Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://northmantrader.com/2018/11/04/the-fed-crying-has-begun/
Point of fact: no one on here has cried for a Fed rescue.
The only crying has been your incessant whining about the Fed's cutting of interest rates, the President's tax cut, Central bank quantitative easing, etc., etc., etc.
But nice try and glad you got off your roof.
-SP
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
It is fund performance loser.
What is “fund performance loser”?
Seattle,
Well actually there was a lot of the “Fed has your back which makes it different this time.” The Maserati manipulated economy theory. Of course the flip side of both memes is that process has reversed, for example shrinking Fed balance sheet and rising Fed funds rate. I think the author correctly notes how this changed in February and the global markets reflect it.
Off the roof, gutters clean, sprinklers blown out, all the leaves and yard waste bagged. More running and downhill skiing in the months ahead. Oh, and falling equity markets. Should be fun!
Igy
Probably the most relevant chart in the slide deck:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/cycles.png?itok=2zEJyBgR
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Probably the most relevant chart in the slide deck:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/cycles.png?itok=2zEJyBgR
The meaningless charts, graphs, and commentary continues.
mellon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Probably the most relevant chart in the slide deck:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/cycles.png?itok=2zEJyBgRThe meaningless charts, graphs, and commentary continues.
Of course the view of Mr. Meaningless.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PNAV3D4xfHomellon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Probably the most relevant chart in the slide deck:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/cycles.png?itok=2zEJyBgRThe meaningless charts, graphs, and commentary continues.
"The worst of the stock market panic, in my opinion is over." - B.C. Forbes, 10/30/29. This was just after Black Tuesday - the "1929 Crash." After yet another -23% in the next 8 sessions & bounce into 1930, DJIA fell -84% from its 10/30/29 *post-crash* level by July 1932.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
"The worst of the stock market panic, in my opinion is over." - B.C. Forbes, 10/30/29. This was just after Black Tuesday - the "1929 Crash." After yet another -23% in the next 8 sessions & bounce into 1930, DJIA fell -84% from its 10/30/29 *post-crash* level by July 1932.
Your hero!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/DJIA-Big-Monthly-Drop-After-Multi-Year-High-Table-1.jpg?itok=C8cFnoRR
Igy,
I'm struggling to take any meaning from that list. They look to be a series of cherry-picked peaks, because if I look at the whole history of the index (or S&P 500 in its history) I find many similar peaks that are not included (but coincidentally have less dramatic aftermaths). When I click the link I only get the image without explanation of context. Do you have a link to an explanation of the table?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
"The worst of the stock market panic, in my opinion is over." - B.C. Forbes, 10/30/29. This was just after Black Tuesday - the "1929 Crash." After yet another -23% in the next 8 sessions & bounce into 1930, DJIA fell -84% from its 10/30/29 *post-crash* level by July 1932.
this correction wasn't even as bad as the average annual drawdown. (which is 14%)
The weird thing about this one and the February one is the quickness. That's different. I ascribe it to ETFs and a whole lot of fear in the markets. Which is bullish, not bearish.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
"The worst of the stock market panic, in my opinion is over." - B.C. Forbes, 10/30/29. This was just after Black Tuesday - the "1929 Crash." After yet another -23% in the next 8 sessions & bounce into 1930, DJIA fell -84% from its 10/30/29 *post-crash* level by July 1932.
this correction wasn't even as bad as the average annual drawdown. (which is 14%)
The weird thing about this one and the February one is the quickness. That's different. I ascribe it to ETFs and a whole lot of fear in the markets. Which is bullish, not bearish.
agip, I'm open to a Monday morning learning session. If people are fearful and looking for an excuse to sell, wouldn't that be bearish?
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
this correction wasn't even as bad as the average annual drawdown. (which is 14%)
The weird thing about this one and the February one is the quickness. That's different. I ascribe it to ETFs and a whole lot of fear in the markets. Which is bullish, not bearish.
agip, I'm open to a Monday morning learning session. If people are fearful and looking for an excuse to sell, wouldn't that be bearish?
usually the way stock jockeys look at this sort of issue is to ask where the weak hands are. They say to themselves 'we know that around 10% of the money invested in the stock market is owned by people who aren't good at this - these people are flailing about, buying and selling by gut reaction rather than any kind of strategy.'
