You keep saying that.
You keep saying that.
Boy,
I started saying that in spring 2015, and I have been right all along.
Igy
Wolf,
The risk in the stock market is under appreciated. QE has distorted equity prices and the next big move is down rather than up. The Schiller PE is 27 and valuations are stretched when measured against other valuation models. Remember, the stock market has had two 50% down markets in the past fifteen years. The fifteen year average compounded return on the S&P is only 4.3%, which is inferior to treasuries. Treasuries are overvalued as well. Cash is the superior asset class when risk returns to the market.
Read more:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=231#ixzz41yAfvmSa
[quote]Face the fax wrote:
Hussman has been calling for a bear market since 2009.
Really?
He began predicting a bear market when it was in collapse in 2009? Or after it began its recovery?
You have any details on that?
Mango,
Hussman was early in predicting both the decline in advance of the Tech Bubble and Housing Bubble.
Igy
Won a small wager with a friend when the Dow finished the week above 17000. Life is good!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Boy,
I started saying that in spring 2015, and I have been right all along.
Igy
And someone who says the market will go up is also right.
Wolf,
I guess my question would be do you recommend buying stocks any time and all the time regardless of price?
Igy
Life will be bad for many if the Dow hit 13,000 before it hits 20,000.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Wolf,
I guess my question would be do you recommend buying stocks any time and all the time regardless of price?
Igy
Sure. That's called "dollar cost averaging". It's a widely accepted investment strategy. I'm surprised you're not familiar with it.
Wolf,
Good idea if you are a beginning investor. An OK idea, but less than optimal, if you have grown your assets over the last fifteen years. A poor idea if you are in the distribution phase.
Not a any size fits all solution.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Boy,
I started saying that in spring 2015, and I have been right all along.
Igy
To be fair, Igy has stuck to his guns and even put his money where his mouth is by giving us a date by which he predicts the Dow will go below 13,000. The other primary naysayer on this thread hasn't been that courageous.
Meanwhile I'm sure he'll deny it, but I think Igy might be a bit worried about our little bet. Time is running out.
Refresh the readers. When is the Dow going below 13,000?
agip wrote:
http://qz.com/631422/were-live-charting-the-us-jobs-report-for-february/some charts on the improving employment situation
Both the job market and economy continue to grow. This is very good news!
Warren Old Country Buffet wrote:
Refresh the readers. When is the Dow going below 13,000?
I have no idea, but Igy thought it would do so no later than September 13.
Interestingly this week marked the midpoint of our wager's time frame. Currently the Dow is 3.3% higher than it was when we made the bet. Get ready to pay up, Igy!
I hereby proclaim, to all the World, the Dow will be under 13,000 by September 13, 2016. If I am wrong POTO gets the favorite libation of his choice or a pine float. If I win I take the place of Nostradamus in history.
Igy
Big,
The evil David Stockman has a different view of the "miracle" job recovery of hot dog vendors and baristas:
Stockman's view is more in-line with the Maserati/Igy view of the illusion of growth.
Igy
You guys must be a lot of fun at parties.
The boy who cried "Wolf!" wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Wolf,
I guess my question would be do you recommend buying stocks any time and all the time regardless of price?
Igy
Sure. That's called "dollar cost averaging". It's a widely accepted investment strategy. I'm surprised you're not familiar with it.
Everyone is familiar with it. It's effin nonsensical though. If the market has had a good to great run for 4 years or more, why not bail out and wait for the next "correction" --which could very well be a collapse as we saw twice in the first 8 years of the century.
It only makes sense for the brokers and mutual funds who make more money off of their customers if the customers are always in and always buying.
I'm surprised you could not figure this out yourself.
Hi, K5! Given your track record, do you really think you should be giving investment advice?
Am I living in the twilight zone? The Boston Marathon weather was terrible!
Is there a rule against attaching a helium balloon to yourself while running a road race?
How rare is it to run a sub 5 minute mile AND bench press 225?
Move over Mark Coogan, Rojo and John Kellogg share their 3 favorite mile workouts
Mark Coogan says that if you could only do 3 workouts as a 1500m runner you should do these
Matt Choi was drinking beer halfway through the Boston Marathon