Elite,
Here is how you are wrong:
1) Siegel's article was written before the most recent sell-off and thus his multiple is based on a higher S&P 500.
2) Forward earnings is NOT accurate, current most recently reported last twelve month's S&P earnings (LTM) is $96 a share and Wall Street average forward earnings estimate is around $120. Most years the Wall Street analyst numbers are revised downward over the course of the year-A FACT.
3) Even if we accept Siegel's multiple on face value, it is still 11% below actual LTM earnings multiple. The trend is down and is likely to deteriorate further. Stock prices fall more rapidly in advance of a declining earnings compressing multiples. This action on multiples is the opposite of what we have experienced the past three years. That is, expanding stock prices advancing in front of rising earnings.
Lastly, you ignored the point on the price of oil and othe commodities. Siegel has clearly been wrong on the price of oil which is central to the thesis of his article.
Sorry, everything is not "awesome."
Igy