Dancing on the edge of a live volcano:
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/simple-janet-jabbering-on-the-edge-of-a-live-volcano/
Igy
Dancing on the edge of a live volcano:
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/simple-janet-jabbering-on-the-edge-of-a-live-volcano/
Igy
Igy, are you on board with Stockman's S&P 1300 prediction by the end of 2016? Yes or no.
POTO,
The last time S&P 500 earnings were this low the index was trading at 1,440. I would say it depends if earnings continue to deteriorate. The last two cycles went from 1,500 to 775 and 1,575 to 666, therefore a range of 2,134 to 1,300 would not be extreme.
For the pure fun of it....
....the answer is.....
YES
Igy
Misery loves company. I give you credit for standing by your man though.
it really is amazing how many words M can write without saying anything.
seriously - read it again and then try to summarize what he is saying here. Sort of a lrc parlor game.
Well to be fair, he is very good at telling us how much smarter he is than the rest of us. Of course unlike others like coach d, he hasn't backed that up with anything concrete.
POTO,
As I have said before I like David Stockman's compilation of articles many of which you would have to have a subscription to the source to read. He also does a good job at times of summarizing the Bearish market view. I believe John Hussman has the most academically sound research supporting the Bearish view, and as outlined in his most recent weekly commentary there is substantial risk to the current equity market:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160411.htm
It is interesting the passion expressed by the Bulls in the face of deteriorating fundamentals ( valuation, earnings, economic). One becomes a heretic if expressing anything other than "it is a buying opportunity."
I imagine when the bad times come there will be little cheering at a valuation bottom and much silence on this thread.
Igy
I'm not sure your depiction of "the Bulls" is accurate. I certainly haven't witnessed the kind of passion of which you speak.
adhd agip just doesn't have the insight or the attention span required. Remember, this is the guy of w/w, whose lack of discipline leads to a lack of understanding.
And, quite rightly, nobody cares about poto.
Coach d talks big, but he's a follower, a jackal, picking up the scraps. He can make a good living, but is never insightful, original, or a leader.
But I do wish everybody well, regardless.
Why don't we switch the discussion to one focusing on economic assumptions? Economics still matters in the central bank era, right? Why don't we get together and fry Krugman, instead of each other?
Still nothing concrete. No surprise...the chamber has been empty all along.
POTO,
Perhaps my characterization of the Bull perspective is a reflection of my experience in the industry. There is a desire among market participants to ignore data to spin the positive narrative. I certainly have seen some of that here, in fact even you said to me that "misery loves company." That comment certainly reflects a certain degree of emotion on your part.
Igy
That comment was a reflection of the pessimism you share with those like Stockman. I'm not nearly as pessimistic as you are, but I'm not bullish either. I'm just a realist.
POTO,
Agreed, but I don't think I am a pessimist, and I think I am a realist. Perhaps you are a realist with an optimistic slant, and I am a realist with a pessimistic bias.
Igy
Maserati wrote:
Why don't we switch the discussion to one focusing on economic assumptions? Economics still matters in the central bank era, right? Why don't we get together and fry Krugman, instead of each other?
it seems to me the main question is what effect low and negative interest rates are having on the world economy. Certainly low rates area factor, but is it 25%? 50% 75%?
Who knows.
But as Igy has pointed out, it is worthy of note that stocks have gone nowhere since QE stopped.
But that is the short term worry - the longer term worry is of course the ocean of sovereign debt around the world. Right now it is being soaked up with zero stress because of the vast and increasing wealth of the world, but that can change. Then what.
Interesting article discussing much of today's postings:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3962935-pro-cyclical-monetary-policy-dormant-bear
Igy
well my first argument with that piece is that it says that corporate profits have not been great, therefore the bull market is questionable.
But on the contrary, until the great oil collapse last year corporate profits were hitting all time records. The private sector has been doing very, very well.
although as Igy has been pointing out, defining profits has become absurdly difficult and misleading b/c of the pro forma issues.
the bet in US equity markets is that profits will rebound sharply as oil companies and materials companies finish their recession.
agip,
But will the gains in energy and materials be offset by financials and discretionary?
I went 10 miles in the foothills Saturday and I am planning another seven miles today.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
But will the gains in energy and materials be offset by financials and discretionary?
I went 10 miles in the foothills Saturday and I am planning another seven miles today.
Igy
well the market thinks not. And the dollar has been falling, which will help the multinationals.
Sounds great with the running - everything holding together?
I had the second of my 3 or 4 spring races...had an off day. I had hoped to run around 20 seconds faster for 10k but just didn't have it on the day.
And I got beat by two guys in my age group, which hurts. I was 7th in a field of around 2000 but half the guys in front of me were over 40. Fluke.
So I'll put my head down, get more miles in and aim for a fast 5k in 3 weeks.
agip,
I have had plenty of similar racing days over the years. My experience has been it often leads to a breakthrough.
Holding up fairly well. Last week was a little tough primarily because of yard work at the house. I also probably ran a little too hard on the AlterG. Tuesday I ran 5 x 1,000m 3:45 on the AlterG at 88% of body weight . The speed left my calves a little sore. So this week I am going to cut off one AlterG workout in favor of another easy run in the foothill. My sense is I am getting healthy enough to handle more mileage. I also feel a little more volume will help with the weight loss which is running about 1-2 lbs a week.
Igy