Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Say,
The Federal Reserve QE did more to drive stock valuations to excessive levels than the 0.25% move has done to bring stock valuations to a normal level.
Igy
I'm pretty sure that was the point.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Say,
The Federal Reserve QE did more to drive stock valuations to excessive levels than the 0.25% move has done to bring stock valuations to a normal level.
Igy
I'm pretty sure that was the point.
It was their theoretical point, but it will prove to be there factual mistake.
But they've already succeeded. Maybe it will come back to bite them, but there's no denying the success of the QEs at boosting the market.
well I guess I'm back
nice looking capitulation yesterday - down 4.9% from the prior day's high at the worst moment. That's pretty serious panic selling.
Now today we are already up 4.1% from yesterday's low
maybe yesterday was throwing in the towel.
Although anything can happen, I still like my prediction of the market idling between 16-17k, until election time rolls around. I don't consider closes slightly outside this arbitrary range to be significant.
interestingly, the SPY sp500 etf yesteday hit exaclty the same intraday low as it did in August.
Say,
The beginning of 2016 is only the beginning of end of this market trend.
Igy
agip,
It is not close to being over.
Igy
I've been buying recently, including today. I've got a little more cash left.
Interesting story - it tracks the correlation between the chinese and US stock markets.
it alternates between hot and cold - meaning for some time the US correlates tightly, then it goes to negative correlation.
Point being that in 3 months we could easily be back in negative correlation mode and this is just traders going nuts rather than any long term trend.
although since 2014 the correlation seems to have been longer lasting than usual.
agin, I'm glad you didn't take too much of a break. I look forward to your thoughtful analysis. Thank you.
agip...not agin. Damn autocorrect.
Big Dog Investments wrote:
agin, I'm glad you didn't take too much of a break. I look forward to your thoughtful analysis. Thank you.
grazie, BDI - wright back at you
Big,
I notice you never thank me. I feel ignored.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Big,
I notice you never thank me. I feel ignored.
Igy
no one has been more accurate than you in making market predictions, Igy
agip,
Thanks.
I better quit posting now and retire from this thread.
Igy
No offense intended, Igy.
Big,
Thanks. Just joking of course, glad agip hiatus is over. Good luck on your trades.
Igy
My main point is that its not a matter of what people think the Fed should do. Its facing up to what the Fed IS going to do and dealing with it. I think that was what Jamie Dimon was saying. Based on the data points that the Fed has always looked at, they are probably going to continue to raise rates. Dimon was saying that the Fed shouldn't second guess themselves and change the metrics just because Wall Street doesn't like it.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ryan,
I agree with your view that interest rates need to go up. In my view it should have happened three years ago.
Igy
Ryan,
Agreed and hope that is the way things play out.
Igy