Bo,
No stranger than when the market is up someone comments here "life is good."
Buyers and sellers are matched daily.
Igy
Bo,
No stranger than when the market is up someone comments here "life is good."
Buyers and sellers are matched daily.
Igy
MarketWatching
"The chances of a Fed move at the next meeting now stand at a heady 12%, having been just 4% on Monday," said Igy. "While on an absolute basis this might not be much, in financial markets this type of nonsense fuels speculation on either side of a bet. While most market participants ignore the fact that corporate earnings continue to decline," he said in a note.
This time Goldman is following coach d's lead:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/18/forget-equities-goldman-sachs-says-put-your-money-in-credit.html
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
This time Goldman is following coach d's lead:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/18/forget-equities-goldman-sachs-says-put-your-money-in-credit.html
um, where is that wild bullishness om the street, Igy?
only econ today is not good...housing market continues to cool.
mortgage apps minus 6% w/w - that is the worst reading of the year.
agip,
Maybe my hearing is bad, but I have CNBC on all day long and the tone is decidedly Bullish. I just heard a strategist from JPM espousing on the earnings rebound into year-end. That is the mantra of the Street, while the proof of that rebound remains fleeting at best.
Igy
Bo,
No stranger than when the market is up someone comments here "life is good."
Buyers and sellers are matched daily.
Igy
It's much stranger actually.
Bo,
Perhaps because you are not sophisticated enough to get it.
Igy
I can think of another reason, but unlike you I'll take the high road. Goodbye.
Bo,
So you understand my response: First, my view is the market has become a vehicle for speculation and is divorced from fundamentals. Second, individuals that hold a Bearish view are only acting on their convictions. Third, someone always holds a security until that security is retired, so Bullish versus Bearish opinions on a stock or the market should reflect less emotion; that is not how Bearish views are received.
Igy
well well well...looks like the boys and girls at the Fed have some backbone after all
I think raising rates is the right move, although no on knows anything about macroeconomics.
They caused a brief hiccup in the market, but cooler heads are prevailing.
Market Watching
"The chances of a Fed move at the next meeting now stand at a heady 60%, having been just 4% on Monday," said Igy. "While on an absolute basis this might be a bunch, in financial markets this type of nonsense fuels speculation on either side of a bet. While most market participants ignore the fact that corporate earnings continue to decline," he said in a note.
Igy,
Why are you so dovish? The futures traders (30-day Fed Funds Futures) TODAY have priced in not 60% but virtually 100% chance of: A hike in June; another hike BEFORE December; AND yet another hike before March-April.
I just bought the April 2017 30 day Fed Funds contract, thinking this is seriously overdone, even if the FED does hike in June (which I doubt).
If you think this is great for the market or macroeconomics, read up on the "two steps and a stumble" rule and what happened to real estate in the summer of 2005 after the FED hiked multiple times in the second half of 2004. This was the beginning of the 2008 crash (and, yes, it did take 4 years).
Now, think about all that 0.25% interest borrowing to buy back stock.
coach d,
I am skeptical of a Fed move in June. I believe the Fed is afraid to normalize, although I think it is warranted to curb what I consider excessive valuations.
Igy
U.S. stock futures edged lower Thursday, as analysts blamed the dip on an interest-rate rise from the Federal Reserve looking more likely. But index futures were just barely in the red, helped by Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc. jumping premarket after their earnings reports. Investors are also waiting for fresh Fed signals due this morning, and new data on manufacturing and jobless claims.
Thursday's moves come after the S&P 500 and Dow both closed roughly flat in the prior session, erasing earlier gains following minutes from the Fed's latest meeting. The minutes indicated that most policy makers are ready to lift rates as early as June.
Analysts are questioning the central bank's hawkish posture, given doubts about the U.S. economy's strength. Adding to those doubts, ratings agency Moody's on Thursday cut its 2016 forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2%, down from 2.3%. "For investors, it is confirmation that the ratings agency does not have as much confidence in the U.S. economy as perhaps the Fed members had envisaged," said Naeem Aslam, ThinkForex's chief market analyst, in a note.
Market Watching
Analysts are questioning the central bank's hawkish posture, given the fact the higher interest rates will curb the churning of high frequency traders. Adding to those doubts, ratings agency Moody's on Thursday cut its 2016 forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2%, down from 2.3%. "For investors, it is confirmation that the ratings agency are in on the game, even though Fed members have come to the realization that speculation in equities has gone too far," said Igy, in a note
Us stocks less than one percent above the 200 day moving average...will this be yet another steep plunge and recovery? Third in a year?
Are traders playing chicken with the fed, betting that if the market gets all ruffled at the thought of raising rates then the Fed won't in fact raise rates?
econ today:
finally some good news, albeit mixed with the bad.
Leading indicators shot up - they have been climbing since December in a strong fashion. This is why stocks have been strong I suppose - companies seem to be looking better down the road than they are now.
Because now is meh.
jobless claims: 4 wk avge in range but climbing a little. Labor has been a strength but it seems to be cooling. Labor shortage?
phily fed: shows slight contraction after some strong months. volatile
chicago fed: 3 month moving average at low end of range
The Fed with $4.4 Trillion debt on their balance sheet is in a box. If interest rates go up so does the debt servicing cost. More than just a box, a Pandora's Box of their own creation. In the end, when the end comes, will be messy.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The Fed with $4.4 Trillion debt on their balance sheet is in a box. If interest rates go up so does the debt servicing cost. More than just a box, a Pandora's Box of their own creation. In the end, when the end comes, will be messy.
Igy
yes but
1) the fed only controls one very short term interest rate. anything other than that is market driven. And the market has determined that interest rates should be very very low right now. Although QE has mucked with that a small amount.
2) the fed's mandate is inflation and jobs, not the federal budget.
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