Down goes the Dow

mellon wrote:

People sitting on the sidelines waiting for this big correction are wasting their time and money. Too much money being fed into the market daily by retirement funds (IRA's 401K's etc.) These people aren't playing with their money, they're just pumping it in.

These little 1 @ 2% swings are going to continue to happen, but anything short of some major global event this market isn't going to take a major step backwards anytime soon.

You might as well admit you've been a fool (like the OP), and get back in now.

money is always being fed in the market daily - even in 1999 and 2008. But the market fell by 50% those times.

We are way overdue for a 10-15% correction - it's been a long long time since.

I don't see any massive bubbles, but they are hard to pick out. Bonds are expensive, but inflation is very low - real returns on bonds isn't crazy - 1-2% over inflation.

agip wrote:

[quote]mellon wrote:

money is always being fed in the market daily - even in 1999 and 2008. But the market fell by 50% those times.

Those were not corrections, they were crashes. Which can always happen due to events (Dot.com - Mortgage Crisis).

I'm just saying, with the demise of the traditional retirement plans, the make up of the investors today is much different than it was 15-20 years ago. The majority haven't a clue about economic indicators or anything else related to the market. All they know is they need to be saving money for retirement and the primary place they should be putting it is in the stock market.

Ask them if they're concerned about a correction, and they'll look at you like "What did I do wrong".

I am not sure what your point is here. Traditional retirement plans, I am assuming you mean pension plans. Pension plans are professionally managed and pay a defined benefit. On the other hand, defined contribution plans like 401ks depend on individually funding and investment choices. Unfortunately, the average 401k is underfunded at less than $20,000. The average participant looks at current fund performance to make choices and there is little thought to asset allocation. Current regulations have fortunately added age based funds to the investment line ups to improve chances for better asset allocation.

In terms of the average investors market acumen, well similar to their views on current events...a Kardasian World. When the correction comes there will be sales at the bottom, just like over allocation to stocks today. One life to live, live it.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I am not sure what your point is here. .

That's pretty obvious!

mellon wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I am not sure what your point is here. .

That's pretty obvious!

That's helpful!

My point is:

Read the first several post on this thread. Those that were predicting this big correction almost 2 years ago are no where to be found now.

I said it back then (you can read my post) and I'm saying it now. In my opinion (for what its worth) this big correction thats been predicted for several years now may very well never happen. Maybe I'll be wrong. You can feel free to come on here and tear me up if it does.

mellon wrote:

My point is:

Read the first several post on this thread. Those that were predicting this big correction almost 2 years ago are no where to be found now.

I said it back then (you can read my post) and I'm saying it now. In my opinion (for what its worth) this big correction thats been predicted for several years now may very well never happen. Maybe I'll be wrong. You can feel free to come on here and tear me up if it does.

if you are saying that the market will never ever again fall 10% (the normal definition of a correction), then your opinion is in fact not worth anything. (hey, you asked)

agip wrote:

then your opinion is in fact not worth anything

I don't claim it to be.

Enjoy the wait.

For the record, I'm still here.

"this big correction thats been predicted for several years now may very well never happen. Maybe I'll be wrong. You can feel free to come on here and tear me up if it does."

As the Terminator says: "I'll be baack."

Those idiots need to post their portfolios if they want to be taken seriously. It seems obvious that they hold a particular position and want to drive public opinion to improve their own personal investments.

mellon wrote:

Are these so called financial guru's idiots or what?

MSN Money headline today "Are you ready for a 4,000 point drop?"

As the market goes up over 250 points.

They're wishing for this big correction that ain't going to happen.

mellon wrote:

Klondike5 wrote:

I got out at the end of June with the Dow at @ 15,000.

No plans to get back in any time soon. I will play it be feel.

Got out in 2008 with the Dow at 12,800 having come down from mid 14,000s. Boy was I glad I did as I watched most of my acquaintances take the ride down to 6,800.

Got back in later in 2009 with the Dow at @ 9,000

Keep in mind, all of those who have gotten out, trying to time the market, and all of those articles trying to convince people we're in for a big correction, would like nothing more than everybody to get out so it would drive the market down.

Hang tight, and reap the rewards that are about to come or you're going to miss it.

