Down goes the Dow

Flagpole wrote:

You are correct about the pattern. Patterns aren't always based on anything real though.

Wow! Just when you think you have read the dumbest possible comment, Flagpole comes up with this.

Dear God help us

Randy Oldman wrote:

la gente está muy loca wrote:

Who thinks that if the value of your portfolio goes from $500k to $250k you have not lost any money until you sell your holdings. Answer: the IRS.

And me.

No wonder these guys preach always being in the market.

When it goes down they don't lose money even though the value of their holdings drop.

And when it goes up, those not in the market lose money even though the value of their holdings remains the same.

K5 wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

You are correct about the pattern. Patterns aren't always based on anything real though.

Wow! Just when you think you have read the dumbest possible comment, Flagpole comes up with this.

Dear God help us

do you have anything of value to offer, or are you just here to insult people?

peanuts wrote:

do you have anything of value to offer, or are you just here to insult people?

I insult only in response to pathetic attempts to skew and smear my comments. I do note that you are not calling out all the buffoons who attack me -- which makes me assume you are one of those buffoons.

Anyway my advice is of value -- get the hell out of the market. Ignore at your own peril

Hold onto your hats today.

Nikkei drops to 4-month low on strong yen triggered by weak U.S. data

TOKYO, Feb 4 - Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 4.2 percent to a four-month low on Tuesday, as the yen's rise hurt sentiment after weaker-than-expected American factory data created worries about the U.S. economy. The benchmark Nikkei, extending its losing streak to a fourth day, ended 610.66 points lower at 14,008.47, the lowest closing since Oct. 8. It was the biggest one-day percentage decline since June 2013. The Nikkei fell decisively below its 200-day moving average,

K5 wrote:

peanuts wrote:

do you have anything of value to offer, or are you just here to insult people?

I insult only in response to pathetic attempts to skew and smear my comments. I do note that you are not calling out all the buffoons who attack me -- which makes me assume you are one of those buffoons.

you just contradicted yourself

peanuts wrote:

K5 wrote:

I insult only in response to pathetic attempts to skew and smear my comments. I do note that you are not calling out all the buffoons who attack me -- which makes me assume you are one of those buffoons.

you just contradicted yourself

See. It's comments devoid of any truth or logic like this that result in my insulting people.

K5 wrote:

peanuts wrote:

you just contradicted yourself

See. It's comments devoid of any truth or logic like this that result in my insulting people.

devoid of truth? you contradicted yourself twice.

Enjoy the ride down peanuts.

No problems for you. I mean stock values dropping is not like losing money in your world, is it?

K5, I am a bit confused. On one hand, you say to everyone on this thread get out of the market, but on the other hand, you are telling me to not cash out my super low-risk mutual fund. Which is it? Thanks.

SP 500 corrections since March '09 low

% chg Duration

SP 500 peak Date Sp 500 trough Date change From peak (in aprx wks)

1,150.45 1/22/2010 1,044.50 2/5/2010 -105.95 -9.21% 3 wks

1,219.80 4/27/2010 1,010.91 7/8/2010 -208.89 -17.12% 10 wks First whiff of Euro Austerity Crisis

1,370.58 5/6/2011 1,074.77 10/5/2011 -295.81 -21.58% 20 wks Europe, Recession call by ECRI, US debt limit crisis

1,422.38 4/4/2012 1,266.74 6/4/2012 -155.64 -10.94% 8 wks Greece election - austerity chosen over Nationalist hardliner

1,474.51 9/18/2012 1,343.35 11/23/2012 -131.16 -8.90% 8 wks Post-election sell-off

1,687.18 5/24/2013 1,560.33 6/24/2013 -126.85 -7.52% 4 wks Higher rates: 10-year Treasury yld rose from 1.60% to 2.60% in 4 wks time (This is when you alledgedly sold)

AVG -12.55% 8 - 9 wks No problems for you. I mean stock values dropping is not like losing money in your world, is it?

la gente está muy loca wrote:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461

A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation by Mebane T. Faber. In this paper we update our 2006 white paper “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation” with new data from the 2008-2012 period.

This is why I keep coming back to letsrun. If you can stomach all the juvenile responses, occasionally you find a real gem.

Thanks for posting this. I'm still reading the paper, so please forgive any misunderstanding...

The ^GSPC is still 5.7% above its 10-month moving average so we could still see more decline, but the overall trend is still a bullish. Right?

My guess is that the recent move of the ^GSPC below its 100-day moving average would presage a further decline to test the 10-month moving average. Correct? Or is that not part of the analysis? (The DJI moving averages would be broken sooner, but a 5.7% decline in the DJI would be around 14,400 for those who don't follow the ^GSPC.)

Yes, you are confused

la gente está muy loca wrote:

SP 500 corrections since March '09 low

% chg Duration

SP 500 peak Date Sp 500 trough Date change From peak (in aprx wks)

1,150.45 1/22/2010 1,044.50 2/5/2010 -105.95 -9.21% 3 wks

1,219.80 4/27/2010 1,010.91 7/8/2010 -208.89 -17.12% 10 wks First whiff of Euro Austerity Crisis

1,370.58 5/6/2011 1,074.77 10/5/2011 -295.81 -21.58% 20 wks Europe, Recession call by ECRI, US debt limit crisis

1,422.38 4/4/2012 1,266.74 6/4/2012 -155.64 -10.94% 8 wks Greece election - austerity chosen over Nationalist hardliner

1,474.51 9/18/2012 1,343.35 11/23/2012 -131.16 -8.90% 8 wks Post-election sell-off

1,687.18 5/24/2013 1,560.33 6/24/2013 -126.85 -7.52% 4 wks Higher rates: 10-year Treasury yld rose from 1.60% to 2.60% in 4 wks time (This is when you alledgedly sold)

AVG -12.55% 8 - 9 wks No problems for you. I mean stock values dropping is not like losing money in your world, is it?

Who are you responding to?

Fisky. No decision is made until the end of the month. If 1% or more below 10-month average then move into cash. Here is Faber's website with a timing model for some ETFs. http://mebfaber.com/timing-model/

K5 wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

You are correct about the pattern. Patterns aren't always based on anything real though.

Wow! Just when you think you have read the dumbest possible comment, Flagpole comes up with this.

Dear God help us

Probably not Flagpole if this thread's history is any indication.

Naturally, I am correct about the pattern...

global stocks now down 5.6% from their peak

agip wrote:

global stocks now down 5.6% from their peak

How can comments like this be considered interesting?

Just Wondering Again wrote:

agip wrote:

global stocks now down 5.6% from their peak

How can comments like this be considered interesting?

They're interesting to those of us who are interested in investing.

2/4/14 pathetic "rally" in the face of a major downturn.

Reminiscent of 2008. A couple of days of major decreases followed by a day or two of irrational rallies and repeat for a month or two -- then the gloves come off and the real collapse ensues.