Rates will rise as I've noted earlier. Their effect on the market, especially the bond market, will not be noteworthy.
Rates will rise as I've noted earlier. Their effect on the market, especially the bond market, will not be noteworthy.
Maserati wrote:
This past weekend I was thinking of buying some CHF with USD. Might wait until after the fed, though.
Shouldn't have waited Maser.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDCHF%3DX+Interactive#Super Mario missed on Whisper#
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=IMZ15&style=technical&template=&p=I&d=X&im=15&sd=11%2F02%2F2015&ed=12%2F03%2F2015&size=L&log=0&t=BAR&v=2&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jumpCould have made $3500-$4200 per standard lot in just 4 days !!!
This past weekend I was thinking of buying some CHF with USD. Might wait until after the fed, though.[/quote]
Shouldn't have waited Maser.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDCHF%3DX+Interactive#
Super Mario missed on Whisper#
Could have made $3500-$4200 per standard lot in just 4 days !!![/quote]
OR...
Companies long the US Dollar Index to hedge overseas currency risk would have lost maximum $3000 per $2310 initial futures margin in 15-30 minutes. They lost a fortune even with automated systems because people on the other side would not have taken the trade except at much lower prices once the ECB decision was known.
This IS a dangerous game unless you are well financed. And, no, I would never play that kind of game front running a central bank.
coach d wrote:
This past weekend I was thinking of buying some CHF with USD. Might wait until after the fed, though.
Shouldn't have waited Maser.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDCHF%3DX+Interactive#Super Mario missed on Whisper#
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=IMZ15&style=technical&template=&p=I&d=X&im=15&sd=11%2F02%2F2015&ed=12%2F03%2F2015&size=L&log=0&t=BAR&v=2&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jumpCould have made $3500-$4200 per standard lot in just 4 days !!![/quote]
OR...
Companies long the US Dollar Index to hedge overseas currency risk would have lost maximum $3000 per $2310 initial futures margin in 15-30 minutes. They lost a fortune even with automated systems because people on the other side would not have taken the trade except at much lower prices once the ECB decision was known.
This IS a dangerous game unless you are well financed. And, no, I would never play that kind of game front running a central bank.
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=DXZ15&t=BAR&size=M&v=2&g=1&p=I:5&d=L&qb=1&style=technical&template=[/quote]
How did that GBPJPY trade work out ?
http://www.barchart.com/charts/forex/%5EGBPJPYmaser, good theoretical call.
relatedly - markets are sure not rational in the short term.
down 300 on Thursday
up 300 on Friday
bottoms up, lads
gente--
I actually did buy some, as part of a group purchase, and it is my understanding that it has been since traded for something else. I don't know, I've had my head up my butt for 2 days working on something else. I will check.
My feeling was to wait, but I was outvoted, so fine, I had no problem with that. We will still need CHF at the right time--i.e. still need to make another buy--so who knows if this will work out better in the long run.
Only time will tell. The goal wasn't to make any money with it, but to buy it at the right time.
I don't like to play around with currencies. A close relative is the head of forex at a major bank. Talking to him has made me run as fast as I can in the other direction.
Like coach d said, you need insane capitalization, which I don't have.
Markets up today on the phony jobs numbers, as a pretext for the fed raise. Friend who converted to cash is happy so far. I still think things will rise a bit going into xmas, although there will be gyrations along the way.
Yes, it worked out well, but to me that's like saying you just ran a better-than-expected first 400m of your 800m race.
What would have been ideal would have been if we could have adjusted the project schedule to have flexible milestones to float currency, but that wasn't possible. We will still need to make a buy, and I still think conditions will be favorable after the fed.
If they are, then good, we have more for the inevitable contingencies. If they aren't, then we have some cushion with which to work. Because this isn't the main project, it's just like other "good" news, which is more often than not more than offset by "bad" news, such as delivery schedules, etc.
Business as usual. For the record, I don't like currency shxt, to me it's like playing games. I prefer more substantive endeavors and projects. Over currencies, I have no control.
glad my bs meter goes to 11.
We know that's you, Igy.
Last post wasn't me.
g williams, you sound like you have no life, nothing going on.
DJIA past 17.8k now. Back near the historic overpriced levels. I'm now very tempted to take that small 401k to cash for the next while.