I still stand by my post of 2 years ago.

So those who are not in the market and those predicting a correction would like the market to go down? That's pure genius, my friend.

HUGE bond rally

Praise Jesus, thank the Lord

I will sleep tonight

I think these ETFs are really driving some crazy volatility in bonds - billions can run into the markets in 10 minutes in any corner of the market - I love the low cost of ETFs but no doubt they will cause an accident at some point

AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Plunges To A 2-Year Low

http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/8683351/aaii-sentiment-survey-optimism-plunges-to-a-2-year-low

My sense is that an upleg is going to start around the end of the month, either after the Greece problem is fixed, or after it unravels and triggers a larger correction.

I'll also make another point. There was a thread about a week ago from a guy who was looking for help buying stocks. He had been burned in the technology top in 2000 because he sold some tech stock and lost some money and was gun-shy, but apparently wasn't doing very well in mutual funds (big surprise there). So I looked up some numbers.

Following Peter Lynch methods (own what you know), I bought MSFT and INTC on the first trading day of 1991. Two years later, they were both up ~2.5 times, so I sold half and bought CSCO and ORCL. I mostly rode those 4 stocks to afford to retire in my 40's with a portfolio over $1 million back in 2000 (I went into coaching to have something to do). I started to phase out in fall of 1998 after Buffett wrote in his message to investors that he had stopped buying stocks in 1998 because he couldn't find anything worth buying (overvalued by his methods). I closed out of my last holdings in April 2000 and didn't own anything other than Pimco Total Return until the end of 2002.

So the question is, what if I didn't sell in 2000, didn't retire, and just held those stocks for about 25 years? These are the percentage returns from 1/1/1991 until now:

MSFT: 4,270%

INTC: 2,938%

ORCL: 25,405%

CSCO: 10.161%

I started in 1991 with $6600 left after I got rid of mutual funds that I had since before the 1987 crash, and $30000 from a commodity trade (long the Deutchmark for 18 months when the elder Bush was President).

If I had NOT sold in 2000 and rode it all the way down and all the way back up again, I would still have a few millions in my account, so I would say to think twice before selling because the market is "overvalued". The list of stocks I have that can be found many pages above in this thread I actually bought on June 22, 2009 (there are actually two more stocks that I bought in early 2012 when EMAs reversed---NVR and RYL, and you can look them up as well). I have held them for ~6 years and have no plans to sell. Yahoo Finance says they are presently up 519% since I bought them. I am actually hoping for some blood on the street due to the EU situation and am looking to buy.

Klondike5 wrote:

For the record, I'm still here.

In that case dude, start saying crazy shit again. This thread has become boring as hell without some good old-fashioned crazy.

Good for you d.

HOWEVER...

When looking at the price of anything, you have to understand the factors that are responsible for that pricing. Both now, and in the dotcom, leverage was very high. Everybody is talking about price supports today, and they are right.

In dotcom, ratios and prices hit a certain level, then crashed. Now they are at similar levels. The markets do not exist in a vacuum, as assets and investments they are but few offerings in a broader marketplace.

In short, there may be some intrinsic maximum price level that can be sustained, given certain assumptions about especially currencies.

If those stocks were to go up the same amount by 25 years from now, my bet would be that EITHER: 1) they would rise from a lower level, which would mean a deep correction before that rise began, or 2) roughly equivalent currency devaluation during that period, or increased taxation that results in a relatively static "value".

From my perspective, the important thing at the moment is to have liquidity so that one can respond rapidly if the opportunity arises.

[quote]mellon wrote:

My point is:

I said it back then (you can read my post) and I'm saying it now. In my opinion (for what its worth) this big correction thats been predicted for several years now may very well never happen.

Mind boggling.

the record wrote:

Klondike5 wrote:

For the record, I'm still here.

In that case dude, start saying crazy shit again. This thread has become boring as hell without some good old-fashioned crazy.

The Real K5 will return with a shoulder for you all to cry on when the marker inevitably crashes yet again. The Real K5 will know he got a 60% plus return over the 4 year period he was back in the market and that he showed patience and a lack of greed by getting out in 2013 and waited to return until after the coming crash. He will not gloat.