Little.
Unfortunately, this maybe Helloooooo?'s future.
When the Bear Market comes, it starts with a 10% decline, most here will be waiting for the bounce. They will breathe a sigh of relief on the first bounce, thinking it will be like August/September 2015 or January/February 2016. The following decline will be real Bear Market territory. Down 30%, many will feel it is too late to sell. Here is the punch line. Lastly, another notch lower, if we are lucky is stops down 50%, this thread will be quiet. In disgust, the Down Goes the Dow passive investors hit the sell button.