Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market is a 1999 book by syndicated columnist James K. Glassman and American Enterprise Institute scholar and former Federal Reserve economist Kevin A. Hassett.[1][2] in which they argued that stocks in 1999 were significantly undervalued and concluded that there would be a fourfold market increase with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rising to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004.[3][4] The Dow was pushed down by the bursting of the dot-com bubble as the NASDAQ peaked in 2000 and bottomed out in 2002, and by the September 11 attacks in 2001. The Dow fell below 8,000 in 2002 and remained below 12,000 until 2006.”
“Hussman is a very bright man. He provides compelling analysis and opinions, which I typically find quite interesting. The only problem is that the evidence, including his own track record, demonstrates that investors are best served by ignoring his opinions.
One reason to do so is that he isn’t telling me, or you, anything that other sophisticated investors (such as pension plans, hedge funds and mutual funds) are unaware of. The market has already priced the risks on which Hussman bases his analysis. He just believes he’s smarter than the collective wisdom of the market. Or, at least, he wants you to believe he is, even if he knows better.
If the evidence hasn’t yet convinced you to ignore Hussman’s forecasts, and others like his, ask yourself this question: Do you think you’re better served by following Hussman’s advice or Buffett’s?”