Down goes the Dow

GOI, maybe you should take your mentor's advice: "There’s no sense in encouraging investors to “get out.” You seem to suggest with virtually every post you make, that people should be out and they are an outright fool to be otherwise. You have no patience for a buy and hold strategy or cost-averaging. You have no appreciation for a short-term trade.

Hussman's view here seems very reasonable to me. He understands markets go up and markets go down. But those with the financial means to do so are probably going to benefit from participating in them.

And as for my investing and trading, since you asked, they on the aggragate have gone better than i imagined they would. Yes, there have been some patches that have gone better than others.

Seattle,

OK. My views are just a counterweight to the wildly bullish and largely inaccurate posts found here. If you disagree that is fine. I am pretty sure Hussman would see your posts as largely expressing exactly his quote. I am happy you feel you can tolerate the risk. Of course as Hussman mentioned you are taking your victory lap at a market top.

Igy

The fact of the matter is, had i chosen to be the type of investor who calls a top and largely gets out, awaiting a better re-entry point, i would have missed out on about a year or maybe two of very good market returns. That said, i also have more cash on hand at this point (and have for the last several months) than i have ever had in my investing career. It would be very difficult to watch, but a significant downturn would have some advantages for me.

Seattle,

Personally I believe that is wise, and I agree you are a far better one to judge that than I. As I have stated clearly I have never advised anyone to be out of the market. For a thirty-year old with $10,000 invested pick a balanced fund or target date fund and let it ride. For the investor with a ten year horizon to needing that money I would think pulling in your horns the best move. That’s all.

Hope you are enjoying your weekend. I am not a golfer but watching the Masters on a stormy day in Eagle, Idaho.

Igy

GOI, glad to hear you're enjoying your weekend.

Stormy day here, too. Trying to get my run in before the next round of rains hit, which should be any minute. Getting the fine tuning done before Boston....

On the investing, it is very tough to call. I have the feeling that if the market goes back up, i might try to de-leverage somewhat and take some profits. But where it is now, i suspect that there's been a bit of an overreaction to the threat of a trade war. We will see.

Have a good one and take care.

-SP

Seattle,

What is your goal for Boston? You must be running well to qualify.

Igy

Thanks. C- goal is to just qualify for next year (3:50-ish). B goal to match my last boston - 3:35 ish, A goal to match my boston and marathon PR- 3:20 ish.

Nursing a bad groin pull so i would be happy with a 3:40. That puts everything into question and i would not be surprised with it locking up at that distance. I am hoping to work it out between now and then.

Thx for asking.

seattle prattle wrote:

But where it is now, i suspect that there's been a bit of an overreaction to the threat of a trade war.

China doesn't think so...they've hit back with vengeance. ☝️Do you think China is going to put up with King Trump's antics? China's the worst country to mess with in a trade war - do you have any idea how many manufacturered goods from China are sold at Wal-Mart? ? Many of us peasants shop at Wal-Mart.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

And you are a charter member of worthless posters with unoriginal handles.

Oh, the irony!

Seattle,

I trust you will have a good effort and meet your expectations. In my younger years the marathon was my best event but now at 67 I gravitate more to the 5,000 and under. Let me now how the race goes.

Igy

There's no way to know for certain, but i am taking the view that a trade war benefits neither country and a negotiated settlement is where it's headed. The markets hate uncertainty and there's good reason for it at the moment, but i don't think a trade war is where we are headed. Of course i could be wrong and there may be more downside before this plays out, so it could get worse before it gets better. But i do think it will get better. Others may disagree.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

“After more than three decades as a professional investor, few things are quite as familiar as the tendency of speculators to declare victory at half-time. In my view, the exodus into passive investing is little more than performance-chasing; the reflection of speculators looking in the rear-view mirror, terrifically impressed at the past outcomes of their own speculation.

Given the obvious irony of his first few words, I've got to agree with the rest of his statement. However, it must be pointed out that "half-time" is relative. I'm sure he views our current time as mid-cycle, but that is also the end game for many. It's relative.

Still, he's right about passive investors being performance chasers, but who isn't? It appears that the rare active investor like GOI is satisfied with mostly standing pat, but most investors are after gains. After all, that's the name of the game.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seattle,

I trust you will have a good effort and meet your expectations. In my younger years the marathon was my best event but now at 67 I gravitate more to the 5,000 and under. Let me now how the race goes.

Igy

Thanks, Igy. The marathon is relatively my worst distance, too, but i do it because it's the big show and if you know anything about me, you know 'I hate to miss out' (as in FOMO investing syndrome). I am really looking forward to wrapping this up and getting back to those shorter distances, too. I have done a massive amount of strengthening and conditioning in the last 9 months, and i woujld like to put it to use in some faster events.

Hope your health issues still allow some exercise. Bet you're looking forward to putting that behind you. Stay strong and pace yourself.

All the best,

-SP

Seattle,

Appreciated. Finished my third round yesterday of six. Not running, white cell depletion causes bone pain, prednisone causes weight gain, so the combination makes running unpleasant. I hit the Y twice a week for core, 60:00 spin bike and free weights, about an 1:30 routine. I have been walking an additional 20 miles a week. Out with the wife in a moment for the second walk of the day. The oncologist yesterday said my response to the therapy and clinicals were that of a 45 year-old. So handling it well so far. I have a mid-cycle PET scan in two weeks so will know more around your race time. Maybe we can both beat expectations.

Igy

seattle prattle wrote:

There's no way to know for certain, but i am taking the view that a trade war benefits neither country and a negotiated settlement is where it's headed. The markets hate uncertainty and there's good reason for it at the moment, but i don't think a trade war is where we are headed. Of course i could be wrong and there may be more downside before this plays out, so it could get worse before it gets better. But i do think it will get better. Others may disagree.

With the BILLIONAIRE Trump running the show? ???

J. Hardy,

I don’t consider myself an active trader, more of a value investor. Not uncommon to see us underperform and look foolish in a hyper valued market. It was not surprising that Julian Robertson retired right before the Tech Bubble burst in 2000, and there were others at the time. Hussman has a great record of being right but it has all been forgotten. The spirit of the times, but that can turn very quickly. When it does many will lose all there gains and then some. Of couse I hope you fare well.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

For the investor with a ten year horizon to needing that money I would think pulling in your horns the best move.

Wonderful...so what's our options investor mastermind? Put our hard earned dough in those awesome 0.5% money market funds or 1.5% CDs? ? This is where the Federal Reserve Aristocracy has rigged the game - ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade doesn't give us savers or people who don't like to gamble in the market with their future source of 401(k) retirement income many options. It's a buy & finance economy driven by massive debt with cheap money created by the Fed Reserve. ~1.5% CDs for the last decade...what a fvcking mean trick to play on us savers in the name of consumer financing & debt! Look at this crap:

The 'people's billionaire', if you will, wants to get re-elected, and he well knows that trashing the world economy and the economic livelihood of his constituency will not get him there. He's not a fool, though he's doing a very good job of appearing to be, imo.

Good going, Igy. Your strengths as a runner are helping a lot, no surprise there. Keep up the good work, and thanks for keeping us updated.