Sorry I posted the wrong video. Here is the short video that highlights how the Fed's ill advised interference led us to the dangerously over-valued market we have today.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/stockman-cnbc-interview-last-spasm-of-the-bull-meltdown-ahead/
Igy
You don't fool us for a second, faker.
LGGY
LGLOI,
Ah, but you have exposed yourself as the Faker. Ghost copies links to the evil David Stockman and not David Hasselhoff.
Igy
Here is another video to go along with the correct link:
For the life of me I don't understand why you continue to follow a guy with a reputation for fiscal failure in both the government and private sectors.
Just looking at the CSFB hedge fund indices and thinking about Coach D's claim of being up 40% - Their managed futures category is among the worst - down 3.15% year to date. Isn't managed futures pretty much what D is doing? Just following trends on commodities? Can't say I understand the strategy very well, but why is D up 40% and the professionals down 3%? Weird.
For the record, their all-strategy hedge fund index is flat for the year.
Of all of Morningstar equity categories, only one is positive for the YTD - large growth. Every other category is negative. And it isn't even close - large growth is up 3.39% and the next best category, midcap growth, is negative around 50 bps.
Which backs up Igy's observation that this market is very thin - held up by a few giant companies that dominate the Sp500. Like Google and Amazon.
Definitely worrisome - a vote of no-confidence in the market in general.
Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
For the life of me I don't understand why you continue to follow a guy with a reputation for fiscal failure in both the government and private sectors.
it's a website man - stockman doesn't write much of the content. as has been pointed out over and over.
but yeah, stockman is not a good person to take advice from.
A vote of no confidence, yet markets continue to ratchet up, albeit slowly.
Igy, the guy I know who has been shorting commodities is up between 20-25%. He has been only semi-aggressive, and has been shorting mostly gold, but also oil. He has also been shorting energy and mining on the TSX.
Talked to a friend yesterday who has a target date Vanguard 401k. He got nervous during the last correction, and plans on moving it all to cash very soon, as he sees the latest rise as a dead cat bounce. He also has brokerage accounts, and is moving a bunch of them to cash today.
Of course relating one person's feelings and actions doesn't say much, I just thought I would put it out there. DJIA at 17.6k at the moment.
One more thing: regulatory barriers in the USA are getting ridiculous, and adding huge sums to the cost of products and services, not to mention delaying many intrinsically worthwhile projects. Can't say what I'm currently working on, but what I can say is that, compared to even only 15 years ago, regulation seems to have spiraled out of control. My current big project will likely be the last I do in the USA, and even my current small project--renovating the condo next door--will likely be my last US real estate acquisition, except for maybe some acreage in Pennsylvania.
Just some random thoughts.
POTO,
I posted the link to mainly give the Faker crap. Like agip said the site has good articles from a variety of sources including mainstream Wall Street Journal that many times you cannot read with subscription.
Igy
agip and Maserati,
In regards to commodities, over the short to intermediate term the trend appears to be flat or down. Slower global growth does not point to an improvement anytime soon. The bumps in retail earnings shows either a permanent change in buying habits or a general spending down trend. The narrow breadth of the market with fund flows into the high market cap stocks like AMZN, GOOGL, APPL, MCD, GE may show hedgies or other large institutions trying to "safely" move the market in their favor. It is interesting to note that the market has made little progress since the end of QE, and gets less bounce with the prospect of new easing. The earnings trend is down, high yield spreads continuing to expand, corporate deal making is more difficult, and there have been notable story stock blow-ups.
Igy
POTO,
This piece was on the CNBC website today:
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/17/expect-a-market-meltdown-before-the-2016-election-stockman.html
Igy
sp500 only 2.3% below all time high
agip wrote:
Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:For the life of me I don't understand why you continue to follow a guy with a reputation for fiscal failure in both the government and private sectors.
it's a website man - stockman doesn't write much of the content. as has been pointed out over and over.
but yeah, stockman is not a good person to take advice from.
The links Igy provided this morning are to two videos of Stockman speaking. He is clearly one of Igy's mentors.
POTO,
No Mihaly Igloi was my mentor. In regards to Stockman, I think he has a point that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates too low for too long. That is the same view that many people have including David Tepper, Stan Drunkenmiller, Sam Zell, Jim Grant, John Hussmann, Robert Shiller, John Bogel, Bill Gross, to name a few. We will see how stocks react when the Fed and Janet no longer have their "back."
Igy
It would be interesting to know how many times the S&P has been over 2,100.
I don't think Igloi was your investment mentor. At least, I hope not.
POTO,
He taught the valuable lesson of working hard and belief in yourself. That pretty much carries over to every profession. I have never met anyone quite like him.
Igy
No doubt.
RIP: D3 All-American Frank Csorba - who ran 13:56 in March - dead
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
Running for Bowerman Track Club used to be cool now its embarrassing
Hats off to my dad. He just ran a 1:42 Half Marathon and turns 75 in 2 months!
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year
Rest in Peace Adrian Lehmann - 2:11 Swiss marathoner. Dies of heart attack.