Down goes the Dow

agip,

If it keeps going up I will make more income, so fine with me. I just think it gets quite a bit tougher. It looks to me that the market peaked in September. At least that is my view for now.

Heading over to the Boise State indoor track for a workout in an hour. Looking forward to running in shorts and a t-shirt.

Hope you are well and you get your other 1,000 point rally.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

To me it is more group think than a blatant attempt to deceive retail investors. Much like the real estate agent that promotes home ownership “it is always a good investment.” “Buy and hold” is the advisors mantra when clearly that is a bad decision for anyone over the age of 50 or certainly not the most efficient way to invest. Often see quoted Warren Buffett here and his does everything but “buy and hold.” Of course he and the industry promote the same, hey it is hard making a living selling CDs.

I realize that you have a vested interest in this arena, but lying just reinforces the unfortunate stigma that advisors will tell you anything to further line their own pockets. I shouldn’t have to remind you of your fiduciary duty.

2016 Porsche Cayman wrote:

Racket wrote:

Except for GE of course. It will continue to go down no matter what

Except for yesterday.

And agin today.

Financial Advisor wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

To me it is more group think than a blatant attempt to deceive retail investors. Much like the real estate agent that promotes home ownership “it is always a good investment.” “Buy and hold” is the advisors mantra when clearly that is a bad decision for anyone over the age of 50 or certainly not the most efficient way to invest. Often see quoted Warren Buffett here and his does everything but “buy and hold.” Of course he and the industry promote the same, hey it is hard making a living selling CDs.

I realize that you have a vested interest in this arena, but lying just reinforces the unfortunate stigma that advisors will tell you anything to further line their own pockets. I shouldn’t have to remind you of your fiduciary duty.

A poor financial advisor would have a similar opinion.

Two fer wrote:

2016 Porsche Cayman wrote:

Except for yesterday.

And agin today.

Yeah literally the first time it's had two green days in a row since like September. Good thing I've been shorting it since it October when it was around $12.

Alright, what's the best bull/bear thesis you all have for the G20?

bull : Trump is an insecure baby, desperate for attention and approval and will cut any deal Xi wants so he can "save the economy."

bear : Xi refuses no matter what and decides he wants to bring the US down to bear territory to join their won sh!tty stock market. Plus he's ruler for life and can just out wait Trump.

Bear: does not matter what happens this weekend because over the next two months: global liquidity is tightening and global economies have peaked this cycle on a mountain of deteriorating debt (GE is just one example); investor risk preferences have changed, safe money increasingly desired

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bear: does not matter what happens this weekend because over the next two months: global liquidity is tightening and global economies have peaked this cycle on a mountain of deteriorating debt (GE is just one example); investor risk preferences have changed, safe money increasingly desired

I'd agree with you, but the Fed seems determined to not raise rates "too fast" which in my opinion means keeping the morphine drip going until accidental overdose occurs. Maybe I'm wrong but it's utterly ridiculous the market is freaking out about OMG INTEREST RATES ARE SO HIGH PLEASE NO MORE HIKES when they're still historically low. Talk about wanting your cake and eating it too.

Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bear: does not matter what happens this weekend because over the next two months: global liquidity is tightening and global economies have peaked this cycle on a mountain of deteriorating debt (GE is just one example); investor risk preferences have changed, safe money increasingly desired

I'd agree with you, but the Fed seems determined to not raise rates "too fast" which in my opinion means keeping the morphine drip going until accidental overdose occurs. Maybe I'm wrong but it's utterly ridiculous the market is freaking out about OMG INTEREST RATES ARE SO HIGH PLEASE NO MORE HIKES when they're still historically low. Talk about wanting your cake and eating it too.

Perhaps you are right, but consider the $50 Billion monthly reduction of the Fed Balance Sheet. That effectively tightens the money in circulation.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Racket wrote:

I'd agree with you, but the Fed seems determined to not raise rates "too fast" which in my opinion means keeping the morphine drip going until accidental overdose occurs. Maybe I'm wrong but it's utterly ridiculous the market is freaking out about OMG INTEREST RATES ARE SO HIGH PLEASE NO MORE HIKES when they're still historically low. Talk about wanting your cake and eating it too.

