mellon wrote:
Bottom Line:
You called for a big decline 3 years ago, and since. That hasn't happened.
No crime committed! Other than coming across like you've been spot on. I understand you want your clients to believe you know what you're talking about.
You mis-timed the market. Moving out of the market today, may be a smart move. 3, 2, 1 year ago? Not
Personally, I think it's going to run for awhile longer. I may turn out to be as wrong as you have been.
Since you did not answer all the questions, I will.
1. It will only take a decline of -17.8% to get back to the level I first posted on 3/2/2015. Of course you continue to say three years, or that I advocated zero stock holding, both of which are mischaraterizations you purposely promote. And by the -17.8% is not even bear market territory.
2. I interpret your answer to be we are not likely to see a decline of that magnitude in the near future. You may be correct but market history says that occurrence would be highly likely.
Igy