What usually pulls that money into the market is fear of missing out - when the market feels 'safe.' When those weak hands have fear of missing out. That's when these bad investors throw money at the market. When there is little fear in the market. Often they are the last dollars into the market and it falls afterwards, because when the market feels safe...then those are pretty much the last dollars to be invested. The market is unlikely to go up more because there isnt' enough money on the sidelines to keep things moving upward. There's a classic saying: 'every good investment should inspire fear and terror because the timing seems bad.'
Conversely, when there is a high amount of fear in the markets, stock jockeys think that that 10% of money thrown about by the weak hands is on the sidelines, not invested, because it's too scary. They think that all those who are going to sell have already sold. So a few earnings disappointments or whatnot might not drive down the market...there's no one left to sell, so the market is likely to rise.
I think the key thing here is to figure that in times of high fear the weak hands have already sold. Of course this only works for short term moves. In a 3 year bear market there will be long lasting periods of fear.
The VIX is a good measure of the kind of fear I"m talking about - historically a good time to invest is when the VIX is very high - lately in the high 20s or low 30s. Because when it gets that high, we can be pretty sure that all those weak hands have already sold out of sheer terror, and there is likely little more mass waves of selling that drive down the market. You can track spikes in the VIX (meaning periods of high fear) to good short term trading moments.
L'idiot wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/DJIA-Big-Monthly-Drop-After-Multi-Year-High-Table-1.jpg?itok=C8cFnoRRIgy,
I'm struggling to take any meaning from that list. They look to be a series of cherry-picked peaks, because if I look at the whole history of the index (or S&P 500 in its history) I find many similar peaks that are not included (but coincidentally have less dramatic aftermaths). When I click the link I only get the image without explanation of context. Do you have a link to an explanation of the table?
Here you go:
https://lyonssharepro.com/2018/11/did-octobear-pull-rug-out-from-under-bull/Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Here you go:
https://lyonssharepro.com/2018/11/did-octobear-pull-rug-out-from-under-bull/
Many thanks.
Using the same rules (as best I could; they don't define "multi-year peak" and I've assumed at least 4 year high) for S&P 500 since 1950, I get the following stats for a total of 30 dates meeting the same criteria (multi-year high, dip over the next month at least 8% lower than the peak, and the month ends at least 4% lower than the peak):
2 months: -4.3% on average
3 months: -7.7%
6 months: -4.1%
1 year: -3.6%
2 yr: -4.3%
Those are just the average (arithmetic mean) values, some were much worse, some were much better, but at a glance, given we've gone through the assumed conditions (multi-year peak followed by at least 8% dip sometime in the next month, with the month ending at least 4% lower than the peak), the expected path ahead for the market is generally downward for at least a couple of years.
I've probably got some of the math wrong; I did this very quickly.
Sure. My view is the market (World Equities) have likely peaked this cycle. Fair value is around 60% lower with a range of 20% either way depending on the market or capitalization. Of course you can’t be sure of the timing but that won’t matter since the downside will be significant and historic.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course you can’t be sure of the timing but that won’t matter since the downside will be significant and historic.
Like the bull market!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sure. My view is the market (World Equities) have likely peaked this cycle. Fair value is around 60% lower with a range of 20% either way depending on the market or capitalization. Of course you can’t be sure of the timing but that won’t matter since the downside will be significant and historic.
so you think the market right now should have a PE of around 10, if people were rational?
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sure. My view is the market (World Equities) have likely peaked this cycle. Fair value is around 60% lower with a range of 20% either way depending on the market or capitalization. Of course you can’t be sure of the timing but that won’t matter since the downside will be significant and historic.
so you think the market right now should have a PE of around 10, if people were rational?
You use non-GAAP and Foreard PE. $122.48 (LTM GAAP S&P 500 EPS ) x 16.5 (historic multiple) = 2,020 (fair value), or about 35% lower than today’s close. The $122.48 number is inflated by high margins from low cost of funds, tax cuts, low labor costs, and low material costs. Those tail winds have likely peaked. Lastly, markets don’t just mean revert, they mean invert. I believe central bank liquidity driven speculation has so distorted the market the end will likely drive the S&P 500 down to 900-1,100.