Growth is good! Thanks for the positive news.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket,
At least I am consistent in my view. You on the other hand have consistent inconsistency. Your view changes with the wind.
Igy
I wouldn't say my global view point has changed that much. I figured Fed policy was driving the market in 2018 and I think I was right. The only difference between you and me is that you think it's a big bubble that's going to burst but I think it could just be the new normal (or maybe not, I don't know). I don't marry myself to one position and I like to be open to consider all sides of the argument because I trade futures and options, and digging in is how you go broke in that business
VIX is below 14 now. This is freaking insane. It feels like the algos have taken over the market, fundamentals be damned. There is no reason for the vix to be this low right now. it's stupid.
There was no reason for the market to fall 20% in December and no reason for it to be up nearly 20% this year, by some indices.
I will say that it is amusing to think of all the options guys who paid up for contracts at VIX higher than 25 or 30, to see all the volatility be put on fire sale ever since. I know those are your brothers and sisters Racket, but options I cannot countenance.
All kinds of data show suggest that every time this sort of thing has happened in the past, we've had a very good following 12 months. But it's a small sample of course.
agip wrote:
VIX is below 14 now. This is freaking insane. It feels like the algos have taken over the market, fundamentals be damned. There is no reason for the vix to be this low right now. it's stupid.
There was no reason for the market to fall 20% in December and no reason for it to be up nearly 20% this year, by some indices.
I will say that it is amusing to think of all the options guys who paid up for contracts at VIX higher than 25 or 30, to see all the volatility be put on fire sale ever since. I know those are your brothers and sisters Racket, but options I cannot countenance.
All kinds of data show suggest that every time this sort of thing has happened in the past, we've had a very good following 12 months. But it's a small sample of course.
What's funny is that even people who bet on the market coming back up didn't get that much of a return because VIX has been completely cut in half. Most of my fellow options traders are just confused. A friend of mine even bought shares recently. Can you believe that? That's what this market has reduced us to : buying shares!!!
Anyways, all joking aside, negative economic data is more or less being ignored. Trump will sign a deal with China soon (won't actually have anything meaningful in it like the new NAFTA but you know, it's Trump) and we'll be ATH by like April. Might as well just go long and buy calls and keep position size relatively small and just accept the fact I'll be long on a day the NASDAQ loses like 5%.
The really annoying thing is that stocks are approaching overpriced territory again
“I see the world is fearless again. The higher we go the more bullish people become. The same people that were bullish (and wrong) last year are bullish again and as prices rise relentlessly everybody is a genius again.”
Sven Henrich, Northman Trader.com
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“I see the world is fearless again. The higher we go the more bullish people become. The same people that were bullish (and wrong) last year are bullish again and as prices rise relentlessly everybody is a genius again.”
Sven Henrich, Northman Trader.com
Sven, the village idiot. Thanks for the update. Better luck next market cycle
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Proves the disconnect of the market with fundamentals. Reversion to the mean will only be larger.
For the record, I sold those shares at a modest profit. Igy was “right” in that regard.
Perhaps should change his sign off to: Ho Pats!
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/2951063002
Why are you directing this at me?
Oh sorry Big.
alright, who among you is brave enough to buy Kraft at this price
Catching a falling glass bottle of Heinz 57!
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2018 (with 89% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 69% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 61% have reported a positive revenue surprise.
A "Global Economic Surprise index". What is that?
Seattle,
“The Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices are objective and quantitative measures of economic news. They are defined as weighted historical standard deviations of data surprises (actual releases vs Bloomberg survey median).”
A negative reading of the Economic Surprise Index suggests that economic releases have on balance been lower than consensus.
Igy
Nearly as low as Dec. 24? The markets have been doing quite well since then.
Mouth Breather wrote:
Nearly as low as Dec. 24? The markets have been doing quite well since then.
Evidently the oxygen isn’t getting to your brain. Breathe thru your nose too.