Perhaps you are right, but consider the $50 Billion monthly reduction of the Fed Balance Sheet. That effectively tightens the money in circulation.

$50B is a drop in the bucket and too small to have any significant effect.

“I’ve previously detailed why arithmetic of demographics and productivity suggests a likely central tendency of less than 2% annually for real GDP growth over the coming 8 years, with even 3% growth being both optimistic and rather implausible.” - John Hussman, January 2017

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate was unrevised from the “advance” estimate released in October. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.” - BEA, Nov. 28, 2018

Anyone's guess on the short term reactions to the G20 outcome, but something tells me that if there is a lack of good news, there will be a brief sell-off - like a sharp and drastic dip at the open - and then the market will rally slowly but steadily. Reason being that I bet there's a lot of substantial cash from funds and institutions that has been waiting until this sorts itself out before putting it into the market. Once the bad news is out, they'll figure this is the time to buy the dip and not miss out on the rebound.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

mellon wrote:

Have you ever thought about following commentary that is more closely aligned with actual market performance.

I'm sorry, nothing you post does. Do you think maybe "It's Different This Time".

Finally got your courage back after a couple of up days, huh?

Once again, you make way too much out of these short term corrections.

I know you're holding your breath each time hoping this is the beginning of the big 60% drop that you've been predicting to happen "SOON" for 4 years.

mellon wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Finally got your courage back after a couple of up days, huh?

Once again, you make way too much out of these short term corrections.

I know you're holding your breath each time hoping this is the beginning of the big 60% drop that you've been predicting to happen "SOON" for 4 years.

No the correct interpretation is you disappear every at minor correction and beat your chest at market highs. For four years I have said when market valuations get stretched there is no value.

Halak wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Perhaps you are right, but consider the $50 Billion monthly reduction of the Fed Balance Sheet. That effectively tightens the money in circulation.

$50B is a drop in the bucket and too small to have any significant effect.

Sure, and that has been why the markets have struggle ever since. You need to examine the significance of what fueled the market to new highs then deduce what will change course.

But you are a troll and like bots never think.

mellon wrote:

Once again, you make way too much out of these short term corrections.

I know you're holding your breath each time hoping this is the beginning of the big 60% drop that you've been predicting to happen "SOON" for 4 years.

You will be wishing the drop was only 60% when it hits.

The next one is the big one. 2008-2009 was a warning. And nothing was fixed. Wall Street was bailed out and emboldened and is engaging in the same dishonest and risky behavior that caused the 2008-2009 collapse. And worse.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Halak wrote:

$50B is a drop in the bucket and too small to have any significant effect.

Sure, and that has been why the markets have struggle ever since. You need to examine the significance of what fueled the market to new highs then deduce what will change course.

But you are a troll and like bots never think.

Why do you feel it’s necessary to insult anyone who disagrees with you? Your self-image must really be low.

Idiot alert! wrote:

“I’ve previously detailed why arithmetic of demographics and productivity suggests a likely central tendency of less than 2% annually for real GDP growth over the coming 8 years, with even 3% growth being both optimistic and rather implausible.” - John Hussman, January 2017

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate was unrevised from the “advance” estimate released in October. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.” - BEA, Nov. 28, 2018

that's a self-own on your part, 'idiot alert!'

q/q is different than y/y is different than a full calendar year

agip wrote:

Idiot alert! wrote:

“I’ve previously detailed why arithmetic of demographics and productivity suggests a likely central tendency of less than 2% annually for real GDP growth over the coming 8 years, with even 3% growth being both optimistic and rather implausible.” - John Hussman, January 2017

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate was unrevised from the “advance” estimate released in October. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.” - BEA, Nov. 28, 2018

that's a self-own on your part, 'idiot alert!'

q/q is different than y/y is different than a full calendar year

But Q1 was above 2%, so it would take a disastrous Q4 for Hussman to be right about 2018.