But the expectations precede the earnings report, so "steer(ing) expectations to the EPS numbers" makes no sense.
But the expectations precede the earnings report, so "steer(ing) expectations to the EPS numbers" makes no sense.
Analyst,
OK then, steer EPS to expectations.
Igy
Why wouldn't they steer them to BEAT expectations?
l'econ
auto sales quite strong and better than expected
Economic confidence index worsened and quite negative
same store sales up 0.8% -that's weak but about the same as prior weeks
Analyst,
I agree that there is plenty of low balling. The original question was about composition. I will leave it to you and coach d on motivations.
I would be more concerned about how the lowered EPS and sales expectations are being missed. The trend is decidedly down, and Wall Street numbers for year end are more fantasy than reality.
Igy
12 Month Asset Returns - April 2016:
Dow Jones +2.23%
S&P 500 +1.21%
S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index -2.21%
NASDAQ Composite -3.36%
Russell 2000 -7.32%
MSCI EAFE -11.74%
MSCI ACWI -7.55%
MSCI World Index-Developed Markets -6.05%
MSCI Emerging Markets -19.81%
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Wall Street numbers for year end are more fantasy than reality.
Igy
I presume you mean fantasy on the low end since you said Wall Street gets their projections from the companies themselves and they would be inclined to lowball expectations.
Analyst.
No. Wall Street forward one year operating estimated for the S&P 500 is $121.36 or 21.8% higher than where the market is tracking today. On 3/31/2015 the estimated forward operating earnings for the S&P 500 was $135.03
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Analyst,
The trend is decidedly down, and Wall Street numbers for year end are more fantasy than reality.
Igy
I keep saying variants of this...but if the market is solid even in the face of declining earnings...what do you think is going to happen when earnings start rising again?
Seems to me igy you have been right on the facts but wrong on the action plan.
agip,
Perhaps, but my view is the decline in earnings have just begun. I do not buy that earnings decline was isolated to energy. You see that in the numbers coming from technology and financials. Just wait until you see earnings decline in advertising dependent FB and GOOG.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
Perhaps, but my view is the decline in earnings have just begun. I do not buy that earnings decline was isolated to energy. You see that in the numbers coming from technology and financials. Just wait until you see earnings decline in advertising dependent FB and GOOG.
Igy
well keep in mind oil has risen something like 70% from its lows and the dollar has been falling...these will juice earnings now instead of being a drag previously.
and of course to be fair, I recognize that the market is in fact down or flat from when you became bearish.
agip,
I am open to the fact that I can be wrong, but that is not what I see from the data. Furthermore, I see central banks painted into a corner. So the balance of risk in my view is to the downside.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Perhaps, but my view is the decline in earnings have just begun.
Igy
You said on the previous page that they had been in decline for 18 months. You are very hard to understand.
Analyst,
OK, the earnings decline that began 18 months ago is accelerating.
Igy
Analyst,
Here is the data for Last Twelve Months S&P 500 GAAP earnings by quarter from the peak:
9/30/2014 $105.96
12/31/2014 $102.31
3/31/2015 $99.25
6/30/2015 $94.91
9/30/2015 $90.66
12/31/2015 $86.53
Igy
Ok, but didn't I read recently that the majority of the current earnings reports are beating estimates?
Analyst,
As discussed earlier the bar has been lowered, that said here are the numbers as of Friday for Q1 2016:
Q1 2016 S&P 500 Earnings with 72.5% Reported (4/29/2016)
121 of 312 beat GAAP Earnings or 39%
228 of 311 beat non-GAAP Earnings 73%
177 of 310 beat on sales 57%
Igy
They beat their earnings? Don't you mean they beat the estimates? And doesn't that show the estimates were off? Do these analysts actually make a living offering bogus numbers?
Analyst,
Referred to in the industry as an "earnings beat." Earnings consistency declines as the economic environment deteriorates. Analyst are subject to their own biases. The investment industry thrives with a positive as opposed to negative narrative.
Igy
"Earnings beat" makes sense, but before you wrote "beat earnings". They don't seem to be the same thing. This is very confusing. What happened to coach d?
RIP: D3 All-American Frank Csorba - who ran 13:56 in March - dead
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2024 College Track & Field Open Coaching Positions Discussion
adizero Road to Records with Yomif Kejelcha, Agnes Ngetich, Hobbs Kessler & many more is Saturday