Down goes the Dow

kool beans - what a rally

interestingly, the US is lagging -

YTD

US: +2.3%

Everywhere but US: +4.1%

which shows how everyone ran to one side of the boat last year - away from everywhere but the US - what a rout that was.

knowing WHEN to be contrarian is the hard part - you can be contrarian but so early that you get killed.

You've been touting overseas markets for awhile, agip. Looks like you were right again.

AGAIN with the maserati references?! Didn't he say that the dow would be 18k, then 19k this year, maybe up to 20? He's looking pretty good to me.

Maserati also got out before the market soared. He made predictions on both sides to cover his arse. For every correct one, he had a wrong one.

I love the way Maserati managed to spin being wrong as "doing the right thing"

Although I did the right thing, I did underestimate the US market gains for 2014. My projections were right on going through Q3, then Q4 exceeded all my expectations--however, I did realize that sometime back at the end of Q3 IIRC (I don't remember exactly when), and revised my projections to 18k by the EOY, and 19k not too long thereafter.

When are people going to recognize that you CANNOT predict the market in advance? There are methods like asset allocation to minimize/reduce risk, but really you choose between:

(1) Buy and hold, and hope the marked bails you out in the end;

(2) Find a new trend that has started first, and hitch on for the ride.

That's it. Projections are mostly meaningless unless backed by a significant amount of data (and then everybody knows about it so it doesn't work any more Example: Elliott Wave).

There's an old saying: The market exists to frustrate the largest numbers of investors.

yo this thread is boring as shit

Another record day. Cha-Ching!

agip wrote:

anyone want a gentleperson's bet?

I just bought $500 of an ETF that tracks the Greek stock market.

Ticker GREK - 39 shares at $12.85.

I am willing to bet $100, paid to the winner's favorite charity, that this investment will beat my opponent's best single pick as of 12/31/2015

any takers?

just want to point out that this pick is up around 9.6% from where I bought it vs maybe half that for the world market.

all time highs again today in the uS, not quite globally

Maserati alert! Dow is at like 18,150, and according to him/her we should now see a relatively quick march to 19k, something to do with spring greening or something. I bet it happens within 4 months, the time limit on the Greek extension.

Here we go!

The BiTurbo Sucked wrote:

Maserati alert! Dow is at like 18,150, and according to him/her we should now see a relatively quick march to 19k, something to do with spring greening or something. I bet it happens within 4 months, the time limit on the Greek extension.

Here we go!

well, either that or a total societal breakdown involving civil unrest and the country dividing into warring regions

The Greek economy is about the same size as Rhode Island's. In the big picture, it's not really a big deal. I say yank them from the Eurozone and let them sink.

You mean the LEGAL Greek economy.

The black market is vastly larger, but they have been trying to clamp down via mechanisms such as making gold more difficult to buy, which is why they all fly Ryanair to Brussels now. Billions of withdrawals from savings already. These people have been around the block, they are, and will always be, OK--they're just trying to suck as much out of the government as possible.

Maserati alert! Dow is now 18,225, AFTER YELLEN TESTIFIES.

Everything Maserati said was right so far. EVERYTHING EXCEPT A CRASH IN 2014.

The march toward 19,000 is on.

Me personally, I will liquidate my taxable accounts at that point and buy real estate, if it happens before October. Serious people were seriously talking about serious overheating and overpricing at 17,000!

The BiTurbo Sucked wrote:

Maserati alert! Dow is now 18,225, AFTER YELLEN TESTIFIES.

Everything Maserati said was right so far. EVERYTHING EXCEPT A CRASH IN 2014.

The march toward 19,000 is on.

Me personally, I will liquidate my taxable accounts at that point and buy real estate, if it happens before October. Serious people were seriously talking about serious overheating and overpricing at 17,000!

If the stock market collapses real estate would not be a good investment.

Randy Oldman wrote:

The BiTurbo Sucked wrote:

Maserati alert! Dow is now 18,225, AFTER YELLEN TESTIFIES.

Everything Maserati said was right so far. EVERYTHING EXCEPT A CRASH IN 2014.

The march toward 19,000 is on.

Me personally, I will liquidate my taxable accounts at that point and buy real estate, if it happens before October. Serious people were seriously talking about serious overheating and overpricing at 17,000!

If the stock market collapses real estate would not be a good investment.

Of course, this might depend on what kind of real estate. Undeveloped real estate could work out great in a market & economic collapse. Holding costs are low, and you get crazy deals on hiring people and buying materials to develop it in the middle of a depression.

Formula reader btwn the lines wrote:

Randy Oldman wrote:

If the stock market collapses real estate would not be a good investment.

Of course, this might depend on what kind of real estate. Undeveloped real estate could work out great in a market & economic collapse. Holding costs are low, and you get crazy deals on hiring people and buying materials to develop it in the middle of a depression.

It took 2 years for the real estate market to bottom out after the start of the 2007+ recession.

The BiTurbo Sucked wrote:

Maserati alert! Dow is now 18,225, AFTER YELLEN TESTIFIES.

Everything Maserati said was right so far. EVERYTHING EXCEPT A CRASH IN 2014.

The march toward 19,000 is on.

Me personally, I will liquidate my taxable accounts at that point and buy real estate, if it happens before October. Serious people were seriously talking about serious overheating and overpricing at 17,000!

Oh, yeah...everything except a crash in 2014. That's a little miss. Ha ha ha ha.

Randy Oldman wrote:

Formula reader btwn the lines wrote:

Of course, this might depend on what kind of real estate. Undeveloped real estate could work out great in a market & economic collapse. Holding costs are low, and you get crazy deals on hiring people and buying materials to develop it in the middle of a depression.

It took 2 years for the real estate market to bottom out after the start of the 2007+ recession.

Point being?