Down goes the Dow

Old Feller wrote:

I thought it was a fair question given the gist of this thread.

Come on, about as thought provoking as “if I bought Bitcoin a week ago and sold today at a profit would I be happy.” How about the schlep who bought Bitcoin in December? Ignorant question really.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Old Feller wrote:

I thought it was a fair question given the gist of this thread.

Come on, about as thought provoking as “if I bought Bitcoin a week ago and sold today at a profit would I be happy.” How about the schlep who bought Bitcoin in December? Ignorant question really.

I disagree. Given the genesis of this thread and the bearishness that you present, the question is very apropos.

Give it a shot.

Answer it yourself unless that is too taxing.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Answer it yourself unless that is too taxing.

I get it. Your unwillingness to respond is due primarily to your disdain for admitting you were wrong. We’ve seen that quite a bit from you. Your non-response is actually quite predictable.

So the answer, quite simply, is that those who listened to the OP (or his doppelgänger) would have spent the ensuing years flirting with investments generating negative buying power. Meanwhile those who ignored the bears would, at this point, likely have doubled or tripled their investment value.

Old Feller wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Answer it yourself unless that is too taxing.

I get it. Your unwillingness to respond is due primarily to your disdain for admitting you were wrong. We’ve seen that quite a bit from you. Your non-response is actually quite predictable.

So the answer, quite simply, is that those who listened to the OP (or his doppelgänger) would have spent the ensuing years flirting with investments generating negative buying power. Meanwhile those who ignored the bears would, at this point, likely have doubled or tripled their investment value.

Has absolutely zero to do with my point of view.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Old Feller wrote:

I get it. Your unwillingness to respond is due primarily to your disdain for admitting you were wrong. We’ve seen that quite a bit from you. Your non-response is actually quite predictable.

So the answer, quite simply, is that those who listened to the OP (or his doppelgänger) would have spent the ensuing years flirting with investments generating negative buying power. Meanwhile those who ignored the bears would, at this point, likely have doubled or tripled their investment value.

Has absolutely zero to do with my point of view.

You are not bearish? Do tell.

No, I believe valuations matter. Of course they don’t matter over the short run and you will learn the difference.

Do tell, but don’t cry.

I think the disconnect stems from the fact that the bulls on this thread interpret the original question to one focused on individual investing and the Ghost of Ogloi is basing his stance in not discussing an individual position (as taken by an individual), but on market direction and value.

Simply put, while the market may (or may not) be overvalued for the last several years (Igy's position), an investor who ignored that fact and invested in that timeframe could have easily made significant profits (the bull's position).

They are two different things, though related. Therein lies the disconnect.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No, I believe valuations matter. Of course they don’t matter over the short run and you will learn the difference.

Do tell, but don’t cry.

You think the last 10 years have been a “short run”?

Say wha? wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No, I believe valuations matter. Of course they don’t matter over the short run and you will learn the difference.

Do tell, but don’t cry.

You think the last 10 years have been a “short run”?

You have to remember, "soon" means anytime in the future. And if your not willing to wait, you are a stupid investor.

Missed opportunities are never a bad thing.

Say wha? wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No, I believe valuations matter. Of course they don’t matter over the short run and you will learn the difference.

Do tell, but don’t cry.

You think the last 10 years have been a “short run”?

Well time is realative isn’t it? Investors often quote historical stock market returns for the last 130 years even though they will never live that long. Or you quoting the last ten years, a market bottom to a market top. Why not cite the last eighteen years where the stock market has returned less than 5% including dividends?

In regards to the fall of 2008 some equities were cheap, but by March of 2009 very much cheaper.

seattle prattle wrote:

I think the disconnect stems from the fact that the bulls on this thread interpret the original question to one focused on individual investing and the Ghost of Ogloi is basing his stance in not discussing an individual position (as taken by an individual), but on market direction and value.

Simply put, while the market may (or may not) be overvalued for the last several years (Igy's position), an investor who ignored that fact and invested in that timeframe could have easily made significant profits (the bull's position).

They are two different things, though related. Therein lies the disconnect.

Seattle,

That is generally an objective view with one caveat. The story is not over until the cycle is complete. My view is the last several years of investor returns will be wipped out shortly. Of course what will be countered in argument is the investor that successfully navigates any downturn. OK, but it is impossible for investors to collectively avoid the downturn because each share of stock must be owned by someone at each moment in time. Few investors avoided the last two downturns. If you question that statement judicously examine your personal investment returns 1/2000 thru 1/2010. It will be interesting to see how investors have fared 1/2010 thru 1/2020. Not too well I believe. We’ll see.

Igy

Your response has no relevance without considering a timeframe. And that makes all the difference as to whether an investment is a win or loss. If you just want to consider a bull market cycle, well, your going to get the answer you expect. If want to consider the market history in its entirety, then it is generally up.

As such, and downturn might be insignificant if considered within a larger timeframe.

I know you are not going to limit yourself to any timeframe. I know you believe that there is something approaching a fair market valuation for equities based on historical norms and markets will eventually return to that valuation, regradless of the timeframe.

Two different metrics. And it becomes frustrating for those that would reference your market forecast from 3 1/2 years ago and how it has been borne out- or not (yet?)- since then.

It's really two different discussions.

excuse me, meant to say a "bear market cycle" in the third sentence.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

My view is the last several years of investor returns will be wipped out shortly.

You are disgusting.

Seattle,

If you recall my market forecast was correct, the next big move was down and not up (-12% and -15%). As for the short run I believe the NASDAQ (your stocks) will be down minus 15-20% sometime before year end. As someone once described, each successive high gets weaker, like the weight lifter going for a bench press personal record. The stain gets higher each attempt until failure.

Since are fond of predictions what is yours for the NASDAQ between now and year end?

Igy

Big Dick Johnson wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

My view is the last several years of investor returns will be wipped out shortly.

You are disgusting.

Why is a realistic and historical market view disgusting? I would think stock hawkers promoting investments that are unjustified should invoke your ire. It will be interesting to see how the public reacts to this bubble’s aftermath.

that's precisely the point. Sure, there are downturns, but they are pauses in an overall uptrend. It only has relevance when you consider the window - both the point of entry and the end. And i believe your forecast was not for a relatively small downturn i.e. 15%) but for a massive 60% correction. Tell me when that occurred since your forecast was made.

As for where Nasdaq will be at the end of the year, i am smart enough to know a) i don't know, and b) investing in the stock market over the long term can be very profitable. I am subscribing to the part b between now and the year.