S&P targets? I thought we were discussing bullish sentiment. Why did you change the subject?
As for being a troll, your boy Trump is the biggest internet troll.
S&P targets? I thought we were discussing bullish sentiment. Why did you change the subject?
As for being a troll, your boy Trump is the biggest internet troll.
Huh?
U.S. stock futures on Tuesday pointed to little change at the open, as analysts argued the post-election rally has run its course.
Investors are due to get a dose of Federal Reserve speeches and economic reports, including a reading on U.S. GDP.
S&P 500 futures edged up by 4.45 points, or 0.2%, to 2,205.25, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures inched higher by 29 points, or 0.2%, to 19,109. Nasdaq-100 futures tacked on 9.50 points, or 0.2%, to 4,870.50.
On Monday, the S&P 500 and Dow closed lower by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, as each gauge ended a four-session advance into record territory. The S&P and Dow are on track for monthly gains of 3.6% and 5.3%, respectively, as of Monday's close.
In the past few weeks, repositioning for a Republican-controlled Washington sparked "big moves in the markets that are now starting to fade," said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, in a note. "By last week, it was getting clear that traders had gotten carried away and become overly complacent, but the markets held up all the same."
But now "reality has started to set back in, and traders have started to recognize that there are still a lot of short and long-term risks out there, and a lot of big events that could move the markets," Cieszynski added.
One political risk is the Italian referendum on Sunday. While the ballot is on proposed constitutional reforms, it is generally being seen in the country as a vote of confidence in Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, with the risk that a victory for "no" will lead to his resignation and the dissolution of Italy's government.
couple of positive econ numbers out today -
corporate profits are up 5.2% y/y and at very near record levels
and GDP grew a solid 3.2% q/q....but still less than 2% y/y
finally, same store sales took a rare jump - up 2.2%. best numbers in a year
if politicians don't f this up, we should be good to go
agip,
Ran six days in a row last week. New record for latest older version of me.
Hope your running is progressing.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
Ran six days in a row last week. New record for latest older version of me.
Hope your running is progressing.
Igy
that's great news - sounds like what you are doing is working. So good to make running an irreplaceable part of the day. It all just makes more sense that way.
I've had a super couple of weeks - it all came together. Ran a 5-year PR on the local hilly XC course, then last week ran just 5 seconds off my 40+ PB over five miles. So all good with me runningwise - sort of floating on air. Except for the 4 small dings I am managing of course.
I have one more road race - mid-December - then I'll aim for a late January 5000 on the track. So the meat of the season is over, but I'll carry it on into the winter.
agip,
Good job. Nice progression for your new age group.
A year ago I was running two days a week, and spinning two days a week.
I was on the track at 5:30 am this morning for a tempo ladder. Getting pretty brisk here in the am, probably in the low 30s. Six miles worth of work, warmed up after about two miles. Ran hill reps on Saturday, the other days just easy and strides.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
Ran six days in a row last week. New record for latest older version of me.
Hope your running is progressing.
Igy
Forget about his running, why didn't you thank him for the enlightening positive information he sent you?
mellon,
Nice. How is your running by the way?
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
mellon,
Nice. How is your running by the way?
Igy
Not quite as good as my investments, but not bad.
mellon,
Ha ha. Mine would be a flip of your answer.
Have a good day.
Igy
this is interesting:
Multi-year high in consumer confidence
but near multi-year lows in investor confidence.
that might suggest that rather than an investment bubble...in fact investors are the pessimistic ones, behind the times. And therefore more money will come into the market.
today's GDP and retail sales numbers might support that.
No surprise there given that you've missed an impressive bull market.
Lemons,
To say it is a "impressive bull market" misses underlying weakness in a broad selection of sectors or assets. Equity income portfolios and diversified portfolios with alternatives, bonds and international investments have been hit hard since the election. So much for the myth of TINA.
The following sectors and indexes are well off their 52 week high:
Utilities -9.80%
Telecom -9.69%
REITs -13.76%
Consumer Staples -8.58%
Health Care -9.56%
MSCI EFAE ETF -7.89%
MSCI Emerging Market ETF -7.63%
Alerian MLP Index -9.58%
iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF -4.17%
Igy
The bull market is going on 8 years! 52-week highs don't mean much in this case.
go,
Sure.
I guess the next question is how much longer does it last? This is especially important since the excuse for slow GDP growth and market support has been the "Fed has your back." Well with the 10 Year Treasury yield 1% higher since July, is the Fed still the only game in town? Or do Trump policy initiatives justify the move?
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
go,
Sure.
I guess the next question is how much longer does it last?
That's always the question. If you have any specific insight into a rough date, I'd love to hear it.
go,
It won't matter what the date is. The current overvalued market insures 40-55% market drop over the completion of the full cycle. If so inclined, one should examine risk exposure in advance of any market move. If not so inclined, realize that the probability of such a loss is not even a worse case scenario.
Igy
of course it matters what the date is. That's what determines if you win or lose.
and a 40-50% drop is not "insured"
go,
The point is, since this is the second longest Bull Market the risk is to the downside. So you need to weigh the factors supporting your views. Earnings peaked September 2014. There have been two declines greater than 12% in the interim. The market has only made marginal highs, while certain sectors and stocks have struggled. Nothing is insured, the drop could be 80%. The NASDAQ dropped 89% from the high during the bursting of the Tech Bubble. The Financial Services Index fell over 87% from June of 2007 to March of 2009. The NASDAQ Composite is fractionally higher that the March of 2000 high. The Nikkei remains below the high it reached decades ago.
Igy