agip,
Good job on your prediction, not bad for a somewhat less than retarded CFP.
Igy
agip,
Good job on your prediction, not bad for a somewhat less than retarded CFP.
Igy
Hope springs eternal that Janet can save the day. Unfortunately central banks are powerless in their ability to repeal the economic cycle.
Igy
"Even a retarded CFP would tell you your expectations were misplaced."
LMAO
Unfortunately can't tell you about my art dealings, but would love to.
Also agip, these projections: were they picked for the end of Q1? Or just for 2016 in general? If for the end of Q1, then it's time for the 2nd round of predictions for the end of Q2!
Maserati wrote:
"Even a retarded CFP would tell you your expectations were misplaced."
LMAO
Unfortunately can't tell you about my art dealings, but would love to.
Also agip, these projections: were they picked for the end of Q1? Or just for 2016 in general? If for the end of Q1, then it's time for the 2nd round of predictions for the end of Q2!
obvi end of 2016. But feel free to chip in with your 12/31/16 prediction, Maser. although I know you prefer to speak in broad generalities so you can change your mind next week.
Maserati and agip,
End of Q2 Dow: 14,900.
Am I too Bearish?
Igy
agip and Maserati,
By the way, just in case you were interested, with 498 of the 500 S&P companies reported the 12/31/2015 GAAP earnings for the Last Twelve Months (LTM) is $86.48. The last time earnings were this low was 9/30/2012 when the LTM was $86.50. Just in case you think a 14,900 Dow is unimaginable, the Dow at that time closed the quarter at 13,437.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip and Maserati,
By the way, just in case you were interested, with 498 of the 500 S&P companies reported the 12/31/2015 GAAP earnings for the Last Twelve Months (LTM) is $86.48. The last time earnings were this low was 9/30/2012 when the LTM was $86.50. Just in case you think a 14,900 Dow is unimaginable, the Dow at that time closed the quarter at 13,437.
Igy
too formulaic, igy
had energy company profits just collapsed back in 2012? had the dollar surged?
now it's fairly clear that profits will start growing quickly when we overlap the oil crash. There was no such parallel in 2012
agip,
Come on Fed policy gave more of a tailwind to the economy than oil has been a detractor. What happened to the consumer having more money to spend with lower gas prices? If China, Japan and the EU are driving down their currencies how will that dramatically change the dollar? The inevitability of rising interest rates will keep the dollar higher for longer.
We'll see, I am sure you have plenty of posts to throw at me if I am wrong.
It's all a lot of fun in mind.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
What happened to the consumer having more money to spend with lower gas prices?
Igy
they are saving it
https://ycharts.com/indicators/personal_saving_ratethe saving rate is surging.
agip,
Which brings to mind consumer confidence. The theory that confidence comes from the perception of wealth can be countered by what one considers as permanent income. Permanent income is considered a reason why this recovery has been so anemic. Of course I am open to the belief that this could change but it appears the trend is going the other direction. Today is nothing more than the quants and high frequency traders using an excuse to piggy back on each others trades. They have been doing it for years now, but lately less successfully.
Igy
K5 detector wrote:
Shouldn't you be taking your meds?
Can't you come up with anything other than clichéd ad hominems?
"the saving rate is surging..."
Showed no change year over year?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
"the saving rate is surging..."
Showed no change year over year?
yeah I saw that. but the graph clearly shows a rise in the rate the last few months. If you make the chart 6 months long you'll see a bump. But I acknowledge what you point out.
By Deception wrote:
K5 detector wrote:Shouldn't you be taking your meds?
Can't you come up with anything other than clichéd ad hominems?
Tit for tat.
K5 detector wrote:
By Deception wrote:Can't you come up with anything other than clichéd ad hominems?
Tit for tat.
Asked and answered. You poor SOB
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Feel free to buy your index fund then.
Sounds good to me. You'll finish ahead of most managed funds.
POTO,
Make it so.
Igy
Done.
BAM.
Market opens up 140 on news of 4500 Boeing layoffs, on crap employment numbers falsely related to projections to make them look good, which would be bad because it would suggest a rate increase, and on the cusp of absolutely dismal consolidated Q1 earnings reports.
Are you drinking yet Igy? After all, it's already almost 8am your time, and the fun has already begun.
As for me, my 16-17k prediction held for only the first 2.x months of the year. This is a solid stay above 17.5k. LMAO, it's a good thing I do things with my money other than the equity and bond markets.
DOWN is UP, Igy. I salute you, you are a salt-of-the-earth type, one of the few who actually keep the economy going. You are the bedrock, the inertia, the stalwart. You will be there in good times, and in bad, to backstop the failures and bail out the idiots.
If it weren't for Igy and people like him, everything would be complete shlt, just like many other parts of the world.
Maserati,
Thank you. I think. No drinking, just more exercise.
The propensity of people to do foolish things never amazes me, but it does make me scratch my head.
These periods of idiocy don't just end badly, they become disasters.
Interesting how Japan's all in on negative rates has not panned out. I suspect we will get more of the same when people come to their senses.
They say patience is a virtue, in distance running and in investing it is a necessity.
Igy
Is there a rule against attaching a helium balloon to yourself while running a road race?
Am I living in the twilight zone? The Boston Marathon weather was terrible!
How rare is it to run a sub 5 minute mile AND bench press 225?
Move over Mark Coogan, Rojo and John Kellogg share their 3 favorite mile workouts
Mark Coogan says that if you could only do 3 workouts as a 1500m runner you should do these
Red Bull (who sponsors Mondo) calls Mondo the pole vaulting Usain Bolt. Is that a fair comparison?