As always (g williams), I will be honest--I don't know how often that 401k can be re-balanced. I'm thinking 6 months. Nor do I know exactly when the rebalancing is executed, I haven't paid it any attention, it is too small a portfolio contribution to devote time, although I will look this weekend. 80% vfinx
Maserati,
Not me either. The monthly commentary from Bill Gross (below) is worth reading. I believe the current environment remains one of the most dangerous stock or bond markets in history.
https://www.janus.com/bill-gross-investment-outlook?gclid=CMbAodiGw8kCFYhffgodiAgJ8w
Have a good weekend.
Igy
In history? That's seems to be a stretch.
I'll say it again, I agree with your basic outlook...but that article by Gross says, essentially, nothing. It doesn't provide even the minimal amount of detail to give his views any credibility--sort of like my blog posts! The difference being that he is trying to sell something to his audience (although less so than in the past), whereas I'm not.
One thing I do agree with, in general, is that demand has been stolen from the future. A long while back I railed that the american consumer had no money, and that once they went down, everything would go down. Agip, I think, disagreed strongly. IIRC my contention was that everything was debt financed, both directly through personal debt, and indirectly through government deficits to fund entitlement programs of all sorts.
I still believe this to be the case. I also believe that more and more of the "spending" goes to economic waste, especially since huge amounts of it go to medical insurance and medical treatment, which are insanely wasteful as currently conceived.
I still don't like the direction of things. I still believe the everyman has nowhere to go except for the equity and bond markets, or maybe buy some RE if they have the $ and desire, but even that is more difficult in tax-advantaged accounts like a SDIRA, for which most people don't have the stomach.
Igy did you think we would see so close to 18k again, so soon? I thought we would get there, but not this quickly.
Maserati,
Yes, we can get over 18k Dow again, but it sure seems to struggle with that level; same with 2100 S&P. Institutions are keeping the markets up, but the narrow leadership is making that increasingly difficult to maintain. Once the realization hits that the cycle has peaked the game is over.
Debt fueled consumption not only steals demand from the future, it leverages the effect on the upside and downside. That seems to get forgotten even though we have seen the story twice in the last fifteen years.
Some people never learn. It is shameful that those that know better and influence the financial system are blind or ignore it.
Igy
POTO,
Not a stretch at all. Bill Gross, David Tepper, Stan Druckenmiller, John Hussman, Robert Shiller, Sam Zell, Carl Icahn, all hold similar views. Global interest rates at historic lows and stock valuations at record highs, how can one think otherwise?
Optimism is admirable when it is informed. Optimism that is not supported by facts not only serves no purpose but it is dangerous.
Igy
The fact that valuations are high is itself a reflection of informed optimism. Surely you understand that.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
POTO,
Not a stretch at all. Bill Gross, David Tepper, Stan Druckenmiller, John Hussman, Robert Shiller, Sam Zell, Carl Icahn, all hold similar views. Global interest rates at historic lows and stock valuations at record highs, how can one think otherwise?
Optimism is admirable when it is informed. Optimism that is not supported by facts not only serves no purpose but it is dangerous.
Igy
Actually, it's a GIGANTIC stretch. The Shiller CAPE was about the same as it is now in October, 1996 with the S&P at 701. The market MORE THAN DOUBLED from then to the top 4 YEARS LATER. If I had listened back then to what you are selling, I might never have been able to afford to retire (which I did in 2000 by listening to Peter Lynch).
Bill Gross has negative returns this year. David Tepper and Sam Zell are not stock investors. Stan Druckenmiller was forced out of the hedge business in 2010, i.e., the start of one of the largest bull markets in history. John Hussman is one of the worst investment managers in the Morningstar database--in one of the biggest bull markets in history, he has lost 35% of his investors' money--maybe only Peter Schiff has been worse. Even Icahn is an activist investor, not really a buy and hold type stock picker, and BTW, my Netflix is up 35% since Icahn sold his on 6/24/2015 as I have read.
Please explain why I would want to listen to any of these people about the stock market.
Once again (and yes I am shouting):
YOU CANNOT PREDICT THE MARKET IN ADVANCE!!!!!
coach d,
I think you are wrong, very wrong. You are welcome to put faith in your charts and momentum indicators.
Igy
POTO,
High valuations are a reflection of investors that view the stock market as a horse race where you place your bet on the fastest ticker.
Igy