I believe Europe is on the rebound. I went in last week.
I believe Europe is on the rebound. I went in last week.
Big,
I don't have an opinion on Europe, so what is the catalyst for your investment?
Igy
Europe is a funny place/places.
First, there are widely different places, economically speaking. Second, in my direct experience, personal accounts are in a very much different state than are public accounts. Euros still remember the war, and are notorious mattress-stuffers--which, IMO, is a good thing. It provides a buffering effect.
Europe will grind along, always. They are wary, resilient, and incredulous.
The status of their public accounts also varies widely, depending on which country, and which dimension, you are talking about--some good, some not so bad, some disastrous.
There are also huge black markets operating all over europe, even western europe. Western governments, especially in France, have done everything possible to ensnare every transaction into taxation, and all property into recordation...and yet, individuals and families still manage to accumulate and preserve wealth.
Because they are mattress stuffers, accurate pictures of personal finances/wealth are never publicly presented. What I know is that there is a huge gap between the have's and the have-not's. Also, there is a significant black market in many things, especially in eastern/southern europe, but also in western europe, which IMO also acts as a buffer to the vagaries of publicly-known transactions.
Russia and England loom large in their effects on european economies.
Would I invest there at the moment? Maybe, but only in certain things, not in broad indexes, or even sectors. I am doing business over there, but have declined certain opportunities because of regulatory burdens going forward. The costs of doing business are still high, if you wish to do it entirely legitimately. If you wish to be less legitimate, you really need to know how to operate locally, and I admit that I do not.
I too am curious what would make someone believe it a good time to "invest in europe", in a public manner using open markets. I would feel alright if I lived there and had a stuffed mattress, but I would not feel confident as an exposed foreign investor. Make sure you hedge currencies.
Igy, do you have any opinion on the valuations of european stocks in general, as well as some specific european giants?
Also Igy and others, how do you feel about MTM, fair value, and FAS 157?
Maserati,
I question the longevity of the Euro. The ECB Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) seems an experimental time bomb. You have to wonder when the outer bounds of the natural are pushed to the limits.
I am sure there are opportunities in Europe, but I think it is very difficult to isolate what they are. I prefer to invest in a good active manager that can look for the best opportunities around the world. I find country or region investing similar to picking individual stocks or sectors. One mistake can blow up your portfolio. I don't doubt that individuals like coach d can do it, but most people cannot.
Igy
Agree in general. I think that if I were looking to invest in a country via equities, it would probably be Japan, again hedging currency, of course.
Also in europe, political fractionation is entirely possible, meaning that you REALLY need to be able to operate locally. Risk is too great if you do not live there, IMO. Stick to a large monolithic culture/economy like Japan.
Maserati,
FASB 157 allowed the banks some discretion to mark mortgages closer to loan value. Interestingly enough the stock market stopped declining at that point in March of 2009. The result was to allow banks to trickle bad loans on to the market without having equivalent bank reserves to balance the bad debt. Unfortunately instead of flushing out bad investments, this and Federal Reserve policies encouraged another round of speculation. And another serious stock market bubble. The stock market decine has only started in my view.
Igy
Maserati wrote:
Also Igy and others, how do you feel about MTM, fair value, and FAS 157?
FAS 157 + 2004 SEC amendment to Rule 15c3–1 + Level 3 assets + repo; connect the dots and then you'll understand what happened in 2008.
Maserati,
It was an amendment to FASB 157 on March 17, 2009:
http://www.fasb.org/news/nr031709.shtml
Igy
Muy loca,
Federal Reserve policy has been at the very least complicit in the 2000 and 2008 market bubbles. Today, I believe their bizarre QE policies infected our stock market and then was doubled down by the ECB and JCB. It is not hard to see why markets throughout the world are in a funk.
Igy
In a funk until the next QE, that is.
Don't laugh.
Yes, I know about the Fed's huge balance sheet. I also know there are some who believe they should not decrease it.
Increasing it further is just one more small step away.
I find country or region investing similar to picking individual stocks or sectors. One mistake can blow up your portfolio. I don't doubt that individuals like coach d can do it, but most people cannot.
So you do not favor a diversified portfolio that includes international investments?
Say,
No, of course not. I believe most people should invest in international ETFs or mutual funds, rather than country specific, region specific, or individual equities.
Igy
But conventional wisdom is that Europe is on the rebound while the rest of the world outside of the US is problematic. What's wrong with buying a European index fund?
Ghost of Igloi wrote: One mistake can blow up your portfolio. I don't doubt that individuals like coach d can do it, but most people cannot.
Igy
Here's a couple for you for you:
DWTI
CMD
See how easy that was?
coach d wrote:dumba$$ for sure.
This is the REAL chart of Berkshire Hathaway Class A vs. the DOW:
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=YMY00&style=technical&template=&p=MO&d=H&sd=01%2F01%2F2000&ed=01%2F18%2F2016&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=0&g=1&pct=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=BRK.A&a1=on&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
Not quite sure if you are trying to make me look stupid, or if your point is something different, we both plotted exactly the same data...? What do you mean "REAL?"
long time dumba$$ investor wrote:...Not quite sure if you are trying to make me look stupid, ...... which would of course be OK, I AM stupid. But I'm trying to understand your point...
Ready for the rally.
RIP: D3 All-American Frank Csorba - who ran 13:56 in March - dead
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year
Hats off to my dad. He just ran a 1:42 Half Marathon and turns 75 in 2 months!
2024 College Track & Field Open Coaching Positions Discussion
Running for Bowerman Track Club used to be cool now its embarrassing