Down goes the Dow

My glass is half full. Yours is half empty.

Big,

No, my glasses are prescription and yours are rose colored.

Igy

You need a new prescription. I wrote "glass", not "glasses".

Big,

No, I wrote glasses on purpose as a twist to your comment.

It is a common criticism of the skeptical to counter with a "faith conquers all" belief, but that is not always true.

Good luck with your trades. I wish you well and I am not your enemy.

Igy

No worries. Be well.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Cankies,

I guess you are not very observant, cash has outperformed seven of the nine asset classes I listed over the past year. So you may want to do some more studying before you make any criticisms of my investment recommendations.

Igy

You may want to observe some other time frames. Start with the last 3 months.

Cankies,

How about the last three days?

Igy

econ today:

the jobs number, which is all over the news. job creation down due to government and retail...wages up...

as a political aside, I can't believe trump is saying we should consider defaulting on the federal debt. this guy is so dangerous.

agip wrote:

econ today:

the jobs number, which is all over the news. job creation down due to government and retail...wages up...

News keep getting worse the last few weeks:

trade down

jobs down

growth down

profits down

Only the stock market hasn't really corrected much.

I think we will see another 8-10% correction before things will improve.

Government "jobs" are a net negative on the GDP. They could add wealth if they actually did anything worthwhile in an economically-viable fashion, but they don't, because it's a monopoly that has no budget, and that spends other people's money, and the public-sector-union-hack tail is wagging the government dog.

Remember, this "jobs" number is complete b.s.. It's irrelevant. Its only meaning is as an indicator as to Fed and gov't sentiment. This time IMO it's a signal that there is a lack of unity in the FOMC regarding interest rates.

Same with all the other "down" indicators that are commonly used and published. You want to really dig, look into the BLS, the St. Louis Fed, and other sources.

Maserati wrote:

Government "jobs" are a net negative on the GDP. They could add wealth if they actually did anything worthwhile in an economically-viable fashion, but they don't, because it's a monopoly that has no budget, and that spends other people's money, and the public-sector-union-hack tail is wagging the government dog.

Remember, this "jobs" number is complete b.s.. It's irrelevant. Its only meaning is as an indicator as to Fed and gov't sentiment. This time IMO it's a signal that there is a lack of unity in the FOMC regarding interest rates.

Same with all the other "down" indicators that are commonly used and published. You want to really dig, look into the BLS, the St. Louis Fed, and other sources.

yeah, those teachers do nothing economically viable. Useless. Should fire the lot of 'em.

The health workers too. This is great fun. Maybe fire the cops and firemen too.

Just thinking aloud.

agip,

AAPL just broke the $92.00 low from August. It will be interesting to watch the trading on this stock and the market reaction.

Igy

Maserati wrote:

Remember, this "jobs" number is complete b.s.. It's irrelevant. Its only meaning is as an indicator as to Fed and gov't sentiment. This time IMO it's a signal that there is a lack of unity in the FOMC regarding interest rates.

Hmmmmm....a number that is "complete b.s." and "irrelevant", but you still use it as an indicator. Genius.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

AAPL just broke the $92.00 low from August. It will be interesting to watch the trading on this stock and the market reaction.

Igy

I don't think Apple is a market leading stock...it's its own island.

I think they have to fix themselves up like MSFT did, with recurring revenues and not having to sell new gadgets. I pay $9 a month to microsoft and probably always will. Twice I've bought iPhones - I've paid $800 each time, but they have to make the sale each time and I'd be glad to go to a different company.

I think for now Apple seems to have run out of ideas for new gadgets...so i think they will buy some company that has recurring revenues.

Q1 2016 Earnings Report (87.9% of companies reported)

157 of 438 beat As Reported (GAAP)

317 beat, 91 missed, and 30 met Operating Earnings (Non-GAAP)

S&P Comments: share buybacks "adding at least a 4% tailwinds to their current EPS." "Second half estimates mostly hold, predicting a new operating record (the sun will come out tomorrow-just don't bet your bottom dollar."

GAAP quarter estimates have come down as earnings have come out: $24.10 (4/15), $23.34 (4/21), $22.76 (4/28), and $22.28 (5/6). Last Twelve Months same time periods: $88.82, $88.06, $87.48, and $87.00.

Yet Wall Street still estimates GAAP earnings to end the year at $106.82, which would require quarter results of $26.41, $28.46 and $29.47. Highest quarterly GAAP earnings ever was 9/30/2014 at $27.47. Estimated current GAAP PE 23.68, non-GAAP 20.79, highest since 12/31/2009.

Igy

agip,

I agree, but you have to admit when we said anything negative about Apple we received plenty of "how could you."

Going for another 8 mile trail run at 7:00 am Saturday with my buds. The course I am running is a little easier than last week, so hoping for a time closer to 9:00 a mile average. I am going to take a walk with the wife after work and rest the legs.

Have a good weekend.

Igy

agip wrote:

I don't think Apple is a market leading stock...it's its own island.

I think they have to fix themselves up like MSFT did, with recurring revenues and not having to sell new gadgets.

They did that in the very beginning with AT&T. Basically they sold them the iPhone and then got another % of the customers invoice each month. It lasted throughout the duration of the time when iPhone was exclusive to AT&T.

Comparison with MSFT isn't really fair - they are a Software company - Apple is a hardware company that gives away Software for free.

The services they offer (Apple Music and iCloud) are overpriced yet lead to very low margins due to a saturated market. Not sure how they could change that.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Cankies,

How about the last three days?

Igy

So you see my point. You can cherry pick a time frame to make a point and I can pick another to make the opposite point. There are always opportunities to make or lose money. You may be doing your clients a disservice.

Cankies,

Over a hundred years of market history supports my view. I will go with data as listed in my post on Q1 2016 earnings. You are welcome to your view although it is not supported by facts.

